re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria held the Seventh Congress of Transnistrian Deputies on February 28 and adopted a series of decisions that likely aim to provide the Kremlin with justifications for a wide range of possible escalatory actions against Moldova — actions the Kremlin can pursue both immediately and over the long-term.

The Kremlin has yet to signal an immediate route for escalation following the Congress of Transnistrian Deputies, although Russian President Vladimir Putin may respond to the Transnistrian requests during his speech to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29.

The Kremlin can use the outcomes of the Congress of Transnistrian Deputies to justify a range of possible COAs that are not mutually exclusive.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted another strike on a Russian personnel concentration in occupied Donetsk Oblast, once again sparking ire amongst Russian milbloggers and re-surfacing concerns about Ukraine’s use of HIMARS systems.

Russia continues cracking down on actors it deems “foreign agents” to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the March 2024 presidential election.

A Financial Times (FT) investigation published on February 27, reportedly based on leaked classified Russian military documents from 2008-2014, outlines Russia’s purported criteria for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Turkey and China appear to be pursuing their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin will likely exploit to further its long-standing narratives regarding negotiations and the war.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu inspected the Tula State University’s Military Training Center and several defense industrial base (DIB) enterprises in Tula Oblast on February 28.

Russian occupation authorities are using early voting for the Russian presidential election to cloak Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine in a veneer of fabricated legitimacy.

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Yes and no. While I dislike Jake Sullivan's plan to wear down Russia and eventually force them to sue for peace through civic and/or economic collapse, it's likely to work in time, if the West gives Ukraine the necessary support. There are a number of ways that Russia is living on borrowed time.

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But Biden and Sullivan aren’t giving Ukraine adequate support in a timely manner. Neither is the EU despite Germany’s promises. Ukraine’s only hope of regaining any of its territory is to hold on and hope Trump defeats Biden and keeps his word that he will greatly increase aid when Putin doesn’t negotiate in good faith (which we all know he won’t). I am as pro-Ukrainian as it comes but it is plain to see that the EU’s false promises and Biden’s feet dragging last year had a bigger negative impact on Ukraine than the Russian military has this entire conflict.

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Commercial aviation is just one example. Russia is a large country, and commercial aviation is essential to the economy, but the Boeing and Airbus planes in the air are increasingly jerry-rigged with 2nd-hand parts or even makeshift parts. It's not sustainable, because those planes will eventually start falling out of the air, and there's no self-sufficiency about it at all.

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That is not going to have an effect on the war. It’s just going to get Russian civilians killed in crashes. If 300,000 or so dead Russian soldiers, the ruble being so low that the average Russian can’t afford food, the heating infrastructure falling apart, and Chinese cars replacing German cars (a major status symbol for middle class Russians) hasn’t moved the Russian populace than a few thousand dead civilians in airplane crashes won’t either. Remember Yeltsin saw that the economics of communism had failed and he wanted to change the economic conditions of the USSR/Russia. Yeltsin saw the collapse of the USSR as his best chance for power and so he helped to dissolve it. He never really wanted democracy or freedoms for the Russian people. The non-Russian ethnic groups of the USSR wanted to break away and did, but the vast majority Russians wanted the USSR to stay together because the state looked out for them if they stayed good little sheep. Basically the Russian people like being led by a dictator even if it means persecution and ruin. The people of Georgia, Ukraine, and even Belarus protested against rigged elections in the past 20 years. The Russian people just roll over and accept it. The Russian people are too big of pussies to take risks and fight which is why Yeltsin and then Putin and their oligarch buddies have been able to steal vast wealth from Russia with impunity in the past 30 years.

Syrskyi: Ukraine downs another Russian Su-34 jet - total of 2 over night

by Elsa Court and The Kyiv Independent news desk February 29, 2024 11:31 AM

Ukrainian forces shot down another Su-34 attack plane, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Feb. 29, hours after Ukraine's Air Force reported that one Su-34 had been downed overnight.

The first Su-34 was downed at 1 a.m. local time (EET) in the eastern direction, according to the Air Force.

Another Su-34 jet was downed at around 9 a.m. local time. The planes were downed "in the Avdiivka and Mariupol directions," Syrskyi said.

Russia has lost almost a dozen Su-34 aircraft in February alone, according to the Air Force. Each plane is estimated to cost around $36 million each.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
29 February 2024

Territory west of Avdiivka remains the focal effort of Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russia took control of Avdiivka on 17 February 2024, and has since advanced approximately 6 km from the centre of the town.

Russia has almost certainly taken control of several villages in the area: Lastochkyne, Stepove and Sieverne. These tactical gains serve primarily to consolidate Russian positions around Avdiivka. Russia is also likely seeking to build momentum on the axis to take advantage of the fact that there are fewer fixed, well defended positions, and urban areas from which Ukrainian forces can defend.

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You are closely aligned with Chaim "Bill" Kristol, the Bidens, the CIA, the MIC, the EU, and the Kagans.

There is literally a 0.0% chance that yours is the right side.

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"Bill Kristol says shitting in your pants is bad. The CIA, MIC, EU and Kagans (...who?) say that shitting in your pants is bad."

"That's how you know shitting in your pants is good."

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Putin must be feeling desperate. In the past, when he's said this kind of thing, Xi has shut him back up.

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Macron said, "Maybe we'll send French soldiers to Ukraine" and Putin lost his shite.

I hear that Ukraine is just about out of men, the country is dead, etc ... and yet they don't have reactions to Russia recruiting from Ecudaor, Nigeria, etc.

Putin seemed really mad at French soldiers in Ukraine. I wonder why?

And there's actual evidence of five of those 13 reported kills. The Ukrainian MoD is always overoptimistic on their reports.

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Vladimir Putin has said that western support for Ukraine risks triggering a global war, in his most explicit threat to use nuclear weapons since he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

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This is the adult version of "quit hitting yourself"

"Stop giving my enemy support in the war I started or else you risk making the situation I caused worse!"

Putin is clearly not appearing to be calm and cool these days…

Tucker seems to have had an epiphany

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American journalist Tucker Carlson, in a podcast interview, criticized Putin's claim that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is necessary for "denazification". Carlson called it "the dumbest thing" he's ever heard and believes Putin uses the term "Nazi" simply to demonize Ukrainians. Carlson sees no evidence of a Nazi movement in Ukraine. He also found Putin's interview to be unimpressive, filled with historical ramblings, falsehoods, and outlandish claims.

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