re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

no bro the gloves are about to come off

Russians on golf carts made me think of this.

LINK

That's a mix of combat injuries and guys claiming disability to avoid military service.

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"Around 50 religious ministers, Protestant pastors, Orthodox priests, Catholic priests have been imprisoned or killed,"

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SirWinston would you like to explain this Christian behavior?

Russia Lost 12% of Its Oil Refinery Capacity in a Day: What’s the Impact?

Tom O’Donnell, PhD, an expert on energy and geopolitics, sat down with Kyiv Post to explain what Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy sector will mean for the larger Russian energy sector.

It sounds like a huge number. But how much do you think losing 12 percent of production, in a day, will affect Russia?

First off, although these refineries hit by Ukrainian drones yesterday represent about 12 percent of Russian production, experience shows that they might not each be totally impaired from production. Nevertheless, there are two particularly significant implications for Russia.

First, whatever percentage of Russian refined oil products this impairs, the damage will both deprive the war economy of needed export revenues and/or of much-needed fuels to keep the domestic war economy running.

Already, Russia had announced it will ban the export of gasoline from March 1 in order to tame prices for consumers in the runup to the presidential elections mid-month. In 2023 about 17 percent of Russian gasoline was exported.

What is the origin of the current price pressure?

The present price pressure is both a result of the demands of the war economy as well as previously successful Ukrainian hits on other refineries that began in January.

This gets to my second point – the successful refinery strikes of yesterday, involving a reported launch of 58 drones, as well as recent hits on a Russian domestic gas transmission pipeline, all demonstrate that the January successes were not one-off special operations, but rather the beginning of what will be a sustained Ukraine armed forces campaign capable of, over time, significantly disrupting Russia’s all-important oil and gas import revenues and internal refined-product supplies.

more on strategic implications...

The Kyiv Post

Bloomberg reports suggest that the raids in March have affected approximately 12% of the country's refining capacity.

The Kyiv Post

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Putin’s dilemma: Continue the invasion, illegally occupy Ukraine territory, and watch his refineries burn or withdraw completely and salvage the oil and gas industry.Putin’s dilemma: Continue the invasion, or withdraw, or massively expand his own remote attacks on vulnerable Ukrainian infrastructure.

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Putin tried that already and Ukraine rebuilt its infrastructure and improved its air defenses. Ukraine’s critical infrastructure is in better condition now and better protected than it was before the invasion.

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It led to Putin's ascendance.

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Bullshite. Putin came to power by using his KGB contacts to get in with the people in power in St Petersburg, his investigation into corruption for the Kremlin renovations that kept Yeltsin and his family and allies from being charged with corruption charges. NATO expansion didn’t become an issue for Putin until 2005-2006 which was years after he was in power.

I remember how, for so many months, we had posters in here who insisted that Putin really just wanted to protect the rights of Russian-speaking residents of the Donbas.

Today, we get the former Prime Minister and current Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of Russia insisting that Latvia is not a country (it is, instead, part of Russia).




Every last bit of Biden's concern about "escalation" has only encouraged Putin to do exactly that. We demonstrated weakness, and Russia seized on that.


EDIT: Also note that "Nazi" just means any opponent of Russia, as many of us have said since Russia talked about "denazification" from the very beginning. According to Russia, I and every Russia critic in here would be nazis by definition.

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no bro the gloves are about to come off


I think you're right. Russia is gonna start trying in this war any minute now

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What can Russia do that it has not done already other than use weapons of mass destruction? I do not believe that Putin is reckless or stupid enough to do that. Russia has already mobilized its economy for war. Sure it can increase its forces and try to overwhelm Ukrainian positions with lots of human wave attacks. However, it does not have the capacity to sustain that for very long. Russia has been firing an estimated average of 10,000 shells per day over the past few months. That is approximately 300,000 shells per month if my math is correct. However, it is producing an estimated 250,000 shells per month. That means Russia is consuming 50,000 shells per month more than it is making. That is a 600,000 shell per year deficit at its current rate of consumption. Iran and North Korea sent shells to Russia last year but how long can they continue to do that given Israeli tensions are at an all time high and North Korea and South Korea are not exactly on speaking terms at the moment. Russia is producing 100 - 120 MBTs per month but almost 90% of those are old T72s, T62s, and T55s pulled out of storage and repaired. Most are not even modernized. Those old tanks are not only vulnerable to Ukrainian tanks, mines, drones, ATGMs, but also recoiless rifles and even old RPGs. Plus until either side figures out how to effectively protect tanks from FPD drones the role of tanks of the battlefield is somewhat diminished. Russia could intensify its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine but with Ukraine's improved air defenses it takes > 100 missiles and drones per attack to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defenses and have some get through. It is only producing about 100 missiles per month and 300 drones per month. So unless Russia has a big stockpile or production capacity many times greater than western estimates (which usually overestimate Russia's abilities FWIW) I don't see a major change in the war. Russia might capture a few villages and kms of empty fields and kill more Ukrainian civilians but I don't see a major shift in the war in the near term. The only thing that could change the war in the near term significantly in Russia's favor is if they stopped focussing on civilian targets and concentrated all their missile and drone attacks on the 11 rail bridges across the Dnieper which are vital to Ukraine's ability to make war in the east. However, those bridges are heavily protected and Russia has not targeted them in > 2 years of war so I do not predict that happening.