re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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"Avdiivka killing fields, footage shot by the 110th mechanized brigade shows how many Russian infantry man lay dead in the fields near Avdiivka, not being picked up by their comrades."

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Oh, but Sir Winston said the war ended 18 months ago.

Were these Russians not told that Ukraine lost the war 18 months ago?

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The economies of the Axis powers were greater than that of the Allies in 1941 but they still lost. What month?

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1/1/1941-12/6/1941. The economic impact of the USA joining the war was not felt until later because the arsenal if democracy was not in full gear until late 1942 or even 1943. Until the allied bombing campaigns started hurting Germany and its allies their economies were strong and keeping up with the allies. Also until the Battle of the Atlantic was won in 1943 Britain was one or two missed convoys away from economic collapse.

Russia just fired multiple ballistic missiles at Kiev. Reports of huge explosions and air raid sirens going off.

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This is hard to believe.

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Not really if you stop and think about it. In 1941, Britain was under the noose of the u-boats. The USSR was just starting to get its economy going and even though its GDP was high it had to dismantle all of the industry west of the Urals and move it east of the Urals or risk losing it. Japan whose empire included Manchuria and the economically important areas of China. Germany had started rearming and mobilizing its economy in the 1930s. The Axis powers were not just Germany, Italy, and Japan either. In 1941, the Axis powers included most of Europe. Vichy France, Belgium, the Netherlands had been conquered and their economies were part of the Axis powers at that time. Plus all of eastern Europe except for St Petersburg and the part of European Russia between Moscow and Ural River had been conquered by or was allied with the Axis powers by the end of 1941. Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Portugal, Spain, and Turkey were the only European nations that were neutral and they traded with the Axis powers and not the Allies thanks to the U-boats.

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Can we see some data?

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Sure.

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In 1939, France and the UK confronted Germany (which included Austria) over Poland. The ratio of Anglo-French GDP to that of Germany/Austria was 1.25 for 1938. Allied GDP was superior to that of Germany/Austria. However, on the eve of war, Nazi Germany announced a treaty with the USSR. The Nazi-Soviet Pact certainly neutralized the economic weight of the USSR and it may have been interpreted as a German/Austrian alliance with the Soviet Union. In the latter case, the ratio of Allied/Axis GDP shifts to 0.64 and the Allied expectation is to lose. This rationalizes both the motivation of Hitler's solicitation of Stalin's blessing for the division of Poland and Hitler's expectation that the Anglo-French alliance would not declare war over the German/Austrian invasion of Poland, in terms of GDP. The willingness of France and the UK to engage Germany/Austria suggests that the former interpretation held sway with Allied decision makers.

During the battle of France, in 1940, Italy joined the war on the side of Germany/Austria. In terms of 1939 GDP, the Allies to Axis ratio now stood at 0.86 because of the addition of Italian GDP to the Axis. In a matter of weeks, France then agreed to an armistice because of Axis success on the battlefield. With the loss of France to the Allies, the Allies to Axis ratio dropped to 0.51 as the UK stood alone against the combined economic power of Germany/Austria and Italy. With the addition of French GDP, the Allies to Axis ratio plummets to 0.38 and an Axis victory seems economically certain. British intransigence, epitomized by Churchill's poignant bluster hid the hopelessness of the Allied cause from the public. Realistically, only the hope of a Soviet or American entry into the war on the Allied side provided any solace.


The fact that a majority of great power GDP remained neutral at the beginning of 1941 gave the Allies hope and threatened the Axis. Hitler altered that with the Axis invasion of the USSR. Adding the 1940 GDP of the USSR to that of the UK shifted the Allies to Axis great power GDP ratio to 1.31, giving the Allies the economic advantage lost with the entry of Italy in 1940. However, with French GDP included in the Axis tally, the ratio was 1.01.

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That calculation only takes the major European Axis and Allied powers into account. When you add in Japan (the Tripartite pact was signed in 1941 so Japan was part of the Axis powers for all of 1941) and the minor European Axis powers the Allied:Axis GDP ratio decreases to < 1.0 prior to 12/7/1941.

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The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) announced on December 11 that Russia will conduct voting for the 2024 presidential election in occupied Ukraine, likely in an attempt to legitimize the Russian occupation and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule.

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What do you call it When a country comes in, takes a lot of your land, holds elections, and installs their leader?

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stale mate

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ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

US intelligence reportedly assessed that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in fall 2023 and through the upcoming winter aim to weaken Western support for Ukraine instead of achieving any immediate operational objectives.

