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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/3/23 at 4:52 am to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 10/3/23 at 4:52 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
You’re so simple
Lol. You are worse than Baghdad Bob with the straight propaganda you spew. You don’t have any real answers other than to look to the past and hope it will magically reappear. Again, I’d rather take millions of immigrants than to have some neoconfederate moron who talks like a retarded Matlock.
Again, has anything you predicted the last few years come true?
1
Posted on 10/3/23 at 6:55 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
The Kremlin is compiling a list of proxies for the presidential election in Russia. Putin intends to run for office.
RBC writes about this, citing sources in three Russian regions. Vladimir Putin's proxies must meet several criteria: publicly support the war in Ukraine and the Russian president, have a high level of recognition and trust, and they must have a low anti-Russian rating among their audience.
Their main task is to "increase the level of support for the candidate and under no circumstances allow it to decrease," the publication's sources said. According to Russian media reports, Putin may announce his candidacy for another presidential term in November at the "Russia Forum".
LINK
quote:
1/2
An important point by @shashj here.
While Ukraine has achieved a lot with limited resources and BLKFLT has lost the initiative and is, except for cruise missile strikes, mostly reacting to Ukrainian actions, they aren't defeated.
2/2
While some traffic to the Odessa area has resumed, volumes transported is still low and incidents or deliberate Russian actions could halt traffic again.
BLKFLT anti-surface capabilities remains significant but it is currently withheld at the political level.
Addendum:
While recent Storm Shadow strikes have demonstrated the vulnerability of Sevastopol, there has so far been no follow-up strikes on what is the critical vulnerability of the Black Sea Fleet:
The maintenance infrastructure there.
LINK
quote:
The US Army is ready to quickly send ATACMS to Ukraine after Biden's approval
"We are ready to act quickly," said Assistant Secretary of the US Army for Procurement Doug Bush, noting that the US Army is prepared for such a development.
LINK
quote:
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, Tobias Billström, could not come to the unprecedented meeting of EU foreign ministers in Kyiv on Monday, because he forgot his passport.
This was reported by the Austrian publication Die Presse with reference to diplomatic sources.
LINK
quote:
Putin is looking for ways to end U.S. and European support for Ukraine
American officials are convinced that Putin will try to cut off U.S. and European support for Ukraine by using his intelligence services to spread propaganda for pro-Russian political parties and fuel conspiracy theories with new technology.
Putin believes he can influence U.S. policy to weaken support for Ukraine and potentially regain his advantage on the battlefield.
?? The New York Times
LINK
quote:
Russian sources are reporting an expected resuming of large offensive operations by Ukrainian forces within the next 2 weeks on several directions of attack on the southern frontline.
LINK
quote:
There is no need for additional mobilization, the army has the necessary number of servicemen to carry out the "military operation," Shoigu said.
LINK
quote:
Dmitry Peskov - on Yerevan's ratification of the Rome Statute: "We have additional questions to the current leadership of Armenia, it is an incorrect decision."
In response to Armenia signing onto the International Criminal Court
Posted on 10/3/23 at 10:29 am to cypher
quote:
The "Drone Army" units reportedly hit a total of 220 pieces of Russian military equipment in the past week, including 33 tanks, 41 trucks, and 37 armored fighting vehicles.
Ukraine's "Drone Army" is a joint initiative of the Digital Transformation Ministry and the governmental UNITED24 fundraising platform. It was launched in July 2022.
A bunch of cheap drones taking out a lot of expensive equipment and mapping the battlefield has seriously changed the nature of warfare.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:29 am to Auburn1968
quote:
A bunch of cheap drones taking out a lot of expensive equipment and mapping the battlefield has seriously changed the nature of warfare.
Yes.
It makes it harder for heavy weapons to move around, which makes static defenses more valuable. I think this is why Ukraine has struggled so much to advance in the south.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:33 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
American officials are convinced that Putin will try to cut off U.S. and European support for Ukraine by using his intelligence services to spread propaganda for pro-Russian political parties and fuel conspiracy theories with new technology. Putin believes he can influence U.S. policy to weaken support for Ukraine and potentially regain his advantage on the battlefield.
He's certainly having success on the political board.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:39 am to Auburn1968
quote:
A bunch of cheap drones taking out a lot of expensive equipment and mapping the battlefield has seriously changed the nature of warfare.
The latest numbers provided by Ukraine weekly reports indicate that 82% of the Russian tanks destroyed and 40% of the artillery destroyed was due to drones. I used the overall and drone reports to come up with these numbers.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:39 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
A bunch of cheap drones taking out a lot of expensive equipment and mapping the battlefield has seriously changed the nature of warfare.
Mines in the ground. Mines in the sky. Makes driving anything anywhere pretty impossible.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 4:42 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
He's certainly having success on the political board.
