re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This is what the Russians are doing

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In attritional wars, military operations are shaped by a state’s ability to replace losses and generate new formations, not tactical and operational manoeuvres. The side that accepts the attritional nature of war and focuses on destroying enemy forces rather than gaining terrain is most likely to win.

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Military operations in an attritional conflict are very distinct from those in a war of manoeuvre. Instead of a decisive battle achieved through rapid manoeuvre, attritional war focuses on destroying enemy forces and their ability to regenerate combat power, while preserving one’s own. In this context, a successful strategy accepts that the war will last at least two years and be broken into two distinct phases. The first phase ranges from initiation of hostilities to the point where sufficient combat power has been mobilised to allow decisive action. It will see little positional shifting on the ground, focusing on favourable exchange of losses and building up combat power in the rear. The dominant form of combat is fires rather than manoeuvre, complemented by extensive fortifications and camouflage. The peacetime army starts the war and conducts holding actions, providing time to mobilise resources and train the new army.

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When the second phase begins, the offensive should be launched across a broad front, seeking to overwhelm the enemy at multiple points using shallow attacks. The intent is to remain inside the layered bubble of friendly protective systems, while stretching depleted enemy reserves until the front collapses. There is a cascading effect in which a crisis in one sector forces the defenders to shift reserves from a second sector, only to generate a crisis there in turn.

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LINK

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The attritional strategy, centred on defence, is counterintuitive to most Western military officers. Western military thought views the offensive as the only means of achieving the decisive strategic goal of forcing the enemy to come to the negotiating table on unfavourable terms. The strategic patience required to set the conditions for an offensive runs against their combat experience acquired in overseas counterinsurgency operations.

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According to the PT board, France has invaded Russia.

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Debris does fall to the ground the last time I checked. Not all of it is in the form of dust.

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Was it last summer or the summer before that when this thread had a lengthy discussion about the Hrim-2?

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Probably last year. There's a good chance that the program is making progress since Kamyshin took over as Minister of Strategic Industries.

This is an excerpt from the link below, from last year.

According to a recent press release from UkrOboronProm, by the decision of Yuriy Gusev, an inspection was conducted in March-April this year to determine the reasons for the failure to implement certain measures of the missile program.

On April 25 this year, the internal audit results were sent to the Ministry of Strategic Industries of Ukraine and the Counterintelligence Department of the Security Service of Ukraine for appropriate measures.

Ukraine makes changes to arms industry after missile program failure

shite knowing the Russians they probably sent the 5th grade boy and his entire class to the front for that.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

The Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these reserves are unlikely to be able to function as cohesive large-scale penetration or exploitation formations this year.

Russian offensive tactics will likely increasingly pressure Ukrainian defenses as long as delays in Western security assistance persist.

Russian forces conducted a larger series of missile strikes targeting Kyiv City on the night of March 20 to 21.

NATO Military Committee Chairperson Admiral Rob Bauer stated that neither Ukraine nor NATO prompted Russia to invade Ukraine and that Ukrainian forces’ adaptations and innovations have in part changed modern warfare.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on March 21 that Vice Admiral Konstantin Kabantsov became acting Commander of the Russian Northern Fleet.

Bloomberg reported on March 20 that an unspecified source close to the Kremlin stated that the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian incursions into Belgorod Oblast are forcing the Russian military to divert forces from the frontline to Belgorod Oblast, although ISW has not observed such claims.

US sanctions continue to influence the financial sector in post-Soviet countries, as two banks in Kazakhstan recently banned the use of Russia’s “Mir” national payment system to prevent secondary sanctions.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 21.

Russian officials continue to highlight the work of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) in supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Personnel shortages don't fit tNarrative. I was told they have barely lost anyone and had people lining up to fight. They didn't even need the draft!

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Ukraine's problem is that getting conscripted has been a one-way ticket to the front. Guys there have been fighting for two years now, and a fair system would train replacements for them and allow them to go home. That's one of the big challenges for the new Ukrainian conscription law: putting a limit on the required term of service.

The other challenge is that, now that Putin has been "re-elected," Russia is planning to significantly increase the size of its army, and Ukraine will need to respond.

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Russia advancing 10 km in weeks is really running.

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You keep harping on the lack of Russian gains over & over...they will speed up when the Ukrainian army is gone. Based on the dozens of videos posted this week with conscription officers dragging people out of cars/buildings/tractors...it's coming sooner than you would like to believe.

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Don't worry, more missiles coming tonight

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Broke watches and all that

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13 Russian Tu-95Ms strategic bombers are airborne. At least 30 Shahed drones reported over Ukraine currently.

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LINK

ETA

I'm waiting for one of these people who bitch everytime Ukraine says it had a 100% intercept rate to post a reply to the numerous times they don't claim it.