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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/25/23 at 11:04 pm to DavidTheGnome
Posted on 11/25/23 at 11:04 pm to DavidTheGnome
quote:
I’m sure it’s been discussed here already but I heard something interesting that Putin is keeping the war largely away from the people of Moscow / St Petersburg / the west in general by drawing many of the soldiers sent to Ukraine from far off Siberian parts.
Rural people are more traditional and more likely to volunteer. They’re over represented in the ground forces especially.
Both Moscow and Saint Petersburg have run campaigns to encourage enlistment.
Moscow has tried to minimize the economic impact of the war though.
quote:
This of course decimates some of the small towns in the east however but I doubt that’s much of a concern.
You’re projecting Western ideas about rural people onto Russia. Russians have a much stronger sense of communal identity than we do.
1
Posted on 11/26/23 at 5:07 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
You’re projecting Western ideas about rural people onto Russia. Russians have a much stronger sense of communal identity than we do.
ROFL. You are definitely FSB.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 5:20 am to GOP_Tiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 26 November 2023
Exceptional Russian air transport movements through November 2023 suggest that Russia has likely moved strategic air defence systems from its Baltic coast enclave of Kaliningrad, to backfill recent losses on the Ukraine front.
This follows an uptick in losses of SA-21 air defence systems in Russian-occupied Ukraine in late October 2023.
As its most westerly outpost and bordered on three sides by NATO member states, Russia sees Kaliningrad as one of its most strategically sensitive regions. The fact that the Russian MoD appears willing to accept additional risk here highlights the overstretch the war has caused for some of Russia's key, modern capabilities.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 26 November 2023
Exceptional Russian air transport movements through November 2023 suggest that Russia has likely moved strategic air defence systems from its Baltic coast enclave of Kaliningrad, to backfill recent losses on the Ukraine front.
This follows an uptick in losses of SA-21 air defence systems in Russian-occupied Ukraine in late October 2023.
As its most westerly outpost and bordered on three sides by NATO member states, Russia sees Kaliningrad as one of its most strategically sensitive regions. The fact that the Russian MoD appears willing to accept additional risk here highlights the overstretch the war has caused for some of Russia's key, modern capabilities.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 11:53 am to cypher
Russia pretends to worry about NATO threatening then yet weakens their defenses against NATO in order to help conquer Ukraine. Why is that?
Posted on 11/26/23 at 12:02 pm to doubleb
Because all the talk about NATO was just a red herring
Posted on 11/26/23 at 12:14 pm to AGGIES
quote:
Because all the talk about NATO was just a red herring
No, I think it's somewhat legitimate, but I also think Putin massively, massively underestimated the response.
Most people in the US learn about the "winter war" in school, no? Finland held off Russia and utterly embarrassed them, but ran out of ammo and accepted a "truce."
That's what happened in Ukraine, IMO. Russia will gain little, lose a lot and things will end roughly where they are. As long as peace includes Ukraine joining the EU, it's a net positive for Ukraine.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 12:39 pm to RuLSU
Without NATO, Russia is just going to continue keep chipping away at 15% of Ukrainian territory every 10 years.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 2:27 pm to DavidTheGnome
quote:
I’m sure it’s been discussed here already but I heard something interesting that Putin is keeping the war largely away from the people of Moscow / St Petersburg / the west in general by drawing many of the soldiers sent to Ukraine from far off Siberian parts. That way the population of the larger and more important cities don’t see much in the way of casualties and since most Russians get their news from TV the Russian propaganda machine simply takes care of the rest. This of course decimates some of the small towns in the east however but I doubt that’s much of a concern.
It’s not a concern for Putin. He can decimate the local population and then import more North Koreans in a system that is basically state sponsored slavery.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 3:18 pm to WeeWee
There's a massive storm in the Black Sea right now, battering Crimea with hurricane-force winds. Reports indicate that some Russian defensive positions along Crimean beaches have been washed away.
