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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/27/23 at 8:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 11/27/23 at 8:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:LINK
“[Beijing] understands really well their bargaining power and the country is in a much stronger position,” the source said.
“It’s a specific presidential-level of pressure. It’s about cheaper payment. They can demand deep discounts.”
The source also noted that Putin is under “enormous pressure” to build the pipeline or otherwise “a huge amount of gas” will be wasted and Russia will lose money.
“In terms of construction, [Beijing] wants to make sure that they have no risks and no costs. Russia is the side that foots the entire bill,” added the source, who was unwilling to disclose their name due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Russia getting bent over the barrel by China on their new gas pipeline.
2
Posted on 11/27/23 at 9:26 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Russia getting bent over the barrel by China on their new gas pipeline.
That pipeline has been proposed for well over a decade but no one has put up any money. It doesn't move natural gas from fields which supplied Europe but new fields discovered further east. That is the case unless it will be longer to connect further west but all those pipelines all go almost due west and connect in Y pattern to main lines going west.
That's a lot of merry go round with the necessary high dollar compressor stations. Note that Russia crashed its compressors for Nordstream by allowing hydrate formation in the feeder pipelines. It was like gravel hitting a fan, not exactly but close enough
Posted on 11/27/23 at 9:56 pm to CitizenK
Isw Uodate
quote:
Key Takeaways:
A cyclone in the Black Sea and southern Ukraine caused infrastructure damage in many areas of coastal southern Russia and occupied Ukraine and is impacting the tempo of military operations along the frontline in Ukraine, but has notably not stopped military activity entirely.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and several Russian milbloggers stated that Russia must maintain active operations in Ukraine and expressed worry over the prospect of further Western military support to Ukraine.
Some milbloggers additionally expressed increased discontent with the perceived lack of articulated Russian war aims and stated Russia must clarify its war aims before discussing any pause or end to the war.
Ukrainian National Defense and Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated that the Kremlin has activated a network of sleeper agents in Ukraine in the past few months to destabilize Ukrainian society.
Russia’s attempt to artificially create a migrant crisis at the Finnish border appears to be failing due to Finnish authorities’ swift response.
The Kremlin appears to be shifting responsibility for potential future austerity measures onto Russian occupation heads and the heads of four select Russian republics.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and did not make confirmed advances.
Deputy Commander of the Russian Navy Lieutenant General Viktor Astapov confirmed on November 27 that the Russian navy is reorganizing naval infantry brigades into divisions in order to increase their combat capabilities.
Likely Ukrainian partisans continue to target Russian occupation elements throughout occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:28 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
28 November 2023
In recent days, Russian forces have made further small advances on the northern axis of a pincer movement as part of their attempt to surround the Donbas town of Avdiivka.
Since the start of October 2023, Russian forces have moved the front line forwards up to 2km in this area. Although modest, this advance likely represents one of the greatest Russian gains since spring 2023. It has cost the units involved thousands of casualties.
This operation is gradually bringing Russian troops closer to the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical plant, where Ukrainian forces maintain one of their main defensive positions. Although Avdiivka has become a salient or bulge in the Ukrainian front line, Ukraine remains in control of a corridor of territory approximately 7km wide, through which it continues to supply the town.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
28 November 2023
In recent days, Russian forces have made further small advances on the northern axis of a pincer movement as part of their attempt to surround the Donbas town of Avdiivka.
Since the start of October 2023, Russian forces have moved the front line forwards up to 2km in this area. Although modest, this advance likely represents one of the greatest Russian gains since spring 2023. It has cost the units involved thousands of casualties.
This operation is gradually bringing Russian troops closer to the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical plant, where Ukrainian forces maintain one of their main defensive positions. Although Avdiivka has become a salient or bulge in the Ukrainian front line, Ukraine remains in control of a corridor of territory approximately 7km wide, through which it continues to supply the town.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 8:55 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I haven’t checked this thread for a few days. Chose to come and see if there’s any new developments. All I see is fighting and insults so I guess it’s still the same stalemate it’s been for months.
We could see some serious movement in the next few weeks after a massive winter storm damaged Russian defenses of Crimea. The Kerch bridge is as vulnerable as it's been in months. The Crimean beaches are as vulnerable as they've been in years.
That doesn't guarantee anything will happen, just something to keep in mind.
quote:
When will this thing ever end?!?
It could end sooner than you think. Let's see what happens with Ukraine/EU talks in December.
If Ukraine joins EU, the "non-alignment" portion of Russian peace talks is dead. Russia's only options then is to stop or attempt to wholly conquer an EU state, which would kill the EU entirely.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:14 am to WeeWee
quote:
Russia getting bent over the barrel by China on their new gas pipeline.
China getting cheap resources is definitely good for the world and the USA!
