re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

So I understand correctly, only men 27 or older were being conscripted, and now it is down to 25.

So if I'm 23 in Ukraine, I'm not being conscripted.

Is this what you are saying? I want to learn.

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So I understand correctly, only men 27 or older were being conscripted, and now it is down to 25.

So if I'm 23 in Ukraine, I'm not being conscripted.

Is this what you are saying? I want to learn.

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Uh. Yeah. That's correct.

If you want to learn, do some reading and ask questions. Don't come storming in here throwing around "facts" like Russia took half the country and the weapons the US sent had no effect.

Because it makes you look like.....well. It makes you look...misinformed.

And you can also do some basic math. Ukraine still has all the men between the ages of 18 and 25 that have yet to be conscripted. And there are 700 men who turn 25 every day in Ukraine. About 400 of those are eligible for military service. So about 150,000 men per year class. And there are still 7 year classes that have not yet even been activated.

So Ulrane has at least 1 million men in reserve, with 150,000 maturing each year. They can sustain the current levels of casualties.

Meanwhile Russia is losing amror, air defense systems, and artillery tubes at a rate many times greater than their replacement value.

The clock is ticking for Russia much faster than for Ukraine.

Why do you think Putin is now on the news complaining that Ukraine won't take its peace deal? Does that sound like a guy who is winning?

If you want to learn, do your homework.

Budanov needs to think about letting foreign intelligence workers into the GUR because they have some leaks still in the high command that need to be weeded out then executed for treason. The ATACMS strike on the airfield that a squadron of Su-34 fighter bombers was obviously leaked just before the strike because Russia got every aircraft out just before they hit. It shouldn’t be that hard to root some of these fricks out. Not that many people are in the loop for something like an attack on an airfield and their air defenses. Find their arse and make an example out of them.

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Meanwhile Russia is losing amror, air defense systems, and artillery tubes at a rate many times greater than their replacement value.

The clock is ticking for Russia much faster than for Ukraine.

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Right, deeprig9, you need to see the list of daily losses that were documented yesterday. Andrew Perpetua and a couple of helpers literally watch hundreds of Telegram videos every day that have been uploaded by soldiers and units on both sides of the conflict.

A lot of it is gruesome stuff: Andrew wrote a couple of days ago about a video of a guy blown in half who was jiggling his intestines in horror for a couple of seconds before he died.

But from near the beginning of the conflict, Andrew has had one of the best maps of the frontlines. Watching and geolocating the videos helps him know who's controlling what. And if you go to his map, he links a lot of the videos to the spots on the map, so if an Abrams tank is damaged, you can see exactly where it happened

Lots of people, though, wanted to see his daily lists of the equipment destroyed. So, Andrew started posting those on twitter, with a link to a database containing the links to the actual videos, so you can watch any video and see if you agree with his classification of the result.

Here's today's list of the losses he counted yesterday:





And what we are telling you is that Russia cannot lose 20 tanks and 22 IFVs in a day, because Russia only makes 20 new tanks per month and refurbishes 20 more.

Russia is going to run out of IFVs by mid-December, and we're already seeing the evidence of that on the front lines. Most of the Kharkiv assault has been done with dismounted infantry, with the result that Russia has suffered very high casualty rates. Russia increasingly uses motorcycles and Chinese Desertcross ATVs, because they are already rationing IFVs.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite for "peace" negotiations in Ukraine, including the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, in an attempt to undermine the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.

Putin proposed to establish an alternative Eurasian and world security system with support from People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping, likely to undermine NATO.

The Kremlin has frequently timed the intensification of its information operations, including negotiations, to coincide with major policy debates in the West in order to influence Western decision-making.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued to rail against Western colonialism while ignoring Russia's imperial history and contemporary Russian imperialist aspirations to dominate Russia’s neighbors in eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.

Medvedev also promoted Kremlin information operations that aim to exploit Moldovan identity politics in order to disrupt Moldova's European Union (EU) accession by destabilizing Moldovan society.

Medvedev also threatened Armenia on the eve of Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan's attendance at the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.

An unnamed senior US Department of Defense official reportedly said that the Biden Administration has no imminent plans to lift restrictions prohibiting Ukrainian forces from striking military targets in Russia’s operational and deep rear areas in Russian territory with US-provided weapons.

Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes against Russia on the night of June 13 to 14.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 14 that there are currently almost 700,000 Russian personnel in the "special military operation zone," which includes both occupied Ukraine and areas within Russia bordering Ukraine, during the meeting with participants of the "Time of Heroes" program.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued to rail against Western colonialism while ignoring Russia's imperial history and contemporary Russian imperialist aspirations to dominate Russia’s neighbors in eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.

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That’s rich. The invasion of Ukraine is a colonialist operation, at its core.

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They took over half the country,

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This is objectively and verifiably false by every measure, where do you people come from?

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Last year, only men 27 and over were conscripted into the army.

This year, men 25 and over are eligible to be conscripted into the army.

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It is striking that so many of the men who are buried in France from D-day were 18, 19 and 20 years old.

Something I was wondering about last night when I was laying in bed, why are we not doing more to help Ukraine by bringing down the cost of oil? High oil prices is what keeps the Russian economy afloat and allows them the prosecute their invasion of Ukraine.

According to YCharts, the average price of a barrel of crude oil on February 28, 2022 was $93.54. Today it’s still at $78.07. If the West, particularly the US made a concerted effort to crash the price of oil, this would cripple Russia. We’ve done it before. Low oil prices played a pivotal role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Why aren’t we doing it now? And yes I know production is up in the US right now. But at the same time we’re blocking off more and more lands from oil exploration and making it clear to the world that in the future we will produce less, not more, oil. We should be doing the opposite. We should be handing oil leases like they’re candy. Also, we should be making diplomatic efforts to OPEC countries to produce more. But oddly enough, we’re not doing either of these things. Doesn’t make any sense.

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There doesn't appear to be a lot of actual planning behind our war effort. I don't think anyone writing up these aid packages has asked the question, what do they need to win?

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That leads to some questions:

1. Is this because of ignorance?

Or

2. Is it because of something else?

If it’s the later, what’s that something else?

I ask these questions because the vulnerability of Russia’s economy to the price of oil is universally known.