re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Random tweets

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Indian state-owned oil refineries are negotiating with Russia for the long-term import of oil, Reuters reported.

According to the publication, the countries have not yet agreed on the final terms of the imports.

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LINK

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Kremlin media say Russian authorities are preparing to block YouTube in September

The Kremlin publication Gazeta. Ru, citing a source close to the presidential administration, writes that the popular video service is planned to be finally blocked. This information was also confirmed to journalists by a source in a company that collects information for law enforcement agencies.

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov, meanwhile, said that Russia has no plans to restrict access to the platform. According to him, it is a question of problems with equipment.

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LINK

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The Office of the Prime Minister of Canada has announced the allocation of more than $280 million to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 aircraft and purchase the necessary equipment for their use in the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

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LINK

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Ukraine is not ready for a counterattack in 2024 due to slow deliveries of Western weapons, The New York Times has said

As the publication notes, delivery of the aid promised at the NATO summit will take weeks, if not months, and some of the announced weapons have not even been purchased or produced yet.

The Pentagon predicts that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be on the defensive for at least six months without significant success.

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LINK

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Australia announced its largest tranche of military aid to Ukraine, totaling $250 million, ABC News reported

The aid package will include missiles for air defense systems, air-to-ground munitions for aviation, anti-tank weapons and artillery ammunition.

Australia's total military aid to Ukraine has reached $1.1 billion.

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LINK

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Bro, you are no way able to tell someone to take it to the poliboard.

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100% truth.

Who died and left Karl Marx thread moniter?

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Indian state-owned oil refineries are negotiating with Russia for the long-term import of oil, Reuters reported.

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Russia prepares to receive BOHICA in the negotiations. Their only good news is that ULCC rates have dropped with China importing less crude, though crude oil prices are likely to drop globally in the coming months with less demand.

Wtf....dd he throw, and hit a drone with a fish?

that's almost as good as Stone Toss, mate

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Remember that this is not true and SirWinston is a liar

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You absolutely said it in this thread, mate. And SteelersBravesDawg said hes "right there with you" (he later retracted, but to my knowledge you have not.

Polls released for public viewing are not so great at this point.

Trump's campaigned was resigned to losing in 2916 until a few weeks before the election internal polls showed the Bernie faction staying home instead of voting Democrat

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The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1262 and 1163 respectively. In total Russia likely lost (killed and wounded) in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months.

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yeah very believable

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Polls released for public viewing are not so great at this point.

Trump's campaigned was resigned to losing in 2916 until a few weeks before the election internal polls showed the Bernie faction staying home instead of voting Democrat

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Polls before the conventions don't usually mean that much...

but it wasn't the "Sanders voters" who made the difference in 2016...

well, Left Independents and Left Democrats WHO RELIABLY VOTE are squeaky wheels... they always have some big complaint and threat to not vote... but they're trapped, they realize inching towards their goals is better than having things pushed way in the other direction, and after the Nader thing in 2000 and then not showing up for John Kerry in 2004 because he wasn't actually "end the war in Iraq" but "win the war in Iraq" and all of the things that happened they sobered up. They hold their nose and vote for the Dem candidate and complain endlessly about it.

But the problem for Sanders was that he was relying on getting all of those people in America who don't vote (or even bother to register) on the rolls and voting for him. It didn't really work, but among those who actually did register for the first time and vote in primaries, when he was out they did what they always do... not bother to vote.

The portrayal of Hillary's inevitability actually depressed voter turnout in African American districts in PA, WI, and MI... among people who have to take time off of work to go stand in long lines, etc. Why should they have bothered if she was going to win anyway... plus, there was a natural comedown in that community after the Obama Presidency...

Nate Silver got vilified by people for creating "the false impression of the inevitability of a Clinton victory," but a hardcore data nerd didn't realize that people don't understand statistical probability... Silver's old protegé Harry Enten on CNN cracks me up because no matter the subject he's so exited about the numbers... "if you look at this data, childhood cancer is way up over 10 years ago. That's incredible, a ten-fold increase!!!" "Uh, calm down Harry... those numbers are people."

anyway... "likely voters" is a big thing.

In 2016 Trump benefitted from few Republicans not thinking he was just another Republican, ultimately, and voting for him like it was just another election... and then he did pull in a lot of former non-voters, and in PA, WI, and MI - combined with underperformance in those reliably Democratic districts mentioned above - it put him over the top... and nobody but Michael Moore (who didn't come to the conclusion for the right reason with the right group of people, really) expected it.

In 2020 it was different...those districts DID show up and reliably vote for the Democratc candidate...

And while Trump brought in even more first-time voters (two guys I know here in Lousiana just told me they registered and voted for the first time in their lives in their 60s in 2020 to vote for Trump) it was offset by a lot of reliable Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents not voting (for the first time, which is... notable) OR actually voting for the Democratic candidate. That means nothing in most Red States, but in states like Georgia and Arizona it delivered a surprise result.

And that's what's weird... and why the polls that are the most valuable to pay attention to are the ones focused on "likely voters."

and the weird thing about unreliable voters? They bother to show up IF they're convinced their candidate is going to win. If they think he's going to. lose they don't bother... which is counter-intuitive to me... but "Fairweather Johnsons" is a thing. And that's also why all the talk of stolen elections and the deep state and all of that actually does as much to depress voter turnout among fickle Trump voters as encourage it, and why incumbents usually have an advantage.

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There was a definite bump for Trump and decline for Biden after the Debate; however, as you say the overall difference didn't move all that much.

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I took a lot of Poli Sci classes as electives...

Voters have a "head in the sand" reflex... they don't wallow in their chosen candidate doing something badly.... they turn away and ignore it, or if they can't and are shaken, in a couple of days they talk themselves into excusing it.

There also are no "swing voters" except in drastic circumstances. There are fickle independents who take turns showing up or not ... not the same people flip-flopping from side to side every couple of years. When people crossover to vote it's usually a permanent realignment in their voting preferences (see: the entire South starting in 2000). And as I mentioned in the post above, what motivates those fickle independents to vote is the belief that their preferred candidate is going to win anyway. Like the people who only show up to games when their preferred team is winning.

I was texting with a friend who gets angry at me for saying Biden should step aside... like really pissed. I was watching the press conference last night, he was refusing to: "it doesn't matter, I don't care. You're all idiots for freaking out and are making a problem where there isn't one. We don't have a King, we have a President who has people that make sure stuff functions... or Trump would've done really dumb things had there not been Bolton and Pompeo and people making sure he couldn't..."

That's the dependable Biden voter. George Clooney and the rest all make the caveat that they will vote for Biden and do whatever they have to in order to get him elected even if they're saying he should bow out... they're trapped.

There was a guy who joked in 2020 he was going to enter the Democratic primary after having his name legally changed to "Not Trump."