Russian forces may be conducting costly offensive operations at a time unfavorable for ground maneuver to time the potential shift in battlefield initiative with ongoing conversations in the West about continued support to Ukraine.

US intelligence also assessed that the war in Ukraine has devastated the pre-war Russian military, although Russia has partially offset these losses and continues to prepare for a long war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with various US officials, including President Joe Biden, and spoke to Congress about US military assistance to Ukraine in Washington, DC on December 12.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine on December 12.

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian special services may have conducted the major cyberattack on Ukrainian mobile operator Kyivstar on December 12.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that GUR cyber units recently conducted a successful cyber operation against the Russian Federal Tax Service (FNS).

Russian news outlet RBK reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has designated prominent Russian milbloggers as “trusted persons” in his presidential election campaign for the first time.

A St. Petersburg court sentenced three underage Uzbek migrants and their parents to deportation for extinguishing the Eternal Flame in St. Petersburg amid ongoing tension between Central Asian communities in Russia and Russian authorities.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 12 and advanced in some areas.

The Russian State Duma adopted a series of laws on December 12 to help further bolster Rosgvardia’s and the Federal Security Service’s (FSB) force generation capacity.

Russian occupation authorities continue to use the Kremlin-funded pseudo-volunteer “Dvizheniye Pervykh” (Movement of the First) youth organization to indoctrinate Ukrainian youth in occupied Ukraine with Russian and cultural national identities.

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The declassified intelligence assessment reportedly stated that Russian forces have lost 87 percent of the total number of their pre-war active-duty ground troops and two-thirds of the tanks in their inventory before February 24, 2022.[10] The declassified intelligence assessment reportedly stated that Russian forces lost 315,000 personnel out of the 360,000 personnel, 2,200 out of 3,500 tanks, and 4,400 out of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers that participated in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[11] The assessment reportedly stated that Russian ground forces have lost over a quarter of their pre-invasion stockpiles of military equipment as of late November 2023, reducing the complexity and scale of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.[12]

The Russian leadership has undertaken extensive force generation measures to offset manpower losses, however, and Ukrainian intelligence reported in September 2023 that Russian forces had 420,000 personnel in occupied Ukraine.[13] Partial mobilization began in September 2022 and ongoing Russian crypto-mobilization efforts have very likely offset the Russian losses reported by US intelligence, although new Russian personnel likely have lower combat capabilities than those they replaced.[14] The Russian military command is also pursuing long-term restructuring and expansion efforts to form strategic reserves and prepare for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO, although short-to-medium-term manpower requirements in Ukraine are likely undermining these efforts.[15] Russia has been gradually mobilizing its defense industrial base (DIB) to address materiel losses in Ukraine and sustain a prolonged war effort, although there are no indications that Russia has made significant progress in offsetting armored vehicle losses in Ukraine.[16] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on December 11 during a speech at the US National Defense University that Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting the Russian economy and society to a war-time footing

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Russia has lost a shitload of its original army if this is anywhere close to accurate.

LINK

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Anyone seeing any official reports on this?

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All that I can see is 32 adults and 2 children wounded from falling debris

Update: 53 injured in Russian attack on Kyiv

by Olena Goncharova December 13, 2023 8:18 AM

A Russian missile attack against Kyiv during the early hours of Dec. 13 injured 53 people, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said via his official Telegram channel. At least 20 people were taken to the hospital, including two children. Some 33 civilians received treatment on the ground.

Ukraine's Air Force reported that all 10 ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv were shot down as well as 10 Shahed drones.

In the Dniprovskyi district, missile debris damaged the facade of a high-rise building, and one of the balconies caught fire. At least eight cars were burning when firefighters arrived on scene. A total of 17 people were rescued from the building, including seven children.

In the Darnytskyi district, a 400 square meter residential building caught fire. The fire was extinguished by morning, Ukraine's Emergency Service reported early on Dec. 13.

There were also reports of debris falling in the north-eastern Desnianskyi and southwestern Holosiivskyi districts of the capital.

Klitschko said in an another update that missile debris fell on one of the buildings of a Kyiv city hospital, damaging its windows. At least one person was injured. He did not specify which hospital was targeted.

The Kyiv Independent

Don't get you hopes up regarding Donald Tusk. He is the typical European version of Biden or Obama. EU bureaucrat. Polands version of Angela Merkel. In other words, worthless.