- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/3/23 at 8:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
My apologies. This is indeed the same video that you already posted.
None needed, I was just responding the biased fellow.
I've had a busy day and also, have certainly had my share of links previously posted.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 6:16 am to CitizenK
Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
04 September 2023
On 31 August 2023, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), alongside international partners, published a report on a malware campaign targeting Android mobile devices used by the Ukrainian military.
The malware, referred to as 'Infamous Chisel', has been used by the Russian cyber threat group known as Sandworm. NCSC has previously attributed Sandworm to the Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate's (GRU) Main Centre for Special Technologies (GTSST).
Infamous Chisel enables persistent access to, and the collation and exfiltration of data from, compromised Android devices. This includes targeting applications used by the Ukrainian military.
Infamous Chisel has highly likely been used with the aim of stealing sensitive military information. This activity demonstrates Russia's continued use of cyber capabilities to support the invasion of Ukraine.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
04 September 2023
On 31 August 2023, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), alongside international partners, published a report on a malware campaign targeting Android mobile devices used by the Ukrainian military.
The malware, referred to as 'Infamous Chisel', has been used by the Russian cyber threat group known as Sandworm. NCSC has previously attributed Sandworm to the Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate's (GRU) Main Centre for Special Technologies (GTSST).
Infamous Chisel enables persistent access to, and the collation and exfiltration of data from, compromised Android devices. This includes targeting applications used by the Ukrainian military.
Infamous Chisel has highly likely been used with the aim of stealing sensitive military information. This activity demonstrates Russia's continued use of cyber capabilities to support the invasion of Ukraine.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 7:45 am to cypher
I wanted to discuss the fun subject of US military aid to Ukraine (I'm sure that this will be a polite and thoughtful discussion), as a lot hangs in the balance over the next few weeks.
At the end of this month, the opportunity for several types of aid to Ukraine are currently scheduled to expire.
For example, the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the Biden administration to send equipment from current US stocks, expires on the 30th. There's about $2 billion left that he could send from that authorization.
I think that the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative still has almost $6 billion left in it, and I don't think that money expires at the end of the month. This is for new contracts of US manufacturers to make equipment for Ukraine. Some of the biggest expenditures have been for HIMARS launchers and NASAMS systems.
The Lend-Lease authority also expires at the end of the month. This would allow the administration to send equipment to Ukraine with the condition that, if it survives the war, it is returned to the US; and, if it is destroyed, that Ukraine would eventually pay for it. Biden could send, for example, 300 more Bradleys to Ukraine tomorrow under this provision. Most significantly, the Lend-Lease authority has no direct impact on the federal budget: if we were to send those 300 Bradleys, there's no budgetary cost, because we either get them back after the war, or Ukraine owes us the money. So far, Lend-Lease has not been used.
With the clock running down, Biden has proposed an additional $20 billion in funding for Ukraine, $13 billion of which is military aid. But of that $13 billion, only $9 billion is for actual equipment, while much of the rest would be for the cost of our own military efforts in support of Ukraine (satellite photos, intelligence, etc).
Congressional opposition in the GOP runs along two lines. There is, of course, a group opposed to any aid to Ukraine. But there's another group that wants Ukraine to win and is upset that Biden hasn't used the authority they've already granted him to ensure Ukrainian victory. This 2nd group is opposing additional aid unless Biden, for example, agrees to send ATACMS to Ukraine.
Biden's request for additional aid to Ukraine is part of a $40 billion emergency spending request that also includes money to replenish FEMA, as disaster aid is running low. That makes the politics of it dicey for the GOP, as voting against the spending could mean denying aid to people suffering the effects of natural disasters.
At the end of this month, the opportunity for several types of aid to Ukraine are currently scheduled to expire.
For example, the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the Biden administration to send equipment from current US stocks, expires on the 30th. There's about $2 billion left that he could send from that authorization.
I think that the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative still has almost $6 billion left in it, and I don't think that money expires at the end of the month. This is for new contracts of US manufacturers to make equipment for Ukraine. Some of the biggest expenditures have been for HIMARS launchers and NASAMS systems.
The Lend-Lease authority also expires at the end of the month. This would allow the administration to send equipment to Ukraine with the condition that, if it survives the war, it is returned to the US; and, if it is destroyed, that Ukraine would eventually pay for it. Biden could send, for example, 300 more Bradleys to Ukraine tomorrow under this provision. Most significantly, the Lend-Lease authority has no direct impact on the federal budget: if we were to send those 300 Bradleys, there's no budgetary cost, because we either get them back after the war, or Ukraine owes us the money. So far, Lend-Lease has not been used.
