- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/3/23 at 9:03 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 10/3/23 at 9:03 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu celebrated an odd group of Russian armed formations operating in the western Zaporizhia Oblast direction during a conference call with Russian military leadership.
Shoigu’s choice of units could indicate he seeks to highlight Russian commanders who continue to follow Russian military leadership’s orders for relentless counterattacks.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled its support for both Chechen units in Ukraine and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov amid a recent controversy surrounding interethnic tensions in the Russian government, military, and information space.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing to announce his (certain to win) presidential campaign in November 2023, and reportedly intends to discuss the war in Ukraine as little as is necessary in political messaging.
A Reuters report published on October 3 stated that Russian forces have embedded “Storm-Z” units within conventional Russian units to conduct costly counterattacks against Ukrainian gains in key sectors of the front.
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 3.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 2 to 3.
The Armenian Parliament ratified the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Rome Statute on October 3.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly investigating Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit, likely in an attempt to remove government officials with connections to deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka revealed that almost half of all occupation officials of the senior and middle management levels in occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts are from Russia.
1
Posted on 10/4/23 at 4:41 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 04 October 2023
On 28 September 2023, Russian air defence forces highly likely shot down one of their own Su-35S FLANKER M multi-role combat jets over Tokmak, approximately 20km behind the current front line.
Although Russia has lost around 90 fixed wing aircraft since the start of the invasion, this is probably only the fifth loss of a Su-35S, Russia's most advanced combat jet in widespread service. The location is relevant because Tokmak is a heavily fortified town which often hosts Russian headquarters commanding one of the most intensely contested sectors of the front line.
These headquarters would typically be protected with dedicated short and medium range air defence systems. These are almost certainly held at very high readiness, as Ukraine continues to conduct effective deep strikes against such locations.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 04 October 2023
On 28 September 2023, Russian air defence forces highly likely shot down one of their own Su-35S FLANKER M multi-role combat jets over Tokmak, approximately 20km behind the current front line.
Although Russia has lost around 90 fixed wing aircraft since the start of the invasion, this is probably only the fifth loss of a Su-35S, Russia's most advanced combat jet in widespread service. The location is relevant because Tokmak is a heavily fortified town which often hosts Russian headquarters commanding one of the most intensely contested sectors of the front line.
These headquarters would typically be protected with dedicated short and medium range air defence systems. These are almost certainly held at very high readiness, as Ukraine continues to conduct effective deep strikes against such locations.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 9:09 am to cypher
Trying to get caught up here..
But can someone tell me what Putin's end game is? What accomplishment would end this war on the Russian side?
But can someone tell me what Putin's end game is? What accomplishment would end this war on the Russian side?
Posted on 10/4/23 at 10:31 am to Kingpenm3
quote:
But can someone tell me what Putin's end game is? What accomplishment would end this war on the Russian side?
Taking most of if not all of Ukraine. Driving a wedge between NATO nations.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 1:33 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
That remains to be seen. But, at least for now, Ukraine has the momentum.
What happens if US support dries up? I imagine Ukraine shifting gears from offensive to defensive at that point.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 1:55 pm to pirate75
quote:
US support dries up
We can only hope
Posted on 10/4/23 at 1:59 pm to pirate75
quote:
What happens if US support dries up? I imagine Ukraine shifting gears from offensive to defensive at that point.
If that were to happen, I don’t think Ukraine could sustain the war for long. They’d be forced to sue for peace pretty quickly. Ukraine has the will, they have the bodies, what they lack is the hardware and the logistics to support the hardware.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:14 pm to pirate75
quote:
What happens if US support dries up? I imagine Ukraine shifting gears from offensive to defensive at that point.
They would lose all momentum.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:15 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
If that were to happen, I don’t think Ukraine could sustain the war for long. They’d be forced to sue for peace pretty quickly. Ukraine has the will, they have the bodies, what they lack is the hardware and the logistics to support the hardware.
Do you think they would surrender that easily? I do not.
Do you think Europe would pull the plug?
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:23 pm to pirate75
quote:
What happens if US support dries up?
China invades Taiwan about two weeks thereafter.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:24 pm to pirate75
quote:
What happens if US support dries up?
Peace.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:26 pm to TBoy
quote:
China invades Taiwan about two weeks thereafter.
You think we're somehow in a position to stop this right now?Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:31 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
What happens if US support dries up?
quote:
Peace.
We would be back to 2014 - 2022.... a slower war. Russia doesnt have the ability to overrun Ukraine, and Ukraine wont have the ability to sustain an offense and would have to conserve western munitions/EQ
but the fight would just drag on for quite a while....
remember Ukraine and Russia have been at this since 2014, it only ramped up in 2022, and Ukraine stopped the advance on Kviv without Western aide for the most part. Drones are cheap.... we would see defense with drone attacks for years.... Ukraine is not giving up territory and russia has no reason to leave
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:35 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
Russia doesnt have the ability to overrun Ukraine
If they didn't, this wouldn't still be going on. It's taken the combined funding of dozens of nations, including the world's only superpower (us), just to keep them from overrunning Ukraine.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:36 pm to Kingpenm3
quote:
But can someone tell me what Putin's end game is? What accomplishment would end this war on the Russian side?