It'll be interesting to see whether the "Pro-Putin" propaganda gets stronger/weaker over the next 3-4 months.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 4:47 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:straight out of the gee jee ping play book
American officials are convinced that Putin will try to cut off U.S. and European support for Ukraine by using his intelligence services to spread propaganda for pro-Russian political parties and fuel conspiracy theories with new technology. Putin believes he can influence U.S. policy to weaken support for Ukraine and potentially regain his advantage on the battlefield.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 7:11 pm to RuLSU
The West is much like Pre WWII, while Russia is much like Germany during the first stages of WWII
Posted on 10/3/23 at 7:29 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Mines in the ground. Mines in the sky. Makes driving anything anywhere pretty impossible.
Necessity is the mother of invention. Ukraine is collecting Russian mines by hand and by drones and putting them on drone bombers to return to the Russians.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 7:30 pm to SuperSaint
quote:
The head of the Russian occupation administration of Zaporizhia, Yevgeny Balitsky, said that Russia’s goal is to occupy not only Ukraine, but also the Baltic countries, Poland and Finland. Because these states are "the historical lands of Russia".
LINK
Posted on 10/3/23 at 7:32 pm to cypher
The NYT concedes that the Ukraine counteroffensive was a horrific failure.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 7:37 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
American officials are convinced that Putin will try to cut off U.S. and European support for Ukraine by using his intelligence services to spread propaganda for pro-Russian political parties and fuel conspiracy theories with new technology. Putin believes he can influence U.S. policy to weaken support for Ukraine and potentially regain his advantage on the battlefield.
The US funded a failed counteroffensive and it is abundantly clear that Ukraine cannot win this war. Continued US involvement will be more money flushed away for years to come.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 7:41 pm to Stidham8
We already know this. HOWEVER, geographical position is everything, and Russia is gradually losing that
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:10 pm to CitizenK
The Politards say Yassir Boss to every Russian bot request
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:23 pm to Stidham8
quote:
The NYT concedes that the Ukraine counteroffensive was a horrific failure.
You read poorly.
But anyway, everyone agrees that Ukraine's goal was to take back the "land bridge" this year, and that's not going to happen. But Ukraine also has preserved almost all of the western equipment it was given. If they can keep the pressure on Russian troops this winter and prevent another great mine buildup, they will be in good shape to continue their push with M1s, F-16s, GLSDB, and ATACMS giving them an additional edge. And while Ukraine continually obtains more advanced tech, Russia keeps scraping the rust off of older and older equipment.
Here's a case in point that I just saw a few minutes ago. LINK
quote:
This looks like potentially the first published footage of the ground-launched ASRAAM surface-to-air missile system that the UK provided to Ukraine.
ASRAAM is a short-ranged infrared guided air-to-air missile adapted to be fired in pairs from a Supacat HMT chassis by MBDA.
Since this ground-to-air missile will outrange the ATGMs on Russian Ka-52s, it will likely inhibit Ka-52 use along the front lines.
And any comprehensive assessment of "the counteroffensive" has to include Ukraine's reopening the port of Odessa to shipping, the serious attacks on Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet, and Ukraine's increasing ability to attack deep into Russia with drones. An honest appraisement of the strategic balance shows it shifting towards Ukraine.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
And while Ukraine continually obtains more advanced tech, Russia keeps scraping the rust off of older and older equipment.
I saw video the other day of a Soviet era T-55 with one of those anti-Javelin cages the Russians have pulled from storage.
If anyone is wondering, the first prototype T-55, called T-54 at the time, was completed just months after the end of WWII and entered service a full year before the Soviets detonated their first atomic bomb in 1949.
And now the Russians are scrounging though their boneyards to cobble together a fleet of these museum pieces to send to the front as cannon fodder.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
And any comprehensive assessment of "the counteroffensive" has to include Ukraine's reopening the port of Odessa to shipping, the serious attacks on Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet, and Ukraine's increasing ability to attack deep into Russia with drones. An honest appraisement of the strategic balance shows it shifting towards Ukraine.
I think, or at least hope, my participation in this thread up to now has illustrated my commitment to neither side and only to objectively judging the war based on my own military experience and decades of study of military strategy and history. I have no emotional attachment to either side in this war.
Having said that, I agree with you; the momentum in the war indeed appears to have shifted to the Ukrainians. It’s not enough to ensure victory, or really even success in their now months long offensive. Nor does it mean the momentum cannot swing back in favor of the Russians. But for now, it definitely favors Ukraine. They haven’t broken the overall stalemate yet though. The main question now is (1) can Ukraine maintain this momentum and (2) can the Ukrainians exploit it to the degree necessary to force Russia to come to terms favorable to Ukraine?