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:40 am to Turbeauxdog
Just like the US, China should just give Russia what it wants
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:43 am to RuLSU
It is hard to even imagine how miserable the troops in the field must be. It's cold, wet and dangerous. Fires and heating are likely very risky due to IR drones.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:44 am to RuLSU
Russia is wearing Ukraine down around Avdiivka. If they break out things are going to change dramatically. They are hammering that area and do not give a shite about losing men.
I have a feeling this will happen in the next week or two. If Ukraine holds them off then both sides will come to the negotiating table.
I have a feeling this will happen in the next week or two. If Ukraine holds them off then both sides will come to the negotiating table.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 11:57 am to CitizenK
quote:
That pipeline has been proposed for well over a decade but no one has put up any money. It doesn't move natural gas from fields which supplied Europe but new fields discovered further east. That is the case unless it will be longer to connect further west but all those pipelines all go almost due west and connect in Y pattern to main lines going west.
That was not exactly the point of the article or my post. My point was that we are starting to see evidence that Russia is becoming so economically dependent upon China that China can dictate terms to Russia. Russia's main hope for sustaining its economy long term is to replace exports to Europe with exports to China. China is dictating terms (i.e. demanding Russia foot the bill) for the construction of a project that would make it possible to do that. Russia likely does not have the cash to build the pipeline so they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:01 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
China getting cheap resources is definitely good for the world and the USA!
The cost to move through a several thousand mile long pipeline which doesn't even get it to industrial areas doesn't hurt the USA one bit.
Then there is Russia's constant problems internally with hydrates forming in their own pipelines. Friends who have been to Russia to work with their gas pipelines tell stories about heating lines with torches when hydrates plug them.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:05 pm to WeeWee
quote:
That was not exactly the point of the article or my post.
I got a year ago that Russia was already a vasal of China.
My reply was only to point out the cost of such a project and pricing of natural gas wasn't going to benefit anyone really. Otherwise the pipeline would have been built 15 years ago instead of China importing LNG from the USA, Qatar, Australia, etc...
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:05 pm to Turbeauxdog
quote:
Russia getting bent over the barrel by China on their new gas pipeline.
China getting cheap resources is definitely good for the world and the USA!
Actually it would be good for the world. If China has a steady energy source from Russia then it is less likely to cause a naval showdown (which is unlikely in the first place) in the South China Sea over the potential natural gas there.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:19 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
It is hard to even imagine how miserable the troops in the field must be. It's cold, wet and dangerous. Fires and heating are likely very risky due to IR drones.
My old roommate emailed me and asked me to go buy him some waders or hip boots and mail to him. I also sent him a heated vest and he said that it is a God send. He is an officer and has it better than the average grunt but it was still a God send. I would assume that the life for average grunt is down right miserable.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:25 pm to RuLSU
quote:
It could end sooner than you think. Let's see what happens with Ukraine/EU talks in December.
If Ukraine joins EU, the "non-alignment" portion of Russian peace talks is dead. Russia's only options then is to stop or attempt to wholly conquer an EU state, which would kill the EU entirely.
I think you are putting too much stock in the EU-Ukraine thing. IIRC, the EU and Ukraine are just starting the next round of talks about how Ukraine will possibly, maybe, eventually, be able to join the EU in the future. It will look good for the cameras that is about it. Nothing will actually happen.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 12:32 pm to WeeWee
I think that the plan right now is for Ukraine to fully join the EU in 2030 or something like that. Joining the EU is a long process.
Supporters of Ukraine should be happy to see progress on that front, but it's not going to make any immediate difference in the course of the war.
Supporters of Ukraine should be happy to see progress on that front, but it's not going to make any immediate difference in the course of the war.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 1:30 pm to Pfft
quote:
Russia is wearing Ukraine down around Avdiivka. If they break out things are going to change dramatically. They are hammering that area and do not give a shite about losing men.
I have a feeling this will happen in the next week or two. If Ukraine holds them off then both sides will come to the negotiating table.
No, I don't think Russia goes to the negotiating table just because they take/don't take Avdiivka.
But breakout? I heard the same thing about Bakhmut, and Russia hasn't gained ground since February.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 2:38 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
Just like the US, China should just give Russia what it wants
Huh?
Posted on 11/28/23 at 2:53 pm to WeeWee
quote:
I think you are putting too much stock in the EU-Ukraine thing. IIRC, the EU and Ukraine are just starting the next round of talks about how Ukraine will possibly, maybe, eventually, be able to join the EU in the future. It will look good for the cameras that is about it. Nothing will actually happen.
We'll see.
Posted on 11/28/23 at 5:36 pm to RuLSU
quote:
No, I don't think Russia goes to the negotiating table just because they take/don't take Avdiivka.
Just like Bakhmut, Avdiivka is an all out offensive to make a positive headline for Russia, losses and strategic importance be damned. Honestly Avdiivka is probably happening so Putin has some good news for the SMO going into the election
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