re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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And you guys will call your stalemate a win!

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Russia's invasion of Ukraine will get Ukraine expedited EU/NATO membership, security guarantees and economic integration into the European markets.

Ukraine took the biggest/hardest shot from the "2nd best army in the world" and survived. 10 years from now Ukraine will have a higher GDP per capita than Russia.

Yes, it's a win.

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this seems to me like a pretty good donation for this small country.

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Based on GDP, it's the equivalent of the US giving another $67 billion.

And, yes, the Danes have already given a LOT.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin appears to be returning to expansionist rhetoric last observed before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in an effort to resurface its claims that Ukraine is part of historically Russian territory and discuss the borders Russian leaders regard as appropriate for a rump Ukrainian state.

The return of the Kremlin’s notion of a “partitioned Ukraine” is likely an organized effort to mislead the international community into rejecting key components of Ukraine’s sovereignty: its territorial integrity as defined in 1991 and its right to self-determination.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on December 13 that Ukraine’s decision to transition to defensive operations is motivated by winter weather conditions and not a “crisis,” in response to a recent New York Times (NYT) article.

Russian and Ukrainian sources continue to report on the impacts of challenging weather conditions on offensive and reconnaissance operations throughout the front, even as reported freezing and snowy winter conditions in eastern Ukraine offer the prospect of better conditions for maneuver.

A Russian “Storm-Z” assault unit instructor complained that deputy commanders of Russian irregular armed formations are spreading illogical and false claims that present an overly optimistic view of the situation on the front in the Russian media and information space.

The instructor’s complaint about Russian sources spreading unsubstantiated and maximalist claims largely aligns with ISW’s mapping practices.

The Russian MoD is likely using formalized irregular unit commanders as a conduit to spread incorrect information about Russian battlefield successes within the Russian information space in order to circumvent the MoD's responsibility.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes on the night of December 12 to 13.

A Russian hacker group reportedly linked to the Main Directorate of the Russian General Staff (GRU) and a Russia-aligned hacker group both claimed responsibility for the cyberattack on Ukrainian mobile operator Kyivstar.

The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) stripped naturalized Russian citizens of their Russian citizenship for the first time, likely as part of ongoing migrant crackdowns aimed at coercing migrants into Russian military service while placating the xenophobic Russian ultranationalist community.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended the second Ukraine-Northern Europe Summit in Oslo, Norway on December 13.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, north of and near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in various sectors.

The Chuvash Republic is offering bonuses to foreigners who fight in the war in Ukraine, likely as part of efforts to recruit migrants to the Russian military.

Occupation authorities continue efforts to destroy Ukrainian national and historical identity.

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He has done in the past what German paymasters tell him to do, when he was in this same position for several years. Cut deals with Russia and China back then. Bought only French and German weaponry.

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100% truth.

He is already questioning the legitimacy of the previous governments military contracts with S. Korea. He stated that they are checking for fraud ( there has never been any indication of fraud with those contracts). Some are beginning to say that this new government may try to use that to cancel the contracts with S. Korea. And it just happens that a German official comes out at the same time and says that Poland is disappointed in the tanks they have received from S. Korea and stated that Poland and France "would have an opportunity to get on board" with the updated Leopard II project. Looks like Germany may be getting some military contracts in the future.
He pushed Merkel's reset with Putin hard when he was President of the EU Council (We can change Putin with trade). That turned out swell. Tusk has always been known as a center left establishment/globalist type.

He ran on Law and Justices immigration reforms and state sovereignty, which is a 100% departure from his policies when he was prime minister before.

We will see if he keeps his word.

From the WSJ (Paywalled) Bolding added by me

https://www.wsj.com/world/world-disarray-diplomat-pessimistic-b2dad137

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A World in Disarray? A Longtime Diplomat Says It’s Worse Than That
Richard Haass offers his perspective on the wars in Ukraine and Israel, and China’s outlook

Sometimes it seems as if disorder is the new world order.

Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and challenges from China were some of the main topics of conversation at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council earlier this week in Washington, D.C. Former Executive Washington Editor Gerald F. Seib dug into these issues with Richard Haass, a former head of the Council on Foreign Relations who also served in the State Department under Presidents George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan, at the White House under George H.W. Bush and at the Pentagon under Jimmy Carter. Edited excerpts of the interview follow.

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A Pessimistic Sequel
WSJ: In 2017 you wrote a book about diplomacy titled “A World In Disarray.” If the world was in disarray then, what is it now? What’s the title of your sequel?

HAASS: Disarray on Stilts. When the book came out, I was criticized for being too negative. In retrospect, I wasn’t negative enough.

WSJ: There is a dictators-versus-democracy struggle, a decline in U.S. influence over global affairs, the rise of China. Which of those factors are contributing to this disarray?

HAASS: All of the above: The rise of China, which is not a status quo power, represents a shift in the balance; a truly disaffected Russia with the ability to do something about it, as we’re seeing in Ukraine and elsewhere; a shift in power in various forms moving around the world.

The domestic disarray in this country has really contributed to it. We’re less able, less willing to act effectively in the world. The gap between global challenges and global responses—there is no international community. Let’s get that on the record.

Declining U.S. Power?
WSJ: The Russians could have moved on Ukraine any time in the past 20 years. They didn’t do it until now.

HAASS: Well, they did it in 2014.

WSJ: But not in 1994, when Boris Yeltsin was there. And the Chinese could have acted provocatively in the South China Sea before. They’re doing it now. That to me says there is a sense of declining U.S. power.

HAASS: Our relative position in the world has deteriorated, which, again, is in part because of the buildup of others. We’ve got a real problem with the defense manufacturing base.

