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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/29/24 at 9:57 pm to Obtuse1
Posted on 2/29/24 at 9:57 pm to Obtuse1
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian officials are reportedly concerned about the possibility of significant Russian territorial gains in Summer 2024 in the event of continued delays in Western security assistance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin used his February 29 address to the Federal Assembly to attempt to convince the Russian public that his next term as president will be defined by Russian military success in Ukraine but not at the expense of stagnating or decreased social and economic welfare.
Putin used tired rhetoric about negotiations and nuclear saber rattling during his Federal Assembly speech, likely to seize on Western attention to the speech to promote ongoing Kremlin information operations.
Putin emphasized the Kremlin’s domestic focus on 2024 as the “Year of the Family” to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis during his Federal Assembly address.
Putin did not respond to the February 28 request from the Congress of Deputies from pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria, but this lack of response still affords the Kremlin several possible courses of action (COA) at a later time.
Ukrainian forces downed three more Su-34 fighter aircraft in eastern Ukraine on February 28 and 29.
The Kremlin continues to assert its self-arrogated right to enforce Russian federal law on citizens of NATO member and former Soviet states over actions taken within the territory of their own countries.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a threat to Armenian security as Russian officials refused to acknowledge Armenia’s reduced participation in the CSTO.
The Kremlin has reportedly established high-level positions in all federal bodies to promote patriotism and history within each body, likely aimed at strengthening informational and ideological control over federal employees.
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the frontline on February 29.
Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec Head Sergei Chemezov stated on February 29 that Rostec plans to produce A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on an unspecified schedule because Russian forces require more A-50 aircraft.
Occupation officials continue to support Kremlin efforts to gain further control over religious groups in occupied Ukraine.
0
Posted on 2/29/24 at 10:22 pm to CitizenK
quote:
French expeditionary forces even in support is something that should scare Putin.
No it should scare the French, that is a direct act of war, and Russia has made that crystal clear.
Macrons got some awfully big balls when he has the US tied to NATO. Its the reason we should have gotten out decades ago. Now every piss arse country in NATO that wants to start something they cant finish can drag our arse into it.
When you tally up all the money 113 billion so far from US, plus UN, World bank, hundreds of NGOs and the pittance from EU its got to be over 200 billion, so whats another 60 billion gonna last them? After kickbacks, maybe six months and they will lose another10,000 square miles, and another couple 100K civilians (cause they have few soldiers left). Then what?
Posted on 3/1/24 at 12:41 am to trinidadtiger
quote:there are so many examples of this happening
Now every piss arse country in NATO that wants to start something they cant finish can drag our arse into it.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 3:45 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
As I keep telling people, the aid is eventually going to get passed.
And then that Spring offensive will really get rolling.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 4:11 am to Philzilla2k
The aid bill, whatever it ultimately looks like, won’t matter much. If you look at the aid packages they’ve gotten smaller and smaller, but it’s not because of concerns over spending, it’s due to the struggle to produce or procure weapons for Ukraine. The Europeans have the same problem. They can allocate money, but that doesn’t mean they can convert it into actual production.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 4:37 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
If you look at the aid packages they’ve gotten smaller and smaller, but it’s not because of concerns over spending, it’s due to the struggle to produce or procure weapons for Ukraine.
It's due to the fact that Ukraine's upsized military now has enough equipment to fight. They don't really need more HIMARS launchers. They have enough SPGs -- not all that they would like -- but the large equipment disparities have been addressed. Ukraine mainly needs ammo to keep fighting, and that's not as expensive as the equipment.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 4:46 am to GOP_Tiger
Macron's idea is picking up steam:
LINK
Under the right conditions, Canada open to sending noncombat troops to Ukraine, Defence Minister Bill Blair says
LINK
Under the right conditions, Canada open to sending noncombat troops to Ukraine, Defence Minister Bill Blair says
quote:
OTTAWA—Canada is open to sending a limited number of military personnel to train Ukrainian troops within Ukraine, so long as such an operation took place far from the front lines of the war with Russia in a clear, noncombat role, Defence Minister Bill Blair says.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 5:04 am to GOP_Tiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
01 March 2024
The Russian defence industry significantly increased its production output in 2023. This was achieved by expanding the workforce to roughly 3.5 million people, increasing shift patterns and expanding existing production lines, coupled with bringing idle production capacity back into service.
