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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:41 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:41 pm to WeeWee
I’ve always thought the JAS-39 Gripen is the logical choice to sign a contract with. The F-35 really took a lot of orders away from the Gripen so they would be very open to a contract for a good number of fighters that a country the size of Ukraine would need. The French are already extremely backlogged with orders for the Rafale and they are at least 5 years behind on their promised delivery dates and number of planes in each batch each year. The Gripen is simple, yet still high tech and can fire any NATO ordnance while being able to operate from rough fields or even highways or grass fields. It’s supersonic but has just one engine that is very powerful and very easy to swap out. I believe it has a .975 thrust to weight ratio. The operating costs are very low which will help a country that will already be trying to get its economy back on its feet so anywhere you can save a buck will help. They could sign a 10 year contract for 60 Gripens at a delivery rate of 6 aircraft per year. This would give Ukraine 5 fighter squadrons of Gripens making it the 2nd largest user of the fighter in the world besides Sweden itself.
2
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:43 pm to LSUPilot07
I’d be shocked if Ukraine doesn’t end up a gripen country.
I’m ignorant as to its interoperability with nato radar but that’s the only variable I’d think of that could kibosh it
I’m ignorant as to its interoperability with nato radar but that’s the only variable I’d think of that could kibosh it
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:47 pm to Hateradedrink
That’s not an issue. The Gripen is 100% compliant to NATO standards. Sweden saw this coming years down the line, there’s no way they would produce an aircraft that they hoped to sell NATO countries if it wasn’t capable of using NATO munitions or interacting with other platforms in its’s class. But beyond that it’s just a fantastic aircraft. It’s way smaller than Russia’s Su-35 and Su-30 but they would still be a formidable adversary. SAAB is a quality company.
This post was edited on 3/12/24 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 3/12/24 at 9:56 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
I’ve always thought the JAS-39 Gripen is the logical choice to sign a contract with. The F-35 really took a lot of orders away from the Gripen so they would be very open to a contract for a good number of fighters that a country the size of Ukraine would need. The French are already extremely backlogged with orders for the Rafale and they are at least 5 years behind on their promised delivery dates and number of planes in each batch each year. The Gripen is simple, yet still high tech and can fire any NATO ordnance while being able to operate from rough fields or even highways or grass fields. It’s supersonic but has just one engine that is very powerful and very easy to swap out. I believe it has a .975 thrust to weight ratio. The operating costs are very low which will help a country that will already be trying to get its economy back on its feet so anywhere you can save a buck will help. They could sign a 10 year contract for 60 Gripens at a delivery rate of 6 aircraft per year. This would give Ukraine 5 fighter squadrons of Gripens making it the 2nd largest user of the fighter in the world besides Sweden itself.
It would make sense for them. Saab could probably even sell Ukraine some AWACS to go with it. Ukraine’s 80 or so Soviet era fighters ain’t gonna last forever. However, there are surplus F16s that can be had faster so that is probably the route Ukraine will end up taking.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:03 pm to WeeWee
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion conducted a limited cross-border incursion into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the morning of March 12.
The New York Times (NYT) reported that Russian and Ukrainian forces have differential advantages and disadvantages in their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin “probably believes” that Russian forces have blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory and that US and Western support to Ukraine is “finite.”
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced an emergency military aid package valued at $300 million for Ukraine on March 12.
Lithuanian and French authorities are expected to meet in Paris in the coming days to discuss accelerating support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues to assert its right, contrary to international law, to enforce Russian federal law on officials of NATO members and former Soviet states for actions taken within the territory of their own countries where Russian courts have no jurisdiction, effectively denying the sovereignty of those states.
The Kremlin recently implemented a series of personnel changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Rosgvardia, and the Russian military command.
Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia would leave the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if the CSTO fails to meet certain Armenian expectations, as Armenia continues to distance itself from Russian security relations.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 12.
The Kremlin is reportedly considering raising taxes, likely as part of efforts to increase federal budget revenues to fund its war in Ukraine.
Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko continues to pursue industrial projects in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:03 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
I’m ignorant as to its interoperability with nato radar but that’s the only variable I’d think of that could kibosh it
Well seeing how the Czech Republic and Hungary operate the Gripen and its NATO compatible I don’t see a problem.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:10 pm to Lima Whiskey
Ukrainian civilians are victims of an unprovoked invasion, civilians in Gaza are at least partially responsible for the actions of the terrorist organization they support, enable and let hide amongst them if not wholly responsible. False equivalency of the highest order
This post was edited on 3/12/24 at 10:21 pm
Posted on 3/12/24 at 10:10 pm to WeeWee
Yes the F-16 is the easy route and they will still have 4-5 squadrons of them but eventually the airframe just times out and isn’t for for operation anymore. Ukraine’s soviet Mig-29s and Su-27s probably passed that date 10 years ago but they have to still keep them in the sky by cannibalizing other airframes to use as spare parts. The F-16s they are getting are some of the oldest still flying in active service but they at least had their MLU (mid life update). I just think it makes too much sense not to make it happen, especially with talks between Ukraine and Sweden about Ukraine producing CV90 IFVs in the future. That could be a nice new partnership that really strengthen the west.
Posted on 3/12/24 at 11:03 pm to Hateradedrink
That's a fair point, mate
Posted on 3/13/24 at 12:24 am to SirWinston
quote:
JUST IN: Democrats have started to sign a discharge petition to try to force a floor vote on the bipartisan foreign aid bill that would provide aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. It will need 218 to succeed. Call your representatives now and urge them to sign it.
quote:
Democrats have 213 representatives in the House so we need only 5 GOP members. Seriously, call your representatives immediately. This bill would likely pass with more than 2/3 of the total House. Let's create a burning bush that that speaks the truth to @SpeakerJohnson
March 12th, 2024 Motion to Discharge a Committee from the Consideration of a Resolution
LINK
This post was edited on 3/13/24 at 12:25 am
Posted on 3/13/24 at 4:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Democrats have 213 representatives in the House so we need only 5 GOP members.
The "Squad" won't sign, so it will need about 10 GOP signatures.
I think that Republican members who support Ukraine will give the Speaker at least another week to negotiate a deal. At this point, though, I am increasingly skeptical that a deal can be constructed that would get the support of a majority of the conference and also get the Democratic votes to pass.
In the end, I think that the question is going to come down to whether there are 10 GOP members willing to buck the Speaker and vote for the petition.
Posted on 3/13/24 at 5:04 am to GOP_Tiger
Another day, another drone attack on a Russian oil refinery. This one is in Ryazan, not to far from Moscow.
A drone hit the cracking tower and set it on fire, which I imagine will put that refinery out of commission for a while.
A drone hit the cracking tower and set it on fire, which I imagine will put that refinery out of commission for a while.
Posted on 3/13/24 at 5:11 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In the end, I think that the question is going to come down to whether there are 10 GOP members willing to buck the Speaker and vote for the petition.
Public opinion is shifting...those 10 GOP members may well be bucking their own constituents.
Will they still do it? Probably.
Posted on 3/13/24 at 5:39 am to DMAN1968
Besides the hardcore Ukraine supporters, there are still a number of GOP reps in competitive districts, and public opinion overall is still very much in favor of aid. Members want to win in November.
Posted on 3/13/24 at 5:59 am to GOP_Tiger
Ukraine's Security Service's drones attack three oil refineries in Russia at once – video
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Wednesday, 13 March 2024, 10:36
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) attacked three oil refineries in Russia with drones on the night of 12-13 March, namely those in Ryazan and Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and Kirishi in Leningrad Oblast.
Source: An interlocutor of Ukrainska Pravda in the SSU
Details: As the source reported, these attacks are a continuation of a series of special operations against Russian refineries that the Security Service had previously launched.
Quote: "We are systematically implementing a well-calculated strategy to reduce Russia's economic potential. Our task is to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel that the aggressor directs directly to the war effort and the killing of Ukrainian citizens."
Update: Sources of Ukrainska Pravda say that the Security Service of Ukraine, together with other representatives of the Armed Forces, attacked the Russian Aerospace Forces base in Buturlinovka and a military airfield in Voronezh using drones.
Background: The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that dozens of Ukrainian drones attacked Russia on the night of 12-13 March, with 65 UAVs supposedly destroyed. However, Russian Telegram channels report numerous drone strikes.
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Wednesday, 13 March 2024, 10:36
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) attacked three oil refineries in Russia with drones on the night of 12-13 March, namely those in Ryazan and Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and Kirishi in Leningrad Oblast.
Source: An interlocutor of Ukrainska Pravda in the SSU
Details: As the source reported, these attacks are a continuation of a series of special operations against Russian refineries that the Security Service had previously launched.
Quote: "We are systematically implementing a well-calculated strategy to reduce Russia's economic potential. Our task is to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel that the aggressor directs directly to the war effort and the killing of Ukrainian citizens."
