re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

LOL

quote:

---

“We don’t understand what the benefit of joining BRICS is for Argentina." - incoming Argentina foreign minister Diana Mondino.

---

It's really great for America that Argentina is moving toward dollarization of their economy. And it's bad for our enemies.

ISW Update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather conditions.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian officials are struggling to subdue Russian hysteria around Ukrainian operations in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes overnight on November 20-21 and on November 21 targeting port and civilian infrastructure, including a hospital in Donetsk Oblast.

US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby reported on November 21 that the Wagner Group is preparing to provide an air defense system to either Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah or Iran.

Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s presidential campaign announcement has generated some discourse in the Russian information space, but most Russian milbloggers refrained from discussing Girkin’s campaign likely due to self-censorship.

Washington, D.C.-based analytics company Gallup found that Russian society’s confidence in the Russian military has marginally decreased in 2023.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new military aid package to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv on November 21.

The Armenian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied Russian allegations that Armenia is planning to supply Ukraine with weapons.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused the West of destabilizing the South Caucasus region by supplying weapons to Armenia.

A former Russian Investigative Committee departmental head who was serving sentences for accepting bribes from the Russian mafia died in prison on the night of November 20-21, allegedly by suicide.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 21 and advanced in some areas.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu addressed the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Collegium on November 21 and announced the that the Russian MoD is increasing its military training efforts across Russia.

US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller commented on November 20 about a report that found that Russian officials in collaborations with Belarusian officials transported more than 2,400 Ukrainian children between ages six and 17 to Belarus.

---

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
22 November 2023

In southern Ukraine, fighting has continued around the village of Krynky where Ukrainian marines maintain a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro River.

The ground fighting has been characterised by confused, dismounted infantry combat and artillery exchanges in complex, wooded terrain. Ukraine has made particularly effective use of small attack uncrewed aerial vehicles, while the Russian Air Force is conducting significant numbers of sorties in support of frontline troops, predominantly launching munitions from beyond the range of Ukraine's air defences.

The fighting around Krynky is on a smaller scale than some major battles of the war but will be considered highly unfortunate by Russian leaders. Russia withdrew from the west bank of the Dnipro River a year ago, almost certainly aiming to hold Ukrainian forces west of the river, keep the sector quiet, and free up Russian forces elsewhere.

LINK

quote:

---

As Moscow introduces a new modified glide version of cluster bomb to the hotspots of fighting in southern Ukraine, Kyiv's forces might be up against a more effective Russian air force in the depths of late fall and winter fighting.

On Sunday, a Russian Telegram account thought to be linked to Moscow's military shared what it said was footage of the first use of the modified RBK-500 cluster bomb in Ukraine's southern Donetsk region. The account did not provide any additional details, adding only that the strike took place around the Donetsk village of Staromayorske.

The reports were picked up among Russia's influential military bloggers over the weekend, U.S.-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said. The bloggers said Moscow's troops had carried out a "large airstrike" with RBK-500 cluster bombs that had been adapted to act as glide bombs.

The military bloggers said this strike near Staromayorske was "the first large Russian strike in Ukraine using this weapon with the glide bomb modification," the ISW said.

Both sides have used glide bombs; the Ukrainian military has been using the U.S. military's JDAMs, or Joint Direct Attack Munitions, or the longer-range JDAM-ERs, for most of 2023.

Russia is now using a "number of new types of glide bomb" resembling the JDAMs in Ukraine, military and weapons expert David Hambling told Newsweek. "Like the American equivalent, these appear to rely on satellite guidance and when launched at high altitude and speed can hit targets tens of miles away," he said.

---

videos in tweet

quote:

---

Video reportedly of Russian RBK-500 cluster bombs dropped near Starimaiors’ke

More videos of reported Russian RBK-500 cluster bombs from the Avdiivka front likely with UMPK glide kits.

---

Russians engage mechanised units near Avdiivka, losing 80% of equipment
OLEKSANDR SHUMILIN — Wednesday, 22 November 2023, 17:15

On Wednesday 22 November, Russian forces tried to advance near Avdiivka, using several mechanised convoys with armoured vehicles, but lost 80% of equipment.

Source: Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the joint press centre of the Defence Forces in the Tavriia front, on air during the national 24/7 joint newscast

Quote: "[Near Avdiivka], the invaders intensified both the use of aviation and sharply increased the number of their offensive actions – by about 25-30%... Today, they tried to advance with several mechanised convoys with armoured vehicles. About a dozen and a half [pieces of equipment – ed.]. But they lost almost 80% of the vehicles. Our guys destroyed them. The remnants of these convoys retreated and battles are still ongoing. The invaders do not abandon their attempts to encircle Avdiivka."

Ukrainska Pravda

Easy as letting an AIM-120 AMRAAM rip off the rail. All the F-16s being sent to Ukraine are older block 15 and 20 variants but they have all received their MLU (mid-life update) so they have more modern fire control, radar and avionics which basically makes them similar to the block 50 variant. What is really going to improve are the AGM-88 HARM’s performance. They managed to rig them to their Mig-29s but they can’t talk to the jet like they can being launched from the f-16. Their successful intercept rate will increase at a good clip.

All that sounds familiar. Stone must frequent the PT board.

ISW Update

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin reframed the Kremlin’s stance on the Israeli-Hamas war to a much more anti-Israel position in an attempt to demonstrate the supposed hypocrisy of Western condemnations of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Putin also reiterated boilerplate rhetoric falsely portraying Russia as willing to engage in meaningful negotiations, likely to pressure the West into prematurely pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.

US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby reported on November 21 that Iran is supplying Russia with glide bombs and that Iran may be preparing to transfer short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.

The Kremlin appears to be inexplicably concerned about the outcome of the upcoming March 2024 Russian presidential elections, despite apparent widespread Russian approval of Putin.

Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin called for Russia to codify an unspecified state ideology in the Russian constitution, suggesting that some Russian officials may want to explicitly end nominal constitutional protections for civil rights, democratic pluralism, and ethnic equality.

Bastrykin has yet to detail what a potential Russian state ideology should be, although the Kremlin’s support for Russian ultranationalism would likely heavily influence any potential Russian state ideology.

Bloomberg reported on November 21 that the European Union (EU) proposed a plan to strengthen security commitments from EU member states to Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 21 to 22.

Russian milbloggers appear to be focusing renewed complaints against the Russian military command for what milbloggers perceive as poor choices that contribute to Russian casualties.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, northwest of Horlivka, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and advanced east of Synkivka.

The Russian Federation Council approved the Russian 2024-2026 federal budget on November 22, and Russian officials continue to emphasize social spending over defense expenditures.

The Russian government and occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia under medical treatment schemes.

---

LINK

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
23 November 2023

On 14 November 2023, a select group of Wagner veterans were issued with official veteran identification documents. This marks the first time Wagner personnel have been officially recognised as veterans.

The Russian Ministry of Defence has established a new system allowing Wagner veterans to receive veteran identification documents and commensurate bonuses. The Wagner Group was recently subsumed into Russia's National Guard (Rosgvardia) command structure.

This highly likely signals the rehabilitation of some Wagner elements by the Russian administration. This follows a long period of uncertainty on how the administration would regard Wagner personnel in the wake of the Wagner Group's mutiny and abortive 'March for Justice' in June 2023.