re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

This is so concerning. Everyone knows that electronic voting systems can be hacked! What if the vote totals are manipulated? Isn't anyone concerned about the integrity of the voting system? Isn't Putin worried about what would happen if people lost faith in the legitimacy of Russian elections?

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This is so concerning. Everyone knows that electronic voting systems can be hacked! What if the vote totals are manipulated? Isn't anyone concerned about the integrity of the voting system? Isn't Putin worried about what would happen if people lost faith in the legitimacy of Russian elections?

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nice

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Russia Lost 12% of Its Oil Refinery Capacity in a Day: What’s the Impact?

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Is this actually the case? This seems more like shooting from the hip without any facts.

If a refinery loses a small cat cracker, like recently, that particular refinery would have lost MAYBE 10% of its gasoline production. Most Russian refineries don't have alkyation units to utilizes the isobutane and/or isopentane produced as byproducts of the process to then further make alkylates used to increase the octane in gasoline. It is doubtful that any have a butamer unit to convert nButane into isoButane to convert in the butamer process.

Then most refineries, especially in Russia have increased throughput incrementally over the years thus have more than one crude unit. The one with the cat cracker explosion had 3 crude units so 2 were up and running a day later.

Additionally, refinery throughput must have already been at far less than nameplate capacity due exports of diesel were already down. You don't decrease diesel output without impact to gasoline production unless you are just spilling the gasoline onto the ground like pre automobile refineries spilled it without any markets for it. Then there is kerosene, aka jet fuel, which can be blended into the diesel products but not so much vice versa.

What many Russian refineries have are isomeration units which take low octane rating condensation, aka natural gasoline, to produce isomerate which is blended with gasoline.

Of significance is the high percentage of vehicles in Europe, Russia and Central Asia which require what we call here, premium gasoline. Naphtha reformers are used to produce 97 octane gasoline.

All of this being said, it appears that at least 5% of gasoline production may have been lost over the last week, and it may have already been reduced due lower than average refinery throughput. Here in the US if a refinery is operating at say 70% capacity, it is losing its arse bigtime so is shutdown completely.

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Is this actually the case?

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The refineries that were hit account for 10-12% of Russia’s refinery output. All of those facilities are currently offline for damage control, assessment, and repairs. So yea it’s accurate for now. How long it stays accurate is TBD.

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Not true, the one with the cat cracker is back at 2/3 throughput. The units hit are possibly being partially repaired.

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Source?

This is why Ukraine needs to do a mass simultaneous strike at every refinery that their drones can reach. I don’t know how many of these drones they can build a month, I assume it’s the beaver model drone that is being used but I would try to gather a couple hundred of them and send them all at once. This could make Russia pull air defense systems from the front or Crimea to protect these refineries just as the F-16s start coming in.

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I don’t know how many of these drones they can build a month, I assume it’s the beaver model drone that is being used

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My take is that neither the number or model is static. Both are changing rapidly.

Two years ago when the invasion started Ukraine did not have this capability.

One year ago we saw a few ineffectual long range strikes.

This year they are demonstrating much improved production and effectiveness.

My "by this time next year" prediction, based on extrapolation of demonstrated progress over the past 2 years. Increased production. New models with increases in range, payload, and targeting capabilities.

Russian fashion week may as well be Milk Cow Fashion Week, most fashion models have fled Russia.

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How many times has a NATO country attacked a non NATO one?

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The fact you think this is remotely a “point” tells me you’re a moron