The worst of the storm hasn't hit yet, and a quarter of Crimea is already without power. The storm is also going to dump massive amounts of rain and snow on Eastern Ukraine and the front lines there.
The worst of the storm hasn't hit yet, and a quarter of Crimea is already without power. The storm is also going to dump massive amounts of rain and snow on Eastern Ukraine and the front lines there.
This post was edited on 11/26/23 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 11/26/23 at 4:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The worst of the storm hasn't hit yet, and a quarter of Crimea is already without power.
quote:
The storm is also going to dump massive amounts of rain and snow on Eastern Ukraine and the front lines there.
I hope both sides have their waders ready.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 4:54 pm to AGGIES
quote:
Without NATO, Russia is just going to continue keep chipping away at 15% of Ukrainian territory every 10 years.
Joining the EU is de-facto NATO membership, as well as preferred access to the single market. It keeps Ukraine safer and makes them richer.
You think post-Kyiv, post-Kharkiv, post-Kherson meltdowns were big? Wait until the ascension talks in December. That's going to be LSU losing to Troy levels of melt from the pro-Russian crowd.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 4:57 pm to RuLSU
quote:
Joining the EU is de-facto NATO membership, as well as preferred access to the single market. It keeps Ukraine safer and makes them richer.
You think post-Kyiv, post-Kharkiv, post-Kherson meltdowns were big? Wait until the ascension talks in December. That's going to be LSU losing to Troy levels of melt from the pro-Russian crowd.
I have bad news for you. I am expecting the EU to weasle out of Ukraine's ascension.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 6:07 pm to GOP_Tiger
Ooh, I hadn't thought about that.
When the storm passes, Ukraine may have a window to get its naval drones on target.
quote:
Waiting to see impact on boom defenses across the entrance to Sevastopol harbor.
And also the strings of barges chained across the west side of Kerch Bridge to defend against Ukrainian drone boats (USVs)
When the storm passes, Ukraine may have a window to get its naval drones on target.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 6:13 pm to WeeWee
quote:
It’s not a concern for Putin. He can decimate the local population and then import more North Koreans in a system that is basically state sponsored slavery.
They may not have to, Margarita Simonyan predicts there will be mass migration from the US and it will fix their looming demographic crisis. I find it odd she acknowledges the demographic issue. Who will be the first in line to fix Russian toilets? Sir Winston?
Youtube 1:35 minute video
Posted on 11/26/23 at 6:41 pm to WeeWee
quote:
I have bad news for you. I am expecting the EU to weasle out of Ukraine's ascension.
Why so?
Posted on 11/26/23 at 6:42 pm to ticklechain
Because they're Europeans.
Posted on 11/26/23 at 6:58 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Margarita Simonyan predicts there will be mass migration from the US and it will fix their looming demographic crisis.
Speaking of Russian female propagandists, does anyone else find it odd that we haven’t heard a peep about Dugin’s daughter since she got blown up? Not even a show trial? After all Russia caught the supposed culprits very quickly.
This post was edited on 11/26/23 at 7:04 pm
Posted on 11/26/23 at 7:39 pm to REG861
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed drone strikes on Ukraine on the night of November 25-26.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly conducted a large-scale drone strike on Russian territory, and Russian occupation officials accused Ukrainian forces of launching a strike on occupied Donetsk Oblast that resulted in widespread power outages.
Russian forces reportedly complained about the vulnerability of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast amid continued complaints about weak Russian capabilities on the east bank.
Russia continues to face skilled and unskilled labor shortages amid inconsistent and contradictory Kremlin policies that disincentivize Russians who fled Russia and migrant workers from working in Russia while simultaneously trying to increase Russian industrial capacity and force generation.
Russian forces continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
The Russian Supreme Court ruled that certain Russian mobilized individuals have the right to serve in the Russian Alternative Civil Service (AKS) rather than on the front lines.
Russian occupation officials continue to establish programs aimed at indoctrinating Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine into Russian national and cultural identities.
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