A significant proportion of this increased output comes from refurbishment and modernisation of existing stocks rather than new production. For example, the vast majority of main battle tanks produced in 2023 consisted of refurbished vehicles.
Artillery munition production rose sharply in 2023 and will likely increase further in 2024. However, munition production is likely to peak in the next 12 months due to capacity constraints.
Although the defence industry is unable to fully meet the demands of Russian operations against Ukraine, it is almost certainly capable of delivering a materiel advantage over Ukraine throughout 2024.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
01 March 2024
The Russian defence industry significantly increased its production output in 2023. This was achieved by expanding the workforce to roughly 3.5 million people, increasing shift patterns and expanding existing production lines, coupled with bringing idle production capacity back into service.
A significant proportion of this increased output comes from refurbishment and modernisation of existing stocks rather than new production. For example, the vast majority of main battle tanks produced in 2023 consisted of refurbished vehicles.
Artillery munition production rose sharply in 2023 and will likely increase further in 2024. However, munition production is likely to peak in the next 12 months due to capacity constraints.
Although the defence industry is unable to fully meet the demands of Russian operations against Ukraine, it is almost certainly capable of delivering a materiel advantage over Ukraine throughout 2024.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 5:20 am to cypher
In her op-ed “Western Weapons Are Ukraine’s Only Hope” (Feb. 16) Jillian Kay Melchior quotes Mykola Bielieskov: “You either fight with modern weapons or you fight with men. That’s it.”
I agree.
In July 2023, before our son Andrew Webber died on the Ukrainian battlefield, he gave his American-made protective gear to another soldier. Andrew didn’t curse that decision, or the lack of medical equipment, as he lay mortally wounded in an area previously protected by his gear. In this battle against tyranny and oppression, Andrew’s story is, unfortunately, a common one due to the lack of modern weaponry and other resources.
Andrew was a husband and father, a West Point graduate with a law degree from Northwestern.
A former infantry officer, he served three deployments, held two commands and received many awards and medals, including a Purple Heart and Bronze Star. Holding American ideals dear, he believed the Russian government was the greatest threat to freedom and democracy world-wide and felt he had to act. He planned, on his return from Ukraine, to ask U.S. lawmakers to act urgently and provide the resources desperately needed.
On behalf of Andrew and the American ideals he embodied, I ask lawmakers to keep the emergency military- aid spending package alive to ensure the lack of modern weaponry and other resources is no longer a common cause of death for those fighting this war.
Karla Stephens-Webber
South Bend, Wash.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 5:39 am to Eurocat
quote:
he believed the Russian government was the greatest threat to freedom and democracy world-wide and felt he had to act.
This post was edited on 3/1/24 at 5:42 am
Posted on 3/1/24 at 7:53 am to SirWinston
aren't you one of those who constantly whine for Ukraine supporters to join in the war?
Well, this guy did and paid for it.
And you mock him.
How many of you that claim that Russia is fighting for Christianity, against the global cabal, against the WEF, against the RINOs, against the Dems... have stepped up and joined the Russian forces to wage this existentialist battle?
Such dedication from you and your fellow travellers...
Well, this guy did and paid for it.
And you mock him.
How many of you that claim that Russia is fighting for Christianity, against the global cabal, against the WEF, against the RINOs, against the Dems... have stepped up and joined the Russian forces to wage this existentialist battle?
Such dedication from you and your fellow travellers...
Posted on 3/1/24 at 7:59 am to TigersnJeeps
quote:
aren't you one of those who constantly whine for Ukraine supporters to join in the war?
Well, this guy did and paid for it.
And you mock him.
I am not really a fan of calling for people to fight for Ukraine or Russia. Some people do that (especially on your side), but I am not one of them.
quote:
How many of you that claim that Russia is fighting for Christianity, against the global cabal, against the WEF, against the RINOs, against the Dems... have stepped up and joined the Russian forces to wage this existentialist battle?
My 3rd consecutive vote for Donald J. Trump is needed to save our Republic.