That remains to be seen. But, at least for now, Ukraine has the momentum.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 9:03 pm to Darth_Vader
ISW
quote:
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu celebrated an odd group of Russian armed formations operating in the western Zaporizhia Oblast direction during a conference call with Russian military leadership. Shoigu’s choice of units could indicate he seeks to highlight Russian commanders who continue to follow Russian military leadership’s orders for relentless counterattacks. Shoigu attributed successful Russian defensive operations around Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv) to elements of the Russian 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District), 56th Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division), 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet), and the 291st Guards Artillery Brigade (58th CAA, SMD) during a Russian military command meeting on October 3.[1] Shoigu did not highlight other formations that are routinely credited for maintaining the Robotyne-Verbove line such as the 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) or the 247th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division).[2]
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has routinely deliberately snubbed or amplified the achievements of certain commanders in order to achieve Shoigu or the Russian military command’s political objectives.[3] While it is possible that Shoigu simply wanted to celebrate only a few formations, Shoigu may have highlighted some of these formations for political reasons.
The Russian MoD signaled its support for Chechen units fighting in Ukraine amid a recent controversy surrounding interethnic tensions in the Russian government, military, and information space. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu personally thanked Chechen Head Ramzan Kadyrov for overseeing the formation of three motorized rifle regiments and three motorized rifle battalions in Chechnya during a conference with Russian military leadership on October 3.[12] Shoigu claimed that these Chechen units have “proven themselves worthy” in the war in Ukraine and that over 14,500 Russian military personnel have undergone training at the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes, Chechnya, before deploying to Ukraine. Kadyrov claimed on October 2 that over 30,000 Chechens have deployed to Ukraine, including over 14,000 volunteers.[13] Shoigu’s public praise of Kadyrov and Chechen units indicates the Russian MoD’s support for these units amid growing interethnic tension, as well as in the context of recent controversy in the Russian information space over statements by the Chairperson of the “Patriots of Russia” political party and the State Duma Committee of Nationalities Gennady Semigin about the superiority of Chechen “Akhmat” forces over regular Russian forces.[14]
The Kremlin also publicly indicated its support for Kadyrov’s style of rule in Chechnya following significant public outcry against Kadyrov and his son. Kadyrov stated on October 2 that he supported a proposal by Chechen Republic Prime Minister Muslim Khuchiev to appoint Kadyrov’s 24-year-old daughter, current Chechen Minister of Culture Aishat Kadyrova, as Deputy Prime Minister for Social Issues.[15] Kadyrov further stated on October 3 that he presented Kadyrova with the People’s Artist of Chechnya award and a Second Class Civilian Medal of the Order “For Merit to the Fatherland,” which Russian President Vladimir Putin conferred on Kadyrova in September.[16] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to questions about Kadyrova’s appointment, stating that regional appointments are at the “prerogative of the head of the region” and that “Kadyrov is using his prerogative.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing to announce his (certain to win) presidential campaign in November 2023, and reportedly intends to discuss the war in Ukraine as little as is necessary in political messaging. Russian outlet Kommersant reported on October 3 that sources close to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that Putin may announce his campaign during or shortly after the opening of the “Rossiya” international exhibition and forum on November 4.
A Reuters report published on October 3 stated that Russian forces have embedded “Storm-Z” units within conventional Russian units to conduct costly counterattacks against Ukrainian gains in key sectors of the front. Reuters reported that the Storm-Z units are composed of 100-150 personnel, including both civilian penal recruits and Russian soldiers under punishment, are embedded within conventional Russian military units, and deploy to the most exposed parts of the front.[22] Reuters estimated that Russia has currently deployed at least several hundred personnel to the front line in various “Storm-Z” units. Reuters interviewed multiple Russian soldiers, including fighters in “Storm-Z” units, which the Russian military command reportedly views as lesser than conventional military units. The Russian soldiers told Reuters that the Russian military command sends Russian soldiers to serve in the “Storm-Z” units after they commit acts of disobedience, including insubordination or drinking alcohol. Reuters reported that the Storm-Z units have sustained heavy losses, and one soldier embedded in the 237th Guards Air Assault Regiment (76th Airborne [VDV] Division) reportedly stated that his “Storm-Z” unit of 120 personnel lost all but 15 personnel while fighting near Bakhmut in June 2023. The Russian MoD has never formally confirmed the existence of the “Storm-Z” units, and ISW first reported on the existence of these “Storm-Z” units in April 2023.[23]
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction and offensive actions in the Bakhmut direction.[24] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km south of Bakhmut) south of Bakhmut and on the Kopani-Robotyne-Verbove line (11-18km southwest to southeast of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[25]
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 2 to 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 3 that Ukrainian air defenses downed 29 of 31 Shahed drones and one Iskander-M cruise missile targeting Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[26] Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed that Russian forces struck an industrial enterprise near Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[27]
The Armenian Parliament ratified the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Rome Statute on October 3.[28] Armenia joins six other former Soviet countries in ratifying the Rome Statute: Georgia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Republic of Moldova, and Tajikistan.[29] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called Armenia’s decision to ratify the Rome Statue an “incorrect step” from the perspective of Russo-Armenian relations.
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