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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/16/24 at 2:52 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 3/16/24 at 2:52 pm to WeeWee
If each of the refineries are 100% shutdown after the recent attacks its 18% of refining throughput capacity, which doesn't equal actual gasoline production. Refineries outside the USA are not normally configured for max gasoline production. The one with the cat cracker hit had a pissant cat cracker for its crude unit(s) throughput capacity. Take a refinery in US that I have for sale is 30,000 BPD capacity with a 12,000 cat cracker. That should equate to a 135,000 BPD cat cracking instead of 18,000 BPD for the Russian one.
What Russia is mostly known for, and for decades, is its export of Mazut, which is the equivalent to our No.6 fuel oil. Its the residual used to make asphalt (tar not asphalt concrete for roads) and fueling power plants (the last ones which used similar fuel in the USA were in the New England and shutdown a decade ago, around 2 decades beyond normal lifespan). Some refineries on the Gulf Coast were importing this as coker feedstock before sanctions set in
What Russia is mostly known for, and for decades, is its export of Mazut, which is the equivalent to our No.6 fuel oil. Its the residual used to make asphalt (tar not asphalt concrete for roads) and fueling power plants (the last ones which used similar fuel in the USA were in the New England and shutdown a decade ago, around 2 decades beyond normal lifespan). Some refineries on the Gulf Coast were importing this as coker feedstock before sanctions set in
This post was edited on 3/16/24 at 2:59 pm
1
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:02 pm to CitizenK
quote:
WeeWee,
I have a list of Russian refineries and which downstream processes included. It may have say 100,000 BPD of crude unit which may be two or even 4 separate crude units. The names of the locations sometimes slightly different than reports of being targeted. Sort of any list of two refineries listed as being in Lake Charles. One is in Westlake and the other actually in Carlyss. So, a report on Twatter would say Carlyss and everyone not from the area would think, Where the F is that?
quote:LINK
These incidents have caused significant disruption, with facilities hit in the past few days accounting for 12 percent of Russia's oil-processing capacity, according to Bloomberg.
Russian business news outlet RBC reported that, because the strikes have forced refineries to suspend operation, there has been a rise in gasoline prices due to concerns about the balance of supply and demand.
Well as of 18 hours ago, operations at those refineries that account for 12% of Russia's oil processing capability were still suspended. Suspended operations = shutdown to me.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:06 pm to Hateradedrink
Russian elections are completely secure. They might not be be free or fair but they are secure.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:06 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Well as of 18 hours ago, operations at those refineries that account for 12% of Russia's oil processing capability were still suspended. Suspended operations = shutdown to me.
Suspended can mean a lot of things, a single process unit would constitute this. How often do journalists get medicine wrong? They sure as hell get refining and pipelines wrong consistently
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:09 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Well as of 18 hours ago, operations at those refineries that account for 12% of Russia's oil processing capability were still suspended. Suspended operations = shutdown to me.
Suspended can mean a lot of things, a single process unit would constitute this. How often do journalists get medicine wrong? They sure as hell get refining and pipelines wrong consistently
That is a lot of words to avoid saying that you were wrong.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:09 pm to CitizenK
quote:Did FPL Port Manatee stop buying 6 oil? If so, it's a shame. The residual market always attracted the ethically challenged and they left some great stories.
(the last ones which used similar fuel in the USA were in the New England and shutdown a decade ago
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:13 pm to WeeWee
Russia is already struggling with inflation. I'm wondering how much energy disruption it would take to kick off a cycle of hyperinflation. That may be Ukraine's ultimate game. Hyperinflation is the single most destabilizing thing you can do to a country's economy. It causes governments to fall and starts revolutions.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:24 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
That may be Ukraine's ultimate game. Hyperinflation is the single most destabilizing thing you can do to a country's economy. It causes governments to fall and starts revolutions.
This just may be the greatest moral victory of all time! Most wars cause inflation.