This post was edited on 3/1/24 at 8:00 am
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:13 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The aid bill, whatever it ultimately looks like, won’t matter much. If you look at the aid packages they’ve gotten smaller and smaller, but it’s not because of concerns over spending, it’s due to the struggle to produce or procure weapons for Ukraine. The Europeans have the same problem. They can allocate money, but that doesn’t mean they can convert it into actual production.
The USA has been spending around 50 billion USD per year for the past two years. This aid package for Ukraine is 60 billion USD. That’s an increase in aid. Plus Europe and Canada are increasing their aid which allows the USA to not have to spend as much.
Yes, EU and USA have trouble producing the shells. However, production in the USA and Europe is increasing each month. Ukraine is also producing its own shells. The USA and EU countries are also figuring out how to diversify their shell supply sources. The Czechs bought 800,000 shells from South Korea and some other nations. South Korea laws prevent it from sending military equipment to countries engaged in conflict but it can sell to neutral countries and the neutral countries can give or sell to Ukraine. The same goes for countries like Egypt who don’t want to ruin their relationship with Russia. Plus Ukraine was rationing shells because their previous general in command was preparing for another offensive this year. Their new commander is supposedly cancelled that plan and is focusing on the defensive which uses less shells and frees up the shells allocated for the offensive.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:15 am to SirWinston
Former CIA officer Larry Johnson weighs in on the NYT story. This is similar to Matt Taibbi's piece.
LINK
quote:
NY TIMES PLAYS CIA MESSENGER — TURN OFF THE LIGHTS, THE PARTY IS OVER
quote:
Yes, it is true that U.S. intelligence, along with NATO, supplied Ukraine with intelligence used to carry out missile strikes on Russian positions. Admitting this in the pages of the NY Times is reckless and dangerous. I am pretty sure the Russians already knew this but putting this on the record with U.S. intelligence sources is a casus belli for Russia. Can you imagine the reaction if Russian intelligence confirmed they provided intel to a group or country that attacked the U.S.? Do you think Washington would ignore that and not seek retribution? Of course not
quote:
The propaganda purpose of the article is revealed by the decision of the reporters to repeat the specious claims that Russia shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 and that Russia “meddled” in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. We have had a slew of revelations over the last two months, principally from Matt Taibbi and Michael Schellenberger, showing that it was the Clinton campaign with the help of the CIA and the FBI who meddled in the 2016 Presidential campaign in a failed effort to defeat Donald Trump. Entous and Schwirtz insert the bogus claim that Ukraine fingered the Russian officer responsible for “election interference.”
In one joint operation, a HUR team duped an officer from Russia’s military intelligence service into providing information that allowed the C.I.A. to connect Russia’s government to the so-called Fancy Bear hacking group, which had been linked to election interference efforts in a number of countries.
No. Fancy Bear was a CIA creation that used Vault 7 tools to create a fake cyber trail that implicated Russian intelligence. I discussed the CIA’s role in this operation four years ago in my piece, DID JOHN BRENNAN’S CIA CREATE GUCCIFER 2.0 AND DCLEAKS? Here is the relevant portion of that piece:
quote:
The goal of the Entous/Schwirtz article is simple — portray the CIA as a great organization who did magnificent work in Ukraine but were not able to complete the mission of destroying Russia because the Republican Congress failed to provide funding and the Ukrainian intelligence service was uncontrollable.
quote:
We’re then treated to a litany of all the incredible secrets the CIA passed to Ukraine about Russia’s plans to murder the government and military leaders in Kiev. But we’re also told that the CIA trained Ukie intel squads are something of a Rogue Elephant.
quote:
Got it? Budanov is a reckless, out of control spy. Message delivered. Entous and Schwirtz then return to the narrative of how great a job the CIA did in protecting Ukraine from those nasty Russians. For example, they recount how the CIA informed Zelensky that Ukraine had stopped the Russian invasion cold at the end of March 2022:
When the Russian assault on Kyiv had stalled, the C.I.A. station chief rejoiced and told his Ukrainian counterparts that they were “punching the Russians in the face,” according to a Ukrainian officer who was in the room.
