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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/14/24 at 8:31 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 6/14/24 at 8:31 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Putin is going to try to very gradually prepare the Russian populace for the upcoming defeat. Doing that successfully without getting overthrown in a coup would be the greatest accomplishment of Putin's career.
Agreed. From this point onwards, everything Putin says or does is for one purpose - to stay in power and thus stay breathing. Terms, threats, boasts or playing the victim are all just means to that end.
1
Posted on 6/14/24 at 9:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Agreed. From this point onwards, everything Putin says or does is for one purpose - to stay in power and thus stay breathing. Terms, threats, boasts or playing the victim are all just means to that end.
Especially loss of Crimea. Quite frankly, if Ukraine were to give up the part of Donbas occupied pre 2022, it would be an economic gain due the heavily subsidized coal mines.
Crimea is must for Ukraine to take for any security.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 9:24 am to CitizenK
quote:
Especially loss of Crimea. Quite frankly, if Ukraine were to give up the part of Donbas occupied pre 2022, it would be an economic gain due the heavily subsidized coal mines.
Crimea is must for Ukraine to take for any security
Even the parts of the Donbas that Russia has conquered in the last two years are really of little value to Ukraine, because they are destroyed. For example, rebuilding Mariupol would cost billions, and it would never me the joyful Ukrainian city that it was -- the city is a cemetery of mass graves.
The economic value of the Donbas was in coal (which, as you point out, is now worthless) and in manufacturing (which is completely destroyed). Ukraine would trade all of it for the rest of its south coast and Crimea.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 9:47 am to CitizenK
quote:and Panama, and Grenada
You are missing Argentina in the 1980's as a result of their invasion of the Falklands
Posted on 6/14/24 at 10:20 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Even the parts of the Donbas that Russia has conquered in the last two years are really of little value to Ukraine, because they are destroyed. For example, rebuilding Mariupol would cost billions, and it would never me the joyful Ukrainian city that it was -- the city is a cemetery of mass graves.
The economic value of the Donbas was in coal (which, as you point out, is now worthless) and in manufacturing (which is completely destroyed). Ukraine would trade all of it for the rest of its south coast and Crimea.
1. Mariupol was where a massive steel mill was, and likely major items of the plant survived blasts.
2. Donbas coal was the heavily subsidized part and sucked more from the economy than it gave to the economy.
3. All of this being said, Shell had the concessions to develop tight shale oil and gas in the Donbas pre 2014. They hadn't been there long enough to get the fluid and proppant right to show productive wells with only a few drilled and completed. The potential is there, and a lot of it.
4. Should the oil/gas plays work out, it would have a source for its chemical, including nitro type pharma for heart and ED meds with THE base chemical, ammonia, from natural gas for such pharma meds. Huge complex was for heart and ED meds in Sverodonetsk.
5. Mariupol was the home of where most of the neon was obtained for the world and very necessary for lots of computer chip manufacturing for starters. Its not just a Vegas sort of gas. Extraction was from the gases of the massive steel mill. Further infrastructure has to be developed put that anywhere else.
6. See Germany Post WWII where EVERYTHING was bombed out
Posted on 6/14/24 at 10:27 am to CitizenK
quote:
Shell had the concessions to develop tight shale oil and gas in the Donbas pre 2014. They hadn't been there long enough to get the fluid and proppant right to show productive wells with only a few drilled and completed. The potential is there, and a lot of it.
But not compared to the potential offshore Crimea, correct?
Posted on 6/14/24 at 10:37 am to GOP_Tiger
Whoever controls the Kerch strait controls access to the Sea of Azov. If Ukraine were to wind up with Crimea they would control the strait. It seems reasonable in this scenario that Ukraine would allow Russia access to the Sea of Azov if and only if the western shore of the Sea of Azov was returned to its rightful owner.
Also, do we know of any O&G exploration that has been done in the Sea of Azov?
Also, do we know of any O&G exploration that has been done in the Sea of Azov?
Posted on 6/14/24 at 10:59 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
rebuilding Mariupol would cost billions, and it would never be the joyful Ukrainian city that it was -- the city is a cemetery of mass graves.
See Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Tokyo. It can be done. Hopefully with seized Russian funds. Dresden was somewhat rebuilt by the Russians but it was not a joyful place when I visited shortly after the wall fell. The Russian built apartment flats were just hideous. Hopefully they've been leveled and rebuilt.
quote:
Mariupol was where a massive steel mill was, and likely major items of the plant survived blasts.
