re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Marjorie Taylor Greene and others are referring to this as an "enemies of the State" list and an "assassination list," because of course they are...

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Broken clocks and such

Random tweets

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Putin said that there are about 700,000 Russian servicemen in the war in Ukraine

Last December, he said that the Russian grouping in the "Special military operation zone" amounted to 617,000 people.

In late May, UK intelligence said that the total number of losses of the Russian army in Ukraine killed and wounded reached 500 thousand people.

"Mediazona" and the Russian service of the BBC, in their turn, believe that 136,500 servicemen of the Russian army and the self-proclaimed "LPR" and "DPR" could have died during the war.

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LINK

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At the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, 92 countries will be represented, including Ukraine.

There will also be representatives from the Council of Europe, the European Commission, the European Council, the European Parliament, the OSCE, the United Nations, and the Organization of American States. Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew will also attend.

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LINK

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A total of 57 of the 160 invited countries will be represented by presidents, vice-presidents or heads of government at the Peace Summit in #Switzerland

Another 35 countries will be represented by lower-level officials - ambassadors, ministers and state secretaries.

Representatives of the remaining countries, including China, declined to attend the meeting.

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LINK

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The G7 countries have estimated the damage to Ukraine at $486 billion

The leaders of the G7 countries adopted a joint statement at a summit in Italy, which says that Russia should compensate Ukraine for the damage of $486 billion. Earlier, the World Bank estimated the cost of Ukraine's reconstruction at this amount.

The G7 joint statement also noted that they would "continue to seek legal ways to recover funds from Russia". On the first day of the summit, the G7 leaders agreed to grant Kyiv a $50 billion loan, which is planned to be repaid from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.

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LINK

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Next week, the situation in the Ukrainian energy system will be significantly more complicated than this one.

This was stated by the head of "Ukrenergo" Kudrytskyi.

Among the reasons is the projected increase in energy consumption due to the return of heat and the removal of another NPP power unit for repair.

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LINK

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??Poland will help allies in the Baltic Sea to detect ships of the "shadow fleet" that illegally transport russian oil products.

This was reported by the press service of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

"[...] their number is estimated at several hundred, but few have been identified today", – the department notes.

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LINK

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Defense Secretary Austin: Since 2022, at least 350,000 Russian troops have been KIA or WIA. Ukrainian forces have sunk, destroyed or damaged 24 Russian vessels in Black Sea. Since September of last year Russia has lost more than 2,600 combat vehicles.

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LINK

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Some of the right-wing parties that gained seats in Europe are in favor of ending support for Ukraine. Putin's "peace plan" gives them ammunition to pressure domestic politics to force a Ukrainian surrender.

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the recent elections amount to not that much either way, with no real power

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You have a lot of people, particularly in the younger generation, who believe its okay to try to get people fired, beat up,

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Happened to Jane Fonda's annual peace march down PCH in Los Angeles. When they crossed the line into Orange County, teens would pull protestors out of cars and beat them up.

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As I posted earlier this morning, we now have very solid data that Russia will run out of IFVs by mid-December.

The accelerating AD losses, especially in Crimea, will only happen faster once F-16s arrive, and those planes will hit a number of targets in Crimea. Russian control of Crimea is only going to get more and more tenuous every day.

The new sanctions that forced Russia to stop all trading in dollars and Euros will only accelerate inflation and the inevitable Russian financial collapse. I posted before that they maybe have enough reserves to last another year, but now I don't think that they will last that long.

In the meantime, on the Ukrainian side:

- US military aid has renewed their ability to fight

- They have stopped the Russian advance in northern Kharkiv

- Ukraine now has solid commitments of five Patriot systems, with strong possibilities for two more. They also have the French promise to train Ukrainian pilots on Mirage fighters and get those planes in the sky by the end of the year. There are also a number of other air defense systems promised, including another SAMP/T system, eight NASAMS, and more IRIS-T. By the end of the year, Ukraine will be able to protect itself from Russian missile attacks.

- The new conscription law has substantially fixed the Ukrainian personnel problem, at least once new recruits get trained.

- The relaxation of Western restrictions on hitting targets in Russia will stress Russian supply lines and result in the increased destruction of Russian military equipment.

- F-16s will enable Ukraine to much better target the Russian deep rear.

- US and European production of artillery shells has increased to the point that Ukrainian forces can always fire back. Production next year will approach Russian levels.

- The Swiss conference beginning tomorrow will formally commit most of the world to the restoration of Ukraine's 2014 borders. With the elevated sanctions, so many nations are now getting squeezed into choosing sides, and they aren't choosing Russia.

- The $50 billion that will soon be going to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets will guarantee Ukraine's financial security through 2025 and enable them to invest even more in the drone production that constantly hits Russian airbases, refineries, ships, etc.



Seriously, what's the theory for how Russia is going to win? When the Russian economy has collapsed and they don't have any armored vehicles left, when Russian air defense has collapsed to the point that Ukrainian drones rain down daily in a torrent of Russian destruction?

Tell me what I am missing in my analysis.

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Russia has nukes and Ukraine is not a NATO ally.

Ukrainian conscription isn't a win. It means all their actual soldiers are dead and now they are snatching up 40 year olds and dudes with a bum knee, and people who will run away or defect at the first firecracker if they don't get bombed in their bunker first. Ukraine is running out of conscription options. It's basically Stripes at this point.

Russia started a war. Russia has won the war they started. Russia is a-hole. But facts are facts. No amount of military jargon and fancy acronyms for weapons systems change that fact.
Perhaps Russia is facing similar issues, but no amount of US money and weapons and training seems to have helped Ukraine take back any of that land. How much longer should this war go on? Do you support escalation to a full scale global war?

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But facts are facts.

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Major Russian companies have lost between 1/3 and 1/2 of their value since Jan 2022. Russia is now dependent on China's good will to stay solvent.

That is NOT a win

Something really funny about Russia and Putin being all macho and shite. It's major corporations have all the ESG stuff on their websites like the most woke corporations in the US have. This includes corporations involved in banking, oil and gas.

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Russia started a war. Russia has won the war they started.

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Even if Ukraine somehow handed all of itself over to Russia today, Russia has lost. Russia's invasion caused previously-neutral Finland--which shares a long border with Russia--and Sweden, which has a surprisingly-capable military, to join NATO. From that standpoint alone, Russia at best gets a 'one step forward, two steps back' result from invading Ukraine.

Beyond that, Russia has made itself a pariah state for another generation. It desperately needs foreign investment and trade, but those have gone way down, and seem very unlikely to recover for decades. It was bankrolling itself by selling gas and oil to Europe, but that's over. Now its main trade will be based on what China and India can get from Russia at bargain-basement prices.

And of course, the actual war--"has won"?! Russia went from January 2022 controlling, what, 10% of Ukraine, to today controlling 20%? The near-term prospects for a major change in that look pretty low. If anything, Russia may have only six months to a year before something gets critically bad: destroyed / depleted air defenses that allow Ukraine's new fighters to attack with relative impunity, a lack of replacement armored personnel carriers, and/or an economic meltdown. Ukraine seems to be considerably less vulnerable to that sort of acute collapse.

Comments have been made that Russian BMD's are now rarely seen at the front, only BMP's even in Airborne units