re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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also assume the war will be over before they arrive, but we’ll see I guess

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I am absolutely fascinated by this take. Please elaborate. Who do you think will win, and under what terms, and on what timeline?

You’re correct but not for the reasons you think.

When F16s start blowing Russian strategic assets out of the air when they try to launch missiles on Kyivv next year, you’re going to see Russias appetite for this war diminish.

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I also assume the war will be over before they arrive, but we’ll see I guess.

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You are hopelessly naïve.

ISW Update

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Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported that the Russian military deployed elements of a newly created “reserve army” (the 25th CAA) to enable units currently on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast to laterally redeploy to defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. Budanov stated on August 31 that the Russian military deployed elements of the newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army (reportedly formed under the Eastern Military District) to replace elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (Central Military District) in the Kupyansk direction, and that these elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army (CAA) began a “slow” redeployment to an unspecified area in southern Ukraine.

The 25th Combined Arms Army is unlikely to be combat effective at scale given its rushed deployment, ahead of a previously reported intended deployment date of December 2023. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) formed a “reserve army” at the end of June, likely referencing the 25th CAA, which began recruiting personnel from the Russian Far East in mid-May

The Russian command likely views the deployment of a combat ineffective formation to Luhansk Oblast as a tolerable risk given the relatively lower tempo of operations along much of the Luhansk Oblast frontline

Additional Russian lateral redeployments and the immediate commitment of intended operational reserves suggest that short term reinforcement needs are impeding intended long-term reconstitution efforts. The redeployment of elements of the 41st CAA to southern Ukraine is the third major Russian lateral redeployment since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June and the second in recent weeks

Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky continues to highlight the impact of the lack of Russian counter-battery capabilities on Russian morale in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Khodakovsky claimed on September 1 that Russian forces continue to suffer from a lack of counter-battery capabilities in the Novomayorske-Novodonetske-Kermenchyk area (12km to 18km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), where Khodakovsky and the “Vostok” Battalion are reportedly defending

Khodakovsky has previously highlighted similar concerns about the Russian defense in this area, although his recent comments are more negative and defeatist in tone

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made some advances on September 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut, and geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced northwest of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).

Politico confirmed previously-reported numbers of refurbished US Abrams tanks set to arrive in Ukraine by mid-September. Politico confirmed that Ukraine will receive the first 10 of the 31 promised refurbished US Abrams tanks by mid-September following refurbishment in Germany, citing a US Department of Defense official and another source

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov is reportedly visiting multiple African countries as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD’s) continued effort to assume control over the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Yevkurov is conducting a tour of various African countries including Burkina Faso and recently visited Libya and Syria in an attempt to replace “private military companies” (PMCs) with Russian MoD-controlled formations.

A Russian public opinion poll indicates that there is likely little to no societal discontent around the Wagner Group or its financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, and the true cause of the plane crash will have little impact on both Russian perceptions and the future of the Wagner Group. Independent Russian polling organization Levada Center found that roughly equivalent percentages of Russians believe that either Prigozhin’s death was accidental; Russian authorities intentionally orchestrated Prigozhin’s death; Prigozhin is still alive; or the cause of Prigozhin’s death is difficult to determine

A fringe Russian milblogger arrested on August 31 for allegedly discrediting the Russian military reportedly pled guilty on September 1.[34] Russian state media outlet TASS reported that Andrey Kurshin, administrator of the “Moscow Calling” Telegram channel, pled guilty to charges for knowingly disseminating false information about the Russian military and faces up to 10 years in prison

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported that the Russian military deployed elements of a newly created “reserve army” (the 25th CAA) to enable units currently on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast to laterally redeploy to defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.

The 25th Combined Arms Army is unlikely to be combat effective at scale given its rushed deployment, ahead of a previously reported intended deployment date of December 2023.

Additional Russian lateral redeployments and the immediate commitment of intended operational reserves suggest that short term reinforcement needs are impeding intended long-term reconstitution efforts.

Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky continues to highlight the impact of the lack of Russian counter-battery capabilities on Russian morale in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made some advances on September 1.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed gains.

Russian occupation officials announced on September 1 that voting began for the Russian regional elections held in occupied Ukraine and will continue in various forms through September 10.

Russian officials continue efforts to forcibly indoctrinate Ukrainian youth into Russian culture and identity by integrating schools in occupied Ukraine into the Russian educational system.

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Useful Twitter thread detailing the fate of each destroyed Bradley, with photos:

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The United States supplied 186 M2A2 ODS-SA to Ukraine, 26 of these vehicles were destroyed so far, which would be 13% of the fleet.

today I'm going to show you these vehicles.

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Of course, besides these "destroyed" M2A2s, other Bradleys have been "damaged" and recovered, and a few of them have likely been damaged beyond repair.

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That’s just going to get even worse when F-16s can stand back and launch an AIM-120 up their arse.

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An F-16 would be forced to fly very low to avoid Russian air defense systems, they’ll also be flying much slower. This will sharply limit the range of the AMRAAMs.

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You’re missing the point of the AMRAAM.

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I also assume the war will be over before they arrive, but we’ll see I guess.

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There is no indication the war will soon end. Barring an unforeseen (and unlikely) development such as Western aid being cut off from Ukraine or a coup in Russia, there really is no end in sight.

For the longest time, I thought that Ukraine would try to make the Velyka Novosilka to Staromlynivka axis the "main" axis, as the 47th struggled to the west near Robotyne.

Instead, Ukraine decided to reinforce the 47th and make it the area of the big push.

So, it certainly does not appear that Ukraine is going to try to break the Russian defensive line south of Staromlynivka before the mud season arrives.

Nevertheless, advancing and actually taking Staromlynivka is still very important, as the town is the Russian logistical hub for that area and has very valuable roads going east, southeast (towards Mariupol), and south-southwest (towards Berdyansk). Ukraine needs the town to make it its own logistical hub for that sector of the front, and taking it would put Mariupol very firmly in HIMARS range, which would further hamper Russian logistics.

But since taking Urozhaine a couple of weeks ago, Ukraine hasn't made any progress in this sector, as Russia has engaged in a number of counterattacks.

Although these counterattacks have failed, at some cost to Russia, I think that Russia sees political value in slowing Ukrainian progress, as Russia's immediate military goals might take a backseat to the goal of persuading Congress that the Ukrainian offensive is a failure and that further expenditure would be wasteful.

In any case, today, we are finally getting the first reports that Ukraine is advancing and has entered Zavitne Bazhannya, probably from the western side of the Mokri Yaly river (from Staromairske, in other words).

Cool looking gun. The thermal view in the video looked extremely low resolution, I wonder if it'll be plinking birds in addition to drones.

I mean Prigozhin may very well have been passing info to Ukraine, but it's also in Ukraine's best interest to muddy the waters and keep Russia wondering whether it's true or not.

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Here's some food for thought. Yesterday, journalist Maria Drutska interviewed the head of Ukrainian Intelligence (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov. Among other points made, Budanov stated that he would "speak about the relationship between [the Ukrainian] GUR and Prigozhin after the war."

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Wagner killed tens of thousands of AFU soldiers but sure...he was a GUR asset.