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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/4/23 at 4:54 pm to beerJeep
Posted on 10/4/23 at 4:54 pm to beerJeep
quote:
I eagerly await the lone parade t-34 to make its 21st century combat debut
Most of the boneyard T55's are being used to replace artillery which has been decimated via overuse/counter battery fire
1
Posted on 10/4/23 at 5:45 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Most of the boneyard T55's are being used to replace artillery which has been decimated via overuse/counter battery fire
Their weakness in that role is rather limited range usually less than 10 miles.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 6:18 pm to Darth_Vader
Initially it was just US aid drying up, but now you are saying all aid would dry up.
That’s a big difference.
That’s a big difference.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 6:44 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
the combined funding of dozens of nations, including the world's only superpower (us), just to keep them from overrunning Ukraine.
Lmao. Just admit you’re one of those clowns who thinks russia has a stronger military than us.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 6:57 pm to REG861
I think this is a decent summary from what I see as a decently neutral Twitter account
LINK
quote:
As we enter October, the rainy season is upon us and with it the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. During the last days the Ukrainian attacks have considerably decreased and despite the fact that resources are still being allocated to these fronts the Ukrainian military capabilities to achieve a considerable advance and reach, no longer the Sea of Azov, but the second main Russian line of defense, are not enough.
Gradually the focus of attention will shift from the south to the east where the #RussianArmy, as it did last year, is expected to resume offensive operations along this entire front, with the aim of controlling the rest of the Donbas outside its control.
One year after the annexation of these territories, the situation on the ground is still very different from the new maps. At present, the annexed oblasts are divided as follows:
- Luhansk:
UA: 330 sq Km (1,24%)
RuAF: 26354 sq Km (98,76%)
- Donetsk:
UA: 11217 sq Km (42,31 %)
RuAF: 15300 sq Km (57,69%)
- Zaporizhia:
UA: 6929 sq Km (25,49 %)
RuAF: 20254 sq Km (74,51%)
- Kherson:
UA: 7038 sq Km (24,73 %)
RuAF: 21423 sq Km (75,27%)
With this situation, Russia has not been able to take the territory it considers its own, even to this day the populations of the Donbas are still targeted by Ukrainian shelling. This has a negative impact on the image of Russia, which seems unable to achieve the objectives of the Special Military Operation. For reasons such as these the option of a major Russian offensive is more than necessary to turn the situation around and avoid a permanent freezing of the conflict.
In fact, the coming months would present an opportunity for the Russian side to initiate this offensive, as the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive will negatively affect the defensive capabilities of the #UkrainianArmy, which, in addition to facing quantitative losses during the battle of Bakhmut and the southern fronts, will also have to face a reduction in US military aid. Every day it seems clearer and clearer that Ukraine cannot win a long-term war, and even less so against a Russia that still retains large amounts of military resources, including those mobilized, a large part of which have not yet entered combat and are still being formed in the rear. In the coming months we may witness important changes in the course of a war that is approaching its second year.
LINK
Posted on 10/4/23 at 7:50 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW update
quote:
The Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, likely in an effort to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in occupied Crimea. Satellite imagery published on October 1 and 3 shows that Russian forces transferred at least 10 vessels from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.[1] The satellite imagery reportedly shows that Russian forces recently moved the Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen frigates, three diesel submarines, five landing ships, and several small missile ships
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced on October 4. Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks towards the rail line between Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), and the Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success near these settlements
Autumn and winter weather conditions will slow but not stop Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on October 3 that good weather will last for another six to eight weeks before weather will impact both Ukrainian and Russian operations.
