re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

And, as if on cue, here's Putin talking about a ceasefire and peace talks.

LINK

Of course the conditions he's proposing are preposterous:

- Ukraine gives up all the territory Russia has conquered, plus Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities that Ukraine holds and are currently uncontested.

- Ukraine agrees to never join NATO.

- All Western sanctions are removed.

Obviously, Putin knows that such a ridiculous proposal is a complete nonstarter. So, why does he bother to outline it? Why is he starting to talk about a ceasefire and peace? Instead of simply bragging about how Russia will continue to dominate and will soon complete the conquest of the Donbas?

I think that there are two reasons:

1) The big Ukrainian "peace conference" is due to begin tomorrow in Switzerland. LINK. Some 80+ nations are coming together to affirm Ukraine's territorial integrity and support complete Russian withdrawal. It's a major symbolic rededication of much of the world to the rules-based international order that says that the days of one nation conquering and annexing another are over.

Putin needed to put out a counterproposal of some sort, and this is what he came up with.

2) But it's also an acknowledgement to the Russian people that the maximalist goals outlined at the beginning of the conflict will never be achieved. Ukraine will never be "de-Nazified." Ukraine will never be "de-militarized."

Putin is going to try to very gradually prepare the Russian populace for the upcoming defeat. Doing that successfully without getting overthrown in a coup would be the greatest accomplishment of Putin's career.

So, it's time for him to start talking about peace. The conditions he outlined today will get very steadily walked back. Soon, he'll be offering to freeze the lines where they are. Eventually, we'll see some withdrawals as "goodwill gestures."

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 June 2024

The Russian MOD has increasingly centralised their command and control of pro-Russian irregular forces, highly likely to facilitate their use in offensive operations in Ukraine.

In February 2023, the Russian MOD established their Volunteer Corps, uniting over 20,000 volunteers, reservists, mercenaries and ex-convicts, who serve in numerous irregular units, under a single command and control framework. Since the formation of the Volunteer Corps, the Russian MOD has increasingly employed irregular forces in offensive operations, to which they are ill-suited. Russia's irregular formations are mainly light infantry units which lack integrated artillery or air support making them more brittle than Russian regular formations.

Consequently, during the last 9 months, Russian irregular units have likely sustained proportionally higher casualty rates than Russian regular units.

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this is demand to just START negotiations, meaning they more demands than this

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Its almost like the deal in 2022 was likely the best Ukraine was ever going to get.

I really, really hope you all/"the west" is right and they end up in a better position whenever there is some kind of peace/pause to this.

president of kleptocracy complains of theft...

Putin Says Freezing of Russian Assets in West Is ‘Theft’

Putin also warned the standoff between Moscow and the West was coming “unacceptably close to the point of no return” and boasted that Moscow “possesses the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons.”

He also blasted a Ukraine peace forum taking place in Switzerland this weekend as a “trick to distract everybody.”

Moscow, which does not recognize Ukraine’s right to exist, was not invited to the conference, which will be attended by the heads of state and senior officials from around 90 countries and international organizations.

The Kyiv Post

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Putin Says Freezing of Russian Assets in West Is ‘Theft’

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What you lunatics can never grapple with because you're emotionally unhinged is Putin can be an authoritarian tyrant and also be correct.

Which he is here.

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Why would Putin propose in negotiations something that his military has been unable to achieve in reality for two years?

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Why would you publicly negotiate (because that's partly what is happening here) for exactly or less than what you ultimately want?

This literally happens all the time in our own country. Politician asks for some crazy number to fund X thing, media of the opposite side slams them for being an idiot. Maybe they are an idiot, but that number doesn't really mean anything in terms of their actual goals.

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Imagine someone destroys my house and steals my car, and he drops his wallet in the process. If a neighbor picks up the wallet and gives it to me, is that theft?

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I don't really have an issue with it in this particular instance, but I do think its problematic to set the precedent that "there are situations where this is okay" because I don't trust governments to use this power without a strict legal basis for it in a consistent manner.

You have a lot of people, particularly in the younger generation, who believe its okay to try to get people fired, beat up, or even killed for their beliefs and opinions. When those people get power, because eventually at least some of them will, this could be wielded in a very problematic way against people who don't deserve it in situations that don't call for it.

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Imagine someone destroys my house and steals my car, and he drops his wallet in the process. If a neighbor picks up the wallet and gives it to me, is that theft?

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Also, a better comparison.

Imagine 3m dumps harmful chemicals in my backyard and harms my kids, so my neighbor kills my other neighbors kids because the other neighbor works for Dow.

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Well, it likely won't be a Russian defeat by Zelensky's own terms. But at least the Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict posters count it as a win.

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It's certainly true that I support Ukraine and am thus vulnerable to "motivated reasoning" in my thinking that Ukraine will prevail. For example, I was convinced that the big Ukrainian offensive last year would succeed (largely because the Pentagon was convinced).

But I don't know how I can escape the evidence right now that I outlined a week ago:

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Altogether, we can look at all the data and conclude that Russia only has another 6-9 months before critical shortages begin to emerge, and the current Russian offensive is pushing us towards the shorter end of that time frame.

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As I posted earlier this morning, we now have very solid data that Russia will run out of IFVs by mid-December.

The accelerating AD losses, especially in Crimea, will only happen faster once F-16s arrive, and those planes will hit a number of targets in Crimea. Russian control of Crimea is only going to get more and more tenuous every day.

The new sanctions that forced Russia to stop all trading in dollars and Euros will only accelerate inflation and the inevitable Russian financial collapse. I posted before that they maybe have enough reserves to last another year, but now I don't think that they will last that long.

In the meantime, on the Ukrainian side:

- US military aid has renewed their ability to fight

- They have stopped the Russian advance in northern Kharkiv

- Ukraine now has solid commitments of five Patriot systems, with strong possibilities for two more. They also have the French promise to train Ukrainian pilots on Mirage fighters and get those planes in the sky by the end of the year. There are also a number of other air defense systems promised, including another SAMP/T system, eight NASAMS, and more IRIS-T. By the end of the year, Ukraine will be able to protect itself from Russian missile attacks.

- The new conscription law has substantially fixed the Ukrainian personnel problem, at least once new recruits get trained.

- The relaxation of Western restrictions on hitting targets in Russia will stress Russian supply lines and result in the increased destruction of Russian military equipment.

- F-16s will enable Ukraine to much better target the Russian deep rear.

- US and European production of artillery shells has increased to the point that Ukrainian forces can always fire back. Production next year will approach Russian levels.

- The Swiss conference beginning tomorrow will formally commit most of the world to the restoration of Ukraine's 2014 borders. With the elevated sanctions, so many nations are now getting squeezed into choosing sides, and they aren't choosing Russia.

- The $50 billion that will soon be going to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets will guarantee Ukraine's financial security through 2025 and enable them to invest even more in the drone production that constantly hits Russian airbases, refineries, ships, etc.



Seriously, what's the theory for how Russia is going to win? When the Russian economy has collapsed and they don't have any armored vehicles left, when Russian air defense has collapsed to the point that Ukrainian drones rain down daily in a torrent of Russian destruction?

Tell me what I am missing in my analysis.

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What you lunatics can never grapple with because you're emotionally unhinged is Putin can be an authoritarian tyrant and also be correct.

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A nation declares war on another nation. Should the aggressor nation pay damages for invading another? If not what should be the consequences if it’s actions? Nothing? Let the outcome of the war determine things? Who pays to put the invaded nation back together?

If I were dictator of the world, I’d take Russian assets and use them to make Ukraine whole. I’d do it in a heart beat.