Update: Sources of Ukrainska Pravda say that the Security Service of Ukraine, together with other representatives of the Armed Forces, attacked the Russian Aerospace Forces base in Buturlinovka and a military airfield in Voronezh using drones.
Background: The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that dozens of Ukrainian drones attacked Russia on the night of 12-13 March, with 65 UAVs supposedly destroyed. However, Russian Telegram channels report numerous drone strikes.
This post was edited on 3/13/24 at 6:21 am
Posted on 3/13/24 at 6:04 am to GOP_Tiger
If you ask people if they support sending aid to Ukraine the vast majority will say yes. If you ask people if they are in favor of sending another $60 billion in aid to Ukraine it's going to be 50/50 at best. I think it will get passed eventually.
Posted on 3/13/24 at 6:04 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 March 2024
According to local officials, voting in the 15-17 March 2024 Russian presidential elections has started early across the temporarily Russian controlled territories of Ukraine.
Efforts by Russian officials to get the population to vote are intensifying. In Luhansk, 2,600 officials have been drafted in to visit homes and persuade residents to vote. Heads of educational and other government establishments have been told to ensure their subordinates turn out to vote. With no independent election observers, and voter lists in at least one town absent, the potential for falsification of results is increased.
With significant population displacement and migration from these areas due to the on-going conflict, it is likely that only approximately a third of the pre-war population remains.
Whilst Russia has no legitimate basis to hold elections on the territory of Ukraine, the credibility of the elections is undermined further by a lack of proper representation, poor security, and coercive measures to pressure the population to vote. It is highly likely the occupation authorities in these territories will claim a high turnout with overwhelming support for Putin irrespective of what actually happens, to give the impression that a democratic choice has been made.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 March 2024
According to local officials, voting in the 15-17 March 2024 Russian presidential elections has started early across the temporarily Russian controlled territories of Ukraine.
Efforts by Russian officials to get the population to vote are intensifying. In Luhansk, 2,600 officials have been drafted in to visit homes and persuade residents to vote. Heads of educational and other government establishments have been told to ensure their subordinates turn out to vote. With no independent election observers, and voter lists in at least one town absent, the potential for falsification of results is increased.
With significant population displacement and migration from these areas due to the on-going conflict, it is likely that only approximately a third of the pre-war population remains.
Whilst Russia has no legitimate basis to hold elections on the territory of Ukraine, the credibility of the elections is undermined further by a lack of proper representation, poor security, and coercive measures to pressure the population to vote. It is highly likely the occupation authorities in these territories will claim a high turnout with overwhelming support for Putin irrespective of what actually happens, to give the impression that a democratic choice has been made.
This post was edited on 3/13/24 at 6:05 am
Posted on 3/13/24 at 6:19 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
A drone hit the cracking tower and set it on fire, which I imagine will put that refinery out of commission for a while.
The description is not sparkling maybe lost in translation.
IF the cat cracker that doesn't necessarily stop a refinery. The crude unit(s) still fractionate, while the cat cracker maximizes yield by cracking what isn't easily split into lighter fractions of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. For safety reasons it should shutdown the entire refinery temporarily.
Think Shell Norco of the late 80's when the main fractionator tower (aka column) blew up, fell over, and set fire to the rest of the cat cracker unit. Safety shutdown systems shutdown the rest of the refinery in proper sequence automatically. Much of the rest of the refinery restarted after damage assessment.
This post was edited on 3/13/24 at 6:21 am
Posted on 3/13/24 at 6:57 am to CitizenK
So Ukraine now dominates the Black Sea with their drone attacks, they have taken out all the oil refining capacity of Russia, the freedom ghosts of Russia have now invaded Russia and are on their way to Moscow....
Can someone tell me again why we are pissing money away while our own border is invaded? And yes it is a zero sum game, every penny we spend there is money that could have been spent in the US, on Americans, for Americans.
You dont seriously believe all this nonsense, Russia is now advancing over half a mile a day and its increasing at an increasing rate.
It is what it is. And bullshite the American public wants it. You tell them they will be taxed for it and they would overwhelmingly say no. Then you explain they already are its called inflation because we are printing money to fund this nonsense.
Can someone tell me again why we are pissing money away while our own border is invaded? And yes it is a zero sum game, every penny we spend there is money that could have been spent in the US, on Americans, for Americans.
You dont seriously believe all this nonsense, Russia is now advancing over half a mile a day and its increasing at an increasing rate.
It is what it is. And bullshite the American public wants it. You tell them they will be taxed for it and they would overwhelmingly say no. Then you explain they already are its called inflation because we are printing money to fund this nonsense.
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