The Kremlin is likely intensifying its use of tools of digital authoritarianism to increase domestic repression and tighten control of the information space. Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii reported on October 4 that the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office requested that Russian social media platform VKontakte (VK) begin blocking posts from relatives of mobilized servicemen calling for their loved ones to return home.[14] Vazhnye Istorii noted that VK is hiding posts with several hashtags pertaining to the treatment or return of mobilized servicemen and that several posts in group chats have reportedly disappeared.[15] The Prosecutor General is likely able to impose this form of censorship under the existing law that concerns “unreliable” information about Russian operations in Ukraine.[16] The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) additionally proposed a draft resolution on October 3 that would expand the list of personal and geolocation data that “organizers of information dissemination” (ORIs) are required to store and provide to law enforcement bodies upon request
CNN reported on October 4 that the US will transfer seized Iranian weapons and ammunition rounds to Ukraine.[21] CNN cited US officials saying that the US intends to transfer “thousands” of such weapons to alleviate some equipment shortages that Ukraine is facing. US Central Command (CENTCOM) noted that the US obtained the weapons through a Department of Justice civil forfeiture claim against the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on July 20, 2023, and that the US has already transferred one million rounds of small-arms ammunition to Ukraine as of Monday, October 2.
Russian sources continue to speculate about the current role of former Aerospace Forces (VKS) Commander and Wagner Group–affiliate Army General Sergei Surovikin after the Wagner rebellion, further highlighting his continued relevance in the Russian information space. Some Russian sources amplified footage on October 3 and 4 allegedly of Surovikin and his family outside a church near Moscow on October 3.[22] This speculation comes after prior speculation of Surovikin allegedly appearing in various African countries on behalf of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[23] Russian news outlet Novye Izvestia claimed that Surovikin denied to comment to journalists who approached him near the church.[24]
The European Union (EU) is reportedly preparing for negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession that will take place in December. Politico reported on October 4, citing three unnamed diplomats, that EU leaders are preparing to begin formal talks with Kyiv on Ukraine’s accession to the EU as early as December of this year.[25] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reported on October 4 that he and Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom spoke about Ukraine’s EU integration and are working bilaterally to opening talks about Ukraine’s accession by the end of the year
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Russian military recently transferred several Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessels from the port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea to the port in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, likely in an effort to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets in occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced on October 4.
Autumn and winter weather conditions will slow but not stop Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
The Kremlin is likely intensifying its use of tools of digital authoritarianism to increase domestic repression and tighten control of the information space.
CNN reported on October 4 that the US will transfer seized Iranian weapons and ammunition rounds to Ukraine.
Russian sources continue to speculate about the current role of former Aerospace Forces (VKS) Commander and Wagner Group-affiliate Army General Sergei Surovikin after the Wagner rebellion, further highlighting his continued relevance in the Russian information space.
The European Union (EU) is reportedly preparing for negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession that will take place in December.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made limited gains near Kreminna.
Russian authorities continue efforts to collect information about Russian citizens for future conscription and enlistment cycles.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin is reportedly heavily involved in Russian infrastructure projects in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 7:54 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
I think this is a decent summary from what I see as a decently neutral Twitter account
It's a pro-Russia, pro-Assad account. It's definitely not neutral and unbiased, but I do think that the account tries to be honest, which is why I follow it.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 7:57 pm to GOP_Tiger
Horseshoe theory in action:
Posted on 10/4/23 at 8:02 pm to REG861
quote:
the combined funding of dozens of nations, including the world's only superpower (us), just to keep them from overrunning Ukraine.
Lmao. Just admit you’re one of those clowns who thinks russia has a stronger military than us.
Actual Ukraine stopped the initial Russian blitz with relatively little outside aid. When the West saw the stiff resistance Ukraine was giving, they began ratcheting up the aid.
Russia’s offensive prowess had been lacking.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 8:19 pm
Posted on 10/4/23 at 8:34 pm to StormyMcMan
Recent month gains by Ukraine were small groups of infantry with supporting artillery. At least that it is what is seems to me.
Edit: At night using thermals which Russians seem to be lacking in
Edit: At night using thermals which Russians seem to be lacking in
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 8:36 pm
Posted on 10/5/23 at 4:20 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
05 October 2023
In recent days, Russia has been conducting civil defence exercises across much of the country, based on a scenario of large-scale international armed conflict.
These exercises have taken place annually since 2012 and coincide with Russian Civil Defence Day on 4 October. This year's exercises are unlikely to have been dramatically changed or expanded.