We’ve got to do much more to back up Taiwan, to discourage the Chinese from moving there. And with Ukraine, it’s an indirect effort on our part. What could we do to increase support? The question is how do we avoid walking away from it.

WSJ: What is the path out of the predicament in Ukraine?

HAASS: Two years ago, if we had said that two years after a Russian invasion Ukraine would still control 80-odd percent of its territory, would have fought the Russians to a standstill, every one of us would have said, “Where do we sign? What a fantastic outcome.”

As desirable as it is that Ukraine recover all of its territory, it isn’t going to happen. In part, because Russia can produce a lot more. And, in a pinch, North Korea, Iran, conceivably China would help them out.

Ukraine needs to move away from its current strategy. We need to define success as not that Ukraine militarily liberates all of its land, but that Ukraine becomes a permanent fixture. They move away from an offensive strategy, which I believe cannot succeed, to a defensive strategy, which can succeed.

My guess is it has to wait for a very different Russia that might be willing to make some trades in exchange for no longer being a political and economic pariah.

WSJ: Two potential problems with that: Vladimir Putin would take the scenario you just described and declare victory. And the follow-on Russia might be worse.

HAASS: Russia could say that they won, but they haven’t. Plus, you’d have Ukraine integrated one way or another into the EU and NATO. You’d have a thriving Western country, which is exactly what Putin doesn’t want to see.

His immediate successor might be worse. Maybe his successor’s successor, though, won’t be. At some point in Russia, Vladimir Putin is going to be seen as the guy who drove Russia over the cliff into the ditch.

WSJ: There are two knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine. A friendship without limits between Russia and China, and a bizarre situation in which Russia is dependent on weapons from North Korea and Iran. Are those now new features of the international landscape?

HAASS: Well, the latter certainly is. I mean Russia, Iran, North Korea, those really are the pariahs. China is not totally comfortable there, nor is it totally comfortable with its no-limits relationship with Putin.

That’s not China’s economic future.

WSJ: China isn’t comfortable about a friendship without limits with Russia, despite their joint proclamation in 2022?

HAASS: Yes. There’s a lot of grumbling in China about what Putin told them, whether he misled them. We don’t know what China would do to help Russia in extremis. But they’ve accepted some limits.

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Germany delivers Patriot missile defense system, ammunition to Ukraine

by Elsa Court and The Kyiv Independent news desk December 14, 2023 7:12 PM

Germany has handed over a Patriot air defense system, Patriot missiles, and more ammunition to Ukraine, the German government announced on Dec. 14.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Dec. 13 that the Patriot system previously pledged by Berlin would be deployed in Ukraine and operational by the end of 2023. It is the second Patriot system provided by Germany to Ukraine.

Patriot systems are vital in protecting Ukraine's airspace, as they have proven effective even against advanced Russian ballistics such as Kinzhal missiles.

The Kyiv Independent

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It’s time for the annual Putin presser and phone-in, combined into one – the first time he’s done it since the invasion of Ukraine.

Pavel Zarubin is showing off a huge pile of questions supposedly sent in by ordinary Russians. Expect this to be even more stage-managed than usual

Zarubin, the Swiftie-esque Putin fanboy who is moderating this, says some questions have been resolved already. "In the morning I complained I hadn't been paid my salary, and by the evening I got it!", one ordinary Russian supposedly said.

Putin says Russia has "strengthened its sovereignty," and seen off a sanctions onslaught from the west. Putin credits the "high consolidation of Russian society" and "stability of the financial-economic system."

Putin, sitting with his trusty presidential thermos, reels off a ream of economic statistics – from a sheet, though in years past he's memorized them in advance.

He says Russia's GDP will be up 3.5% year-on-year and stable growth is guaranteed, even with inflation at 7.5-8%.

Putin says there will be peace with Ukraine "only when we achieve our goals [...] and those goals have not changed."

They still include the "de-Nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine – i.e. a total capitulation to Russia.

Putin also sounds confident that western military support for Ukraine is drying up.

"Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the west, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is," he says.

A message from the "Veterans Battalion," which is named after Putin – the troops have his picture on their insignia. Audible gunfire in the background.

They complain the various groups fighting in Ukraine aren't all getting the same benefits. Putin promises to sort this out.

Already we are on the history rant stage of this:
– The 3rd round of the 2004 Ukrainian election was irregular
– "Odessa is a Russian city and everyone knows that"
– discussion of the Russo-Turkish wars in the 19th century
– everything is America's fault and also Lenin's

Putin crows at length about Ukraine's battlefield failures.

"The enemy announced a big counteroffensive. none of it worked anywhere," he said. "I don't even know why they do this. They are just sending their men out to be destroyed. It's a one-way ticket."

Turkish media get a question about Gaza.

"What is happening is a catastrophe," Putin says. "Look at the special military operation and what is happening in Gaza and feel the difference. Nothing like that is happening in Ukraine."

A *lot* of questions from people in the patchwork quilt of Russian volunteer units in Ukraine complaining about not getting benefits.

Note the brass knuckle tattoo in the background here – itself a sign of where Russia is as a society nearly two years into the invasion.

"In Russia there are many hackers sitting at home, and some of them are in prison for hacking. We must unite them and create something new! All that talent is going to waste!"

For some reason Putin memorized statistics about how many people are taking inter-city buses and looks very pleased he remembered them

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LINK

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The EU just voted to formally begin membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova.

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Orban had insisted that Hungary would veto Ukraine's nomination, but he backed down at the last minute.

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"Hungary decided that if the 26 want to do this, they should go their own way."

"It’s a completely senseless, irrational and incorrect decision to start negotiations with Ukraine under these circumstances."

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