Two different questions; the end game is not in Ukraine. Ukraine is one of about six outstanding issues that this was intended to be another step in correcting.
At this point, consolidation and stabilization of the frontier with either no Ukraine, or a rump state headed by a replacement, semi-friendly/non-super hostile puppet government would be end of war goal for the Russian Federation now.
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:46 pm to doubleb
quote:
Do you think they would surrender that easily? I do not.
It’s not a matter of “surrendering easily”. If Western Aid was to stop, the leadership in Ukraine would quickly see they would need to sue for peace on as favorable terms as possible because the longer they delayed the more the war would favor Russia. Basically at that point Ukraine would have two choices:
1. Sue for peace while they still had at least the prospect of somewhat favorable terms.
2. Continue the war with diminishing stocks of ammo and weapons systems for no strategic gain. If they opted for this, their armed forces would eventually, probably in a matter of weeks or a few months, no longer be able to hold out. It would be a situation very similar to South Vietnam in 1975 when North Vietnam invaded after the US cut off all aid. They’d put up a fight but would collapse due to lack of functional weapons and ammo.
The leadership in Ukraine would have to be breathtakingly stupid to choose option two. They’d choose option one. That’s why I said if Westen aid were cut off, Ukraine would sue for peace.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 10/4/23 at 2:48 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
If that were to happen, I don’t think Ukraine could sustain the war for long. They’d be forced to sue for peace pretty quickly. Ukraine has the will, they have the bodies, what they lack is the hardware and the logistics to support the hardware.
There has been a noticeable shift in Russian propaganda efforts, at least from what I have seen in recent months, with them taking aim at AFU morale through various surrender campaigns on a far greater scale.
This has coincided with a ramping up in the dissemination of footage claimed as strikes on AFU personnel doing evacs or clearing trenches, and deeper strikes on logistic networks.
This may be because Russia believes they have sufficiently muddied the water along with the current slow roll counter offensive that Ukraine has maintained so that Western support is slowing and they can now focus on Ukraine's will.
At the moment however I am looking at it from the opposite angle. With a worsening economy, Russia is struggling to keep things afloat in an increasing number of areas and they are facing a protracted conflict.
It is likely they will not have the capacity to maintain the levels of combat they have sustained thus far in the near future without significant internal pressures increasing so they are shifting to targeting Ukrainian will as it is the surest way to end the conflict sooner rather than later if successful which would go a long way to abating these pressures.
Edit:
Having just caught up on the ousting on McCarthy as speaker, what are your opinions on the effect this will have on the war in terms of U.S. commitment and its ability to send further aid in the short term?
Given that one of the main narratives for Russia is that a Biden led U.S. is using Ukraine to fight a proxy war it seems at odds that McCarthy who seemed relatively committed to helping Ukraine was ousted by the Democratic party plus some intransigent Republicans. - Not looking to make this political just interested in getting insight.
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 10/4/23 at 4:20 pm to imjustafatkid
also happens if Russia just fricks off
also happens if Ukraine decides they don’t want to fight
which is the most morally correct outcome?
also happens if Ukraine decides they don’t want to fight
which is the most morally correct outcome?
Posted on 10/4/23 at 4:35 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
And now the Russians are scrounging though their boneyards to cobble together a fleet of these museum pieces to send to the front as cannon fodder.
I eagerly await the lone parade t-34 to make its 21st century combat debut
Posted on 10/4/23 at 4:52 pm to beerJeep
Oct. 4, 2023 2:36 pm ET
Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks
Pullout represents painful setback for the Kremlin, which seized Crimea in 2014
Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from its main base in occupied Crimea, a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.
Russia has moved powerful vessels including three attack submarines and two frigates from Sevastopol to other ports in Russia and Crimea that offer better protection, according to Western officials and satellite images verified by naval experts. The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The move represents a remarkable setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose military seizure of Crimea in 2014 marked the opening shots in his attempt to take control of Ukraine. His full-scale invasion of last year has now boomeranged, forcing the removal of ships from a port that was first claimed by Russia in 1783 under Catherine the Great.
WSJ Archive No Paywall
Russia Withdraws Black Sea Fleet Vessels From Crimea Base After Ukrainian Attacks
Pullout represents painful setback for the Kremlin, which seized Crimea in 2014
Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from its main base in occupied Crimea, a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.
Russia has moved powerful vessels including three attack submarines and two frigates from Sevastopol to other ports in Russia and Crimea that offer better protection, according to Western officials and satellite images verified by naval experts. The Russian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The move represents a remarkable setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose military seizure of Crimea in 2014 marked the opening shots in his attempt to take control of Ukraine. His full-scale invasion of last year has now boomeranged, forcing the removal of ships from a port that was first claimed by Russia in 1783 under Catherine the Great.
WSJ Archive No Paywall
This post was edited on 10/4/23 at 4:54 pm
Page 3287 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News