re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Yea. We did earlier but once Russia shot its 12th F35 down, per the Russian MOD and Russian media, we would never put our planes in danger like that

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Not in Russian air space.

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They circled Tehran with Russia's latest air defense installed there. Never were detected.

But I seriously doubt they over Ukraine or Russia, maybe a few flights in international airspace over the Black Sea.

I never said Russian airspace. I meant the most at all they would do would be fly Ukrainian airspace within a distance of the lines in the east or south. I really doubt even that. Ukraine needs to go full on defense and start digging in tight as a tick with layered defensive lines covered by minefields in front to help blunt Russian attacks. Ukraine is starting to get artillery shells trickling in so they can fire back but I would pull all the western tanks and IFVs back and have all the soviet tanks up front as fire support. Losing them is nothing compared to an Abrams or Leopard. You don’t have the materials to attack but you can still actively defend. You know the Russians go to tactic is the pincer move on whatever their target is so make sure your flanks are well dug in and supplied. Like it or not the next 12-18 months will be judged by the world on how little territory they surrender. It’s time for Ukraine to put their boot in the ground and hold the line for a while.

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WeeWee

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So I've been meaning to ask you:

I don't know what the solution is to the Russian minefields. I understand that the "best and brightest" have been grinding on this problem for over a year. And maybe there's a crazy cool technology solution out there that we'll see in the next year or two. Which would be amazing.

Or maybe the solution exists but we're not willing to "burn it" on this conflict. Maybe we're keeping that ace in the hole for another day.

But the obvious answer when facing a minefield is: "go around it."

In this case, going around it means kicking off an offensive in Kharkiv that takes Belgorod and then loops back into the Russian rear.

With western MBTs and F16s this is the obvious play.

Other than the strategic politics of invading Russia proper, is there any tactical reason this won't work?

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So I've been meaning to ask you: is

I don't know what the solution is to the Russian minefields. I understand that the "best and brightest" have been grinding on this problem for over a year. And maybe there's a crazy cool technology solution out there that we'll see in the next year or two. Which would be amazing.

Or maybe the solution exists but we're not willing to "burn it" on this conflict. Maybe we're keeping that ace in the hole for another day.

But the obvious answer when facing a minefield is: "go around it."

In this case, going around it means kicking off an offensive in Kharkiv that takes Belgorod and then loops back into the Russian rear.

With western MBTs and F16s this is the obvious play.

Other than the strategic politics of invading Russia proper, is there any tactical reason this won't work?

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Russia has fortified and mined the area between the Ukrainian border and Belgorod. It is less fortified and mined than their defenses down south. Invading Russia to get behind their frontlines is the obvious play but it's politically too risky. Besides the risk of Russia sending nukes toward Ukraine there is the risk that the apathetic Russians will rally behind the flag or Belarus or some of the other CTSO members might come to Russia's aid.

The same objective of getting around the Russian flank can be accomplished by staying in Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.

Step-1: Ukraine needs to dig in and sit on the defensive and build their military for this year.

Step-2: Degrade Russian air defense and fighters.

Step-3: Take out the Kerch Straits Bridge and the road, rail bridges, and port facilities in between Mariupol and Crimea

Step-4: After the GLC between Russia and Crimea have been cut for a while launch a feint down south. Once Russia moves forces to reinforce the south. Use HIMARs, ATACAMs, cruise missile, drones, etc to disrupt the Russian supply lines into eastern Ukraine. There is a total of about 12 choke points on the road and rail network which if taken out would hamper Russia ability to supply the Donbas from Belgorod in the north, Millerovo and Kamensk-Shakhtinsky in the east, Rostov-on-Don in the south, as well as cut the main GLC that Russia uses to shift troops north and south.

Step-5: Further distract Russia by stoking the fires of political unrest next summer during the Belarusian elections next summer.

Step-6: As soon as the GLC are cut, clear a path and bulldoze a connection east and then south from the P07 highway north of the frontlines near Svatove to the T1307. This will allow an all out assault to bypass the Russian strongpoints of Svatove and Starobil's'k which would allow a push east along the T1307 starting at Traneve => Bilokurakyne => Novoposk => Markivka. BTW from what I can find on open source intel, once Ukraine gets past or around the frontline defenses which are only one line thick north and east of Svatove there are little to no prepared Russian defenses along the T1307 highway since that area is in between Russia and the its forces on the frontlines and it uses it as a supply route. Once in Markivka the UAF splits its. One part goes off road and continues east and north to reach the Russian border and protect their own flank. The rest of the forces turns south along the T1314. The UAF goes along the T1314 Markivka => Bilovodsk. Once in Bilovodsk UAF will be around the Russian defenses and able to cut off Luhansk city from Belgorod and attack Luhansk and the rest of the Donbas from the rear which is completely unprotected. I call it Donbas In the arse Plan (DIPA).

Step-7: Blockade the Zap oblast and crimea from the air.

Step-8: Negotiate peace from a position of strength.

Obviously the DIAP will require more than 17 ATACAMs and few dozen western cruise missiles. However, if the west actually gives Ukraine most of what it’s asking for the Ukrainians will be able to get past the Russian defense Svatove then the plan will work.

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If we were stupid enough to fly planes into Russian air spaceWe aren't. As you said, the Singapore stuff is absurd.

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I did say that but I have learned to never underestimate the Pentagon’s stupidity.

The last 6 months, I look into the sputnik news war progress report daily. It's about as biased as KJPierre, but in the last 8 weeks they have shown a very westward progress of the battle front. Ukraine is buckling

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I was under the impression that most of the Abrams crews were picked from Ukrainian T-80 crews because they had turbine engines like the M1A1.

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No according to my former roommate, some of the T80 repair crews and maintenance workers were going to be sent to train in the M1A1, but Ukraine always was planning on sending rookies to operate the M1A1s.

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They should never be sitting still. The Abrams shoots accurately on the move anyway so that’s just bad training and execution.

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Agreed but what do you expect from a rushed training program? Ukraine needs to get its western MBTs but especially the M1A1s off the line and get its crews in the simulators.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukraine destroyed the Project 22160 Sergei Kotov large patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) off the coast of the Kerch Strait on the night of March 4-5.

Russian milbloggers responded to the sinking of the Sergei Kotov by decrying the Russian military command’s lack of response to the incident and mounting a wider critique against the bureaucratic inertia of the Russian military apparatus.

Russian aircraft appear to be continuing to conduct a relatively high volume of glide bomb strikes in Ukraine despite Ukrainian officials’ reports that Ukrainian forces have downed several bomber aircraft in recent weeks.

Russia and China are deepening their strategic space cooperation, including cooperation on satellite surveillance and space exploration.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for two senior Russian commanders for their responsibility in perpetrating Russian war crimes – the first time the ICC has charged Russian military commanders.

Russian forces are reportedly operating a “black market” to sell Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), including to Russian paramilitary groups that may be conducting their own POW exchanges with Ukraine.

The director of the Moldovan Intelligence and Security Service, Alexandru Musteata, stated on March 5 that the Kremlin has begun to conduct multi-year hybrid operations aimed at destabilizing Moldova and preventing its accession to the EU.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 5.

Russian authorities are reportedly disbanding elements of the former Wagner Group that were supposed to join Rosgvardia or are currently in Belarus.

Russian law enforcement is likely intensifying crackdowns against Crimean Tatars in occupied Crimea.

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