The company I work for had a large order to be produced in April of 2022. It was a huge plant and made high quality steel at a competitive price. We don't buy Chinese steel which is cheaper but has shoddy standards. I'm not sure how much survived since it was pounded for an extended time while the the Azov battalion was dug in in tunnels underneath. But heavy equipment is much more resilient than buildings or people. And a lot of the support structure is probably OK (port facilities especially). Unless the Chinese are getting much better at steel production it's probably worth rebuilding. Russia may be busy doing that now.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 11:20 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Panama
OJC was really more serving a no-knock arrest warrant than an invasion. The PDF just got stupid and froggy and shot back. Probably the "best" way for an infantryman to get a CIB in the whole history of US combat.
Manuel Noriega was the king of FAFO at the time.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 11:22 am to GOP_Tiger
Chevron had offshore and Exxon had west of Dnipro. Ukraine was once a pretty big producer of oil but those fields are depleted. Wherever there was oil, the source rock below was shale. So there is still oil with newer techniques of old technology.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 11:29 am to Tigris
quote:
Dresden was somewhat rebuilt by the Russians but it was not a joyful place when I visited shortly after the wall fell. The Russian built apartment flats were just hideous. Hopefully they've been leveled and rebuilt.
When I was last there in 2018 there had been a lot of rebuilding but primarily in the city center and old town which are mostly gorgeous now but you still see lots of old Soviet buildings but even they seem less depressing than they were in the 90s. The city center continues to creep out with gorgeous new buildings but Dresden still shows the scars of Soviet occupation maybe in a few decades it will be fully healed from all the Allie's scars.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 11:36 am to Tigris
quote:
But heavy equipment is much more resilient than buildings or people. And a lot of the support structure is probably OK (port facilities especially). Unless the Chinese are getting much better at steel production it's probably worth rebuilding. Russia may be busy doing that now.
When my former employer won a project for some blast furnaces and coke ovens at Bethlehem Steel, Sparrows Point, MD, I couldn't get over how massive the size of equipment and what sure looked to me like double or triple the amount of steel needed used for all the equipment there. Robust doesn't even begin to describe how old steel mills were built. Soviet era GOST standards pretty much created a market for Soviet steel, everything had to be double the steel necessary at least in refining. Say a hydrotreater reactor which would be 2 inches thick here would be 4 inches thick there. Thus double demand created
This post was edited on 6/14/24 at 11:40 am
Posted on 6/14/24 at 11:50 am to cypher
quote:
Also, do we know of any O&G exploration that has been done in the Sea of Azov?
I don't think so. The concessions awarded to Chevron were for Crimea and Black Sea to the west of Crimea. The Sea of Azov was more Russian than Ukrainian before 2014 due land bordering it.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 11:52 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Apologies for going off topic, but speaking of Euro politics after the EU elections last week, take a look at the hilarious lengths French politicians are going to in an attempt to try to save their plush jobs:
"These have undoubtedly been the wildest 72 hours in French politics in my lifetime. Pretty incredible stuff." LINK
Who knew the French made such great memes?
Don't you wish we had a parliamentary system? So much excitement!!!
Posted on 6/14/24 at 11:53 am to CitizenK
What I did not mention is that the Sea of Azov is not very deep at all, the ports along it cannot take large ships due water depth limitations.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 12:00 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Not an enemies list designed to target anyone, but an attempt to identify expressed beliefs common to known Russian disinformation. A great bookmark for reference purposes.
Marjorie Taylor Greene and others are referring to this as an "enemies of the State" list and an "assassination list," because of course they are...
Posted on 6/14/24 at 12:19 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
A few different takes from Russias new peace proposal. But I'm sure some on here will still blame Ukraine/the West for failure to achieve peace.
I've seen a few takes on this, but has anyone else brought up recent European elections?
Some of the right-wing parties that gained seats in Europe are in favor of ending support for Ukraine. Putin's "peace plan" gives them ammunition to pressure domestic politics to force a Ukrainian surrender.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 12:21 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
don't see either side really feeling like they've won at the end of this.
Only the MIC and the grifters win.
Posted on 6/14/24 at 12:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
quote:
Armenia will participate in the conference on Ukraine in Switzerland, Secretary of the Security Council Armen Grigoryan will arrive there on June 15.
Holy cow. Armenia must be getting some good promises from NATO countries. Will they try to force Russia to leave their huge base at Gyumri? (It's interesting to read the Wikipedia page about the base, as it's now horribly outdated.)
Armenia senses that Russia is going to not be able to project power in the Caucuses, and that's bad for them as it stands... Armenia has long-running hostilities with Turkey and Azerbaijan, that Russia has protected them from... Georgia seems like it could get weird as it has its own Ukraine-like battles over Russian influence... for a country landlocked between the three of those countries, that's could be disaster. It seems that they want to position themselves away from Russia/Putin and as a peaceful little well-meaning Eastern European country that people should have some sympathy for...
Posted on 6/14/24 at 12:29 pm to TBoy
quote:
It’s a complicated play, but you may be correct.
Are you familiar with his post history?
He's never correct.
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