With the clock running down, Biden has proposed an additional $20 billion in funding for Ukraine, $13 billion of which is military aid. But of that $13 billion, only $9 billion is for actual equipment, while much of the rest would be for the cost of our own military efforts in support of Ukraine (satellite photos, intelligence, etc).
Congressional opposition in the GOP runs along two lines. There is, of course, a group opposed to any aid to Ukraine. But there's another group that wants Ukraine to win and is upset that Biden hasn't used the authority they've already granted him to ensure Ukrainian victory. This 2nd group is opposing additional aid unless Biden, for example, agrees to send ATACMS to Ukraine.
Biden's request for additional aid to Ukraine is part of a $40 billion emergency spending request that also includes money to replenish FEMA, as disaster aid is running low. That makes the politics of it dicey for the GOP, as voting against the spending could mean denying aid to people suffering the effects of natural disasters.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 7:48 am to GOP_Tiger
Transfer to political board
Posted on 9/4/23 at 8:29 am to jeffsdad
quote:
Breaking: There is a risk that Romanian territory was accidentally hit in last night's Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, Romanian Foreign Minister says - Reuters
LINK
Depending on what exactly happened here I wouldn't be shocked if Romania starts putting some AD on the border and covers some Ukrainian towns in the process.
quote:
The UN Independent International Commission to Investigate Violations in Ukraine once again did not come to the conclusion that genocide is taking place in the country, - the head of the commission, Eric Möse.
"You remember that this is a question of intent, the intent of the criminals. There must be a 'need' to destroy a certain group. And such destruction, according to the Convention, must be physical or biological. Investigations in Ukraine will continue," –– he said.
LINK
Eta
quote:
know Romania's MoD "denied" this hours ago. However, this photo released by Ukrainian officials seems to be from the Romanian side of the border
I will not be suprised if in a few hours Romania says that the drones actually hit Romanian territory.
Either way, nothing will happened. However, considering the weekly attacks on the grain infrastructure around the Danube river this was eventually inevitable.
LINK
quote:
Official statement from Romanian MoND after Ukrainian sources reported Russian munitions impacting on Romanian territory:
“The drone attacks conducted by the Russian Federation did not pose any direct military threats against our national territory or Romania’s territorial waters.”
LINK
This post was edited on 9/4/23 at 8:37 am
Posted on 9/4/23 at 8:55 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
the head of the commission, Eric Möse.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 8:59 am to jeffsdad
quote:
Transfer to political board
No. This board is about the war, and future US funding of the Ukrainian war effort will have a significant effect on the outcome of the war. Discussion of that belongs on this board.
Can GOP supporters of Ukraine extract an ATACMS pledge from Biden in exchange for supporting the bill? If the GOP blocks the funding, does Biden send a large package of equipment through Lend-Lease before the authority to do that expires at the end of the month?
The answers to these kinds of questions could dramatically impact the outcome of the conflict.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 9:09 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Most significantly, the Lend-Lease authority has no direct impact on the federal budget: if we were to send those 300 Bradleys, there's no budgetary cost, because we either get them back after the war, or Ukraine owes us the money.
Because no one believes this pie in the sky nonsense, the ones promoting it do not even believe it.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 9:13 am to WhereisAtlanta
He is entirely correct.
He said no “budgetary cost”. Whether or not it plays out like that over 50 years is up for debate, but it is a fact that it does not affect the budget. That’s the point of lend-lease.
He said no “budgetary cost”. Whether or not it plays out like that over 50 years is up for debate, but it is a fact that it does not affect the budget. That’s the point of lend-lease.