"We got our asses kicked in the trenches; but boy did we super inflate their economy!"
You're a fricking moron, Jim. Did your father ever tell you that?
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:28 pm to lsuconnman
quote:
What point are you trying to make?
NATO hasn’t attacked Russia; nor has Russia attacked NATO proving that NATO has brought more stability to Europe than Europe previously had.
quote:
How many times has a NATO country attacked a non NATO one?
Since they haven’t fought Russia, what does it matter?[
quote] Is the moral of the story that it’s hazardous for governments outside the alliance that aren’t interested in regime change?[/quote]
The moral of the story is that NATO has helped stabilize Europe.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:45 pm to doubleb
Russia would never dream of attacking a NATO country. They know they don’t want that fire. If they attacked NATO it would be with nukes because they know they can’t win an actual war with the west.
This post was edited on 3/16/24 at 3:52 pm
Posted on 3/16/24 at 3:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It is surprising that NATO offered.
Why?
Because it was unnecessary.
It was counter to US assurances associated with German reunification.
Rememeber, every time you see this old caveat, the person saying it is exposing themselves as utterly full of shite.
No assurance existed; no guarantee, no treaty, no position paper, no memorandum of understanding ever existed.
One well placed individual in the state department apparatus advocated for such a position, but it was not only rejected within the American foreign policy community, but was so blatantly understood not to be the case that we invited the Russians to be *participant* in the Partnership for Peace process, and educated them in what would be necessary if they too, wished to examine whether or not entering NATO would be an option they desired to pursue.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:04 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
We got our asses kicked in the trenches; but boy did we super inflate their economy!"
Speaking of which....when is that Nat Gas price in Europe gonna go ballistic like you predicted?
Because, you know, it's currently about half of what it was in the winter of 21/22 before Putin kicked this thing off. And it's down about 90% from its peak.
Whatever happened to Muh Rushin Gasss....
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:08 pm to WeeWee
If UKR was going after gasoline, they would hit the naphtha reformers.
Not wrong that close to 100% of all journalists are clueless hacks. You just don't know anything about refining except gasoline makes your car go, which is normal for 99% of people including those who drill and produce oil.
Not wrong that close to 100% of all journalists are clueless hacks. You just don't know anything about refining except gasoline makes your car go, which is normal for 99% of people including those who drill and produce oil.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:08 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:09 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
Russia would never dream of attacking a NATO country. They know they don’t want that fire. If they attacked NATO it would be with nukes because they know they can’t win an actual war with the west.
This is true. It's also why i want to beat my head against a concrete wall when you chicken hawks keep comparing Putin to Hitler.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:12 pm to SirWinston
frick Tucker the fricker.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:16 pm to CitizenK
quote:
You just don't know anything about refining
Serious question. In your opinion what % of refinery shutdown in the US would result in panic buying and hoarding?
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:21 pm to SirWinston
quote:
literally just posted a prayer for the Russian lads trapped in that sub
While you're praying, send one out for the thousands of Ukrainian children kidnapped and sent to live in Russia to politically connected families struggling with fertility problems.
It's cheaper than IVF, and quite effective. According to Putin these kids all needed "medical attention" which required them to be separated from their true parents.
I'm sure you're following that story as closely as the guys in the submarine?
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:36 pm to cypher
Covid lockdowns caused refineries to limp along at well below profitable throughput rates. Some shutdown completely then reopened. Low/no profit margin refineries stayed shut after covid. There wasn't hoarding, instead it was filling anything that could be filled just to keep refineries running at all. They were most definitely selling diesel for trucking but no jet fuel to speak of.
Posted on 3/16/24 at 4:40 pm to cypher
On another note, the US has ALWAYS exported refined products, especially from TX and LA. Those markets went to crap too, and some were replaced by newly built local refineries like Columbia, and Nigeria. Some small refineries were built in the Caribbean configured to process only very light crudes like from Eagle Ford shale play. So they get some crude and not refined products now.
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