For generations, the USSR, and then Russia, has paid attention to domestic preparations for a major conflict. However, even with the ongoing war in Ukraine, it is unlikely Russia has significantly changed its posture of national preparedness in recent months.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
05 October 2023
In recent days, Russia has been conducting civil defence exercises across much of the country, based on a scenario of large-scale international armed conflict.
These exercises have taken place annually since 2012 and coincide with Russian Civil Defence Day on 4 October. This year's exercises are unlikely to have been dramatically changed or expanded.
For generations, the USSR, and then Russia, has paid attention to domestic preparations for a major conflict. However, even with the ongoing war in Ukraine, it is unlikely Russia has significantly changed its posture of national preparedness in recent months.
Posted on 10/5/23 at 4:35 am to RLDSC FAN
This has essentially turned into a QAnon thread.
Posted on 10/5/23 at 4:37 am to cypher
LINK
We were producing 12,000 per month at the beginning of the war.
quote:
Some additional clarity on the timeline for 155mm artillery ammo production from Doug Bush, US Army Assistant Secretary for Acquisition, Logistics & Technology.
80,000/month in early 2025
100,000/m towards the end of 2025
We were producing 12,000 per month at the beginning of the war.
Posted on 10/5/23 at 6:18 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
80,000/month in early 2025
Per Telegraph interview last week, it's 86,000 rounds by this time next year. They are already at 28,000 rounds per month just at the New Jersey plant. Another plant is close to opening in Texas, fully automated.
Posted on 10/5/23 at 8:15 am to CitizenK
Ukrainska Pravda in English
@pravda_eng
48 people were killed as a result of a Russian strike on a grocery store in the village of Hroza, Kupiansk district, Kharkiv Oblast. Among the dead is a 6-year-old boy.
Twitter - warning graphic
@pravda_eng
48 people were killed as a result of a Russian strike on a grocery store in the village of Hroza, Kupiansk district, Kharkiv Oblast. Among the dead is a 6-year-old boy.
Twitter - warning graphic
This post was edited on 10/5/23 at 8:16 am
Posted on 10/5/23 at 1:31 pm to cypher
quote:
max seddon
@maxseddon
Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.
Seems legit, definitely no further questions about that incident, we can all move on
Posted on 10/5/23 at 1:35 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.
Posted on 10/5/23 at 2:11 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.
Seems legit, definitely no further questions about that incident, we can all move on
Russians have the worst luck. They fall out of windows, they blow up factories with smoking accidents, they set off grenades mid-flight...
Putin must be blessed to avoid such bad luck!
Posted on 10/5/23 at 3:56 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Putin claims Prigozhin’s plane crashed because the Wagner leadership got drunk and/or high, then set off hand grenades during the flight.
Seems legit, definitely no further questions about that incident, we can all move on
I became the world's wealthiest person last night. Seems legit too
Posted on 10/5/23 at 8:44 pm to cypher
quote:
Ukrainska Pravda in English
@pravda_eng
48 people were killed as a result of a Russian strike on a grocery store in the village of Hroza, Kupiansk district, Kharkiv Oblast. Among the dead is a 6-year-old boy.
Lets review:
-The house has stopped funding and stopped the "transfer" of funds biden kept moving around
-The EU has 50 countries meeting now in Grenada Spain, and between tea and crumpet breaks announced they cannot make up the shortfall if the US delays (does this sound like a continent that is about to be overrun by Russia).
-The MIC will not tool up manufacturing to ramp up the production of archaic 155m shells without guarantees, hence the woeful supply being shipped at this point.
-Two weeks ago blinken visited ukraine and suddenly a market is bombed killing civilians......with a ukranian missile.
-Now while the west is on the brink of cutting off the spigot of money laundering.......Russia decides to bomb and kill a bunch of civilians.
Any 5 year old can see its just another slaughter by ukrainian money launderers to gain sympathy with the west. They are bombing their citizens in Donbass and Crimea, whats the difference in killing a few in ukraine eh.
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