This post was edited on 9/4/23 at 9:13 am
Posted on 9/4/23 at 9:19 am to Hateradedrink
Man if you zoom out a little bit on these maps of the counteroffensive it looks pretty bleak for the Ukrainians. I think they’ve advanced maybe 3 or 4 miles in one small pocket in this 3 month long offensive.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 9:20 am to GOP_Tiger
A comprehensive assessment of the Ukrainian offensive has just been published by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee. It's excellent, but it's long. This is a small excerpt to give you the flavor:
quote:
Russian forces have consistently counter attacked during Ukraine’s counteroffensive. While in some cases they have been able to retake towns seized by Ukrainian units or prevent consolidation, their strategy is aggressive and costly. Given the dearth of forces available, the Russian approach has been aggressive and overconfident. Russian units are often fighting in front of their best fortifications instead of leveraging them for advantage. They can fall back if they are put in a disadvantageous position, but this approach has major tradeoffs: If Russian forces suffer too much attrition in holding forward positions or counterattacking to return them, they risk leaving their forces too weak to properly defend the rest of the defensive line. Hence, an “active” approach has stymied Ukraine’s advance, but at the cost of depleting the Russian defense forward of what were considered the ‘main lines.’ Consequently, solely looking at whether Ukraine has broken through the defensive lines is the wrong way to evaluate this offensive’s progress. Most of the fighting, and the attrition, has taken place at the first Russian line of defense, which Ukraine has pressed through at Robotyne and near Verbove.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 9:24 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Man if you zoom out a little bit on these maps of the counteroffensive it looks pretty bleak for the Ukrainians. I think they’ve advanced maybe 3 or 4 miles in one small pocket in this 3 month long offensive.
That's exactly why Russia has been willing to suffer significant attrition in the south. Russia's goal is still primarily to hold on to its land. While Ukraine is also eager to take ground, they also remain focused on degrading the Russian military.
Read the piece I linked just above by Kofman and Lee if you want to see the full picture.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 9:35 am to GOP_Tiger
russia cant afford to lose space as it puts the land bridge supply line in interdiction range
unlike Karkiv or Kherston, those areas could be lost without effecting the ability to resupply in the south you can only lose so much before the east west roads/railways is in range, as well as the bridges to Crimea and the port cities. think of the south as a bridge head
unlike Karkiv or Kherston, those areas could be lost without effecting the ability to resupply in the south you can only lose so much before the east west roads/railways is in range, as well as the bridges to Crimea and the port cities. think of the south as a bridge head
Posted on 9/4/23 at 9:45 am to GOP_Tiger
I read it. I get that they’re trying to paint as rosy a picture as possible for Ukraine. But no one can seriously say that advancing 4 miles and recapturing a tiny village that is maybe 2 sq KMs in size in 3 months time at the cost of probably 10K+ casualties is a success.
Sure, Russia has taken a lot of casualties but so have the Ukrainians? At this point I doubt that Ukraine has the forces to exploit a breakthrough even if they make one, which doesn’t seem likely anytime soon anyways.
Sure, Russia has taken a lot of casualties but so have the Ukrainians? At this point I doubt that Ukraine has the forces to exploit a breakthrough even if they make one, which doesn’t seem likely anytime soon anyways.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 11:00 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I get that they’re trying to paint as rosy a picture as possible for Ukraine.
Nope. Not in the slightest. Those two guys are not ISW.
Why did I even respond to you? I know better.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 11:17 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Nope. Not in the slightest. Those two guys are not ISW. Why did I even respond to you? I know better.
Because it drives you crazy that I’m right. A 3 month long offensive has secured no significant gains at all. And there are more defensive lines after the first one. At this rate it will take about 2 years to reach Tokmak
Posted on 9/4/23 at 11:30 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
this rate it will take about 2 years to reach Tokmak
UKA will be in Tokmak by the end of October. Which is a lot sooner than Russia will be in Kiev.
A methodical, grinding counter offensive with increasing supplies of western equipment makes the Russian position untenable. Unless Russia punches back hard, they're going to lose this war. One year? Two years? It doesn't really matter.
"The inevitable conclusion to defensive warfare is surrender."
--- Napoleon
Posted on 9/4/23 at 11:33 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Because it drives you crazy that I’m right
No, I'm very comfortable with Ukraine's attrition strategy.
I was frustrated in late June and expressed that here, but I've been comfortable with it for the past two months or so, because it's working. Anyone who looks at equipment losses on a consistent basis would feel the same way.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 11:39 am to No Colors
quote:
UKA will be in Tokmak by the end of October.
No evidence to suggest they’re capable of that.
quote:
Which is a lot sooner than Russia will be in Kiev.
Well I don’t think Russia will ever be in Kiev so I’m not sure what your point is here.
quote:. You’re assuming the tanks and missiles keep flowing forever. And that Ukraine doesn’t attrit its own army to death in an attempt to attrit the Russians.
A methodical, grinding counter offensive with increasing supplies of western equipment makes the Russian position untenable. Unless Russia punches back hard, they're going to lose this war. One year? Two years? It doesn't really matter.
Page 3213 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News