This is not true. It is a lie. Not a word is written about the negotiations that were underway in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine that had reached an agreement in principle until the U.S. and the U.K. intervened and ordered the Ukrainians to walk away. Can’t have that in this narrative. Nope. Got to find someone else to blame for the unfolding debacle. And Entous and Schwirtz oblige with this off-hand paragraph at the end of their piece:
The question that some Ukrainian intelligence officers are now asking their American counterparts — as Republicans in the House weigh whether to cut off billions of dollars in aid — is whether the C.I.A. will abandon them. “It happened in Afghanistan before and now it’s going to happen in Ukraine,” a senior Ukrainian officer said.
The answer to that question is left hanging. Entous and Schwirtz did their job — they polished up the CIA turd and laid the foundation of blame for the looming defeat at the hands of the Republican Congress and an out-of-control Ukrainian intel chief, Budanov. Once you grasp this you can understand why Kiril Budanov has been on the record in the press this week denying the U.S. claim that Putin killed Russian-dissident Nalvani and that Russia is using Iranian and North Korean missiles. Looks like Budanov understands he can no longer count on the CIA to have his back.
LINK
This post was edited on 3/1/24 at 8:17 am
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:19 am to klrstix
quote:
Any details on what knocked it out? a cursory search indicates the Russians claim a Piranha10 drone took it out.. ETA: Source Vid who knows...
I hope our military observers/advisors in Ukraine are paying attention and the “top men” in the US Army are figuring out how to counter the drones. I know the USA has been adding the Israeli Trophy APS to its M1A2s, and Rheinmental is incorporating it into its Leopard 2 upgrade package. However, IDK if it provides adequate protection from drone strikes. The Russian “cope cages” and their active protection system have not been effective against drones but hopefully western APS is better than Russian.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:19 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Former CIA officer Larry Johnson weighs in on the NYT story.
Have you watched even a few of his videos? Total nutjob who LOVES Russia and Putin. Associate of Pedo Ritter and almost always wrong MacGregor
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:20 am to CitizenK
Same for Ray McGovern and anyone who doesn't spout MSM talking points, eh?
Why did NYT blow all those sources and methods? That seems reckless.
Why did NYT blow all those sources and methods? That seems reckless.
This post was edited on 3/1/24 at 8:22 am
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:23 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
As I keep telling people, the aid is eventually going to get passed.
I am torn on this. I want the aid package passed but the republicans are giving up their only leverage to get something on the border done. Why can’t republicans and democrats just agree to spend 105 billion USD on aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and agree to spend 20 billion or so on the border fence? It’s not like anyone in DC is actually worried about the debt and deficit.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:26 am to WeeWee
quote:
I have seen Ukrainian reports saying that the panels allowed the crew to escape. However, I have seen Russian reports saying the crew was killed. However, the turret is still attached to the tank which is not something that happens when a Russian tank gets hit.
The reason the Abrams doesn’t blow it’s turret like Russian tanks is because of how the ammo is stored. On the Abrams, all the main gun ammo is stored in the back of the turret in an ammo storage compartment that’s separate from the crew compartment of the turret. The loader had an automatic door to access the ammo racks.
(This is actually the old 105mm M1, but the ammo door operates the same on the 120mm M1A1 and A2)
Also, the ammo is stored backwards, with the projectile facing away from the crew compartment.
But the most important feature is that the back of the turret where the ammo storage is loaded is not armored. In fact, if you knock on the side of the turret behind where the bustle rack is loaded, you’ll notice the metal sounds like it’s only maybe a few millimeters thick. And on top of this section of the turret is where you’ll find the blowout panels.
The whole thing is designed to allow the crew to survive an ammo rack detonation by directing the blast back and away from the separate crew compartment. As long as the ammo rack door is closed, the crew should be safe.
The Russians though have their ammo rack located directly under the crew compartment in a carousel auto-loader system…
… if you’ll notice their ammunition is two piece, with a separate projectile and powder charge. The fact the ammo is (1) stored under the crew compartment and the powder charge is very exposed, and thus easy to set off, is why Russian tanks send their turret flying when hit.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 8:28 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Same for Ray McGovern and anyone who doesn't spout MSM talking points, eh?
McGovern's testimony at the UN on Nordstream was a Unicorns, Butterflies and Rainbows Kumbaya thing without anything relevant. Nutter to the max, zero to do with MSM or anything else.
You need credible sources. Ritter, McGovern, Johnson, and MacGregor are not even close.
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