- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/26/23 at 3:15 am to cypher
Posted on 8/26/23 at 3:15 am to cypher
article assumes Robotyne is under Ukrainian control...
Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think
By Jan Kallberg
August 23, 2023
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.
The bleakness of the Western commentariat’s recent output is striking — Ukraine’s counteroffensive has made little progress, they say. Major US news outlets cite intelligence agencies opining that things are “grim” and that hopes are fading that Ukraine can reach its (supposed) objective of Melitopol, more than 50 miles away.
This is simply wrong. Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.
Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns.
Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think
Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think
By Jan Kallberg
August 23, 2023
Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.
The bleakness of the Western commentariat’s recent output is striking — Ukraine’s counteroffensive has made little progress, they say. Major US news outlets cite intelligence agencies opining that things are “grim” and that hopes are fading that Ukraine can reach its (supposed) objective of Melitopol, more than 50 miles away.
This is simply wrong. Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.
Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns.
Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think
0
Posted on 8/26/23 at 4:54 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Gotcha. So more stalemate.
Whenever UKA attacks, it gains between .5 and 1.0km per day. Then it spends a couple of days setting up and receiving the inevitable Russian counterattack. Then it consolidates laterally for a day or two. Then launches another successful attack gaining .5 to 1.0 km.
This formula has been ongoing for about 6 weeks. It has gained about 10-12 km in this method towards Tokmak. Now Tokmak is less than 20 km away and in range of UKA conventional tube artillery.
That's not a stalemate. Another 6-8 weeks of this and Tokmak will fall. And when it does it leaves precisely one highway to supply 200,000 Russian troops in the West.
One highway that is literally under Ukrainian observation and fire control. (Look at a topo map and see the terrain height advantage Ukraine will have this winter essentially in the hills overlooking the flat coastal plain around Melitopol).
It will be a long, miserable winter for the Russians. Then the spring will bring F-16s and M1A1 tanks. The Russians will try to negotiate at that point.
It's not a stalemate. It's a very kinetic battlefield and Ukraine is making material progress towards a very defined goal.
What is Russia's goal at this point? What does victory look like?
Posted on 8/26/23 at 5:27 am to No Colors
quote:
Then the spring will bring F-16s and M1A1 tanks.
The Abrams tanks should be delivered inside the next 3-4 weeks. I am still expecting to see them in action this fall.
And don't forget about the 130 Leopard 1 tanks that are being delivered (Ukraine has already received some). Ukraine can afford to risk a lot of its heavy armor now, because they know that more is on the way.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 5:30 am to TigerFanatic99
quote:Yes they absolutely will turn their anger inward. They will do nothing about anything Putin does. That's their culture and their history. They will play the masochist to the sadists in the Kremlin. That's the deal in Russia.
Russians are going to start getting sick of it and I'm not sure they are going to turn their anger inward.
LINK
LINK
Edited to add link.
This post was edited on 8/26/23 at 5:56 am
Posted on 8/26/23 at 5:33 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The Abrams tanks should be delivered inside the next 3-4 weeks. I am still expecting to see them in action this fall.
I'm not sure they will see action this fall, or at least I'm not counting on it.
When they were originally considered back in the spring there was some talk that they would be used to defend Kiev from an attack from Belarus. Which would free up over 100 T-72Bs to move east.
They may bring them in for an assault on Tokmak or to bypass Tokmak to either side .
I'm not sure that we have the stomach to see Russian propaganda films of burning Abrams tanks this fall. But if they could be the difference between taking Tokmak or not, then it may be worth the price
Posted on 8/26/23 at 6:02 am to No Colors
quote:
bypass Tokmak to either side
This. Same with Melitopol. Urban combat gets you nothing. Get to the head of the inlet south of there and you seal off the land bridge, and then you can start working on the bridge & tunnel at Kerch. Without those, Crimea is untenable. Without Crimea, Russia loses the war.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:45 am to No Colors
quote:
What is Russia's goal at this point? What does victory look like?
If you ask some people, they will tell you Russia already won, but like you I ask what did they win?
Part of a nation that is fighting every minute to kill you? An Afghanistan on steroids? A broken economy?
How long can they sustain this? Others have said they have way more resources and reserves left, but if you can’t use them does it matter?
This post was edited on 8/26/23 at 8:09 am
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:46 am to RockChalkTiger
quote:
Ukrainian forces believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defences in the south and will now be able to advance more quickly, a commander fighting in the south told Reuters
LINK
quote:
Yesterday, two L-39 training planes collided near Zhytomyr. Three pilots were killed
Among the dead was a well-known Ukrainian pilot with the call sign "Juice", who took part in the air defense of Kyiv.
Juice (Andrei Pilshchikov) was a MiG-29 fighter pilot. With the start of the large-scale invasion, he participated in Kyiv's air defense. In interviews with The Washington Post, Financial Times CNN, Fox News, BBC News called on Western partners to provide Ukraine with modern fighter jets.
LINK
Posted on 8/26/23 at 7:56 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
This is where Putin is caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, Russia has more than adequate reserves of men and material necessary to meet the demands of this stalemated war of attrition. But on the other hand, for Russia’s manpower and material advantage to actually mean anything, Russia would actually have to declare a genuine mobilization, not these small “call-up” of reserves Putin has done so far. And considering the number of Russians who stampeded to the closest international border whenever he’s had limited call-ups during the war, it’s apparent the support for this war only extends to the point where it impacts the day to day lives of the Russian people. If, key word there being “if”, the Ukrainians can actually achieve a significant breakthrough in this current operation, Russia, and Putin, will find themselves in a tough spot.
As Ukraine seemingly gets close to a breakthrough south and east of Robotyne, we should discuss the little secret that neither side wants to talk about right now:
Russia actually has the forces to stop the Ukrainian offensive cold. If I say that Russia lacks the operational reserve to back up its forces in Zaporizhzhia, that would be technically true, but only because those forces are still busy conducting an "offensive" in Luhansk Oblast.
Because the Russian informational space depends on the stream of hopium that "we are completing the conquest of the Donbas," Russia has many units (good quality units, too) assigned to the obviously doomed attempt to retake Kupiansk and the senseless fights in the forests west of Kreminna.
Russia could redeploy those forces to the south and stop the Ukrainian offensive. I believe that they could prevent any further Ukrainian advance.
But Russia hasn't done this, because it needs to present the fantasy to the Russian people that they are winning and advancing on their goal of conquering the Donbas. The real question is whether Russia is willing to do this before it's too late for them, and I don't know the answer to that.
Neither side talks about this, because Russia doesn't want to admit that their Luhansk offensive is a failure, and Ukraine doesn't talk about it, because they don't want to point out how Russia could solve its defensive issues in the south.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 8:53 am to GOP_Tiger
True but if Russia moved those forces south, Ukraine could also move some of their forces defending that area to the south as well increasing the power of their offensive.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:08 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
I've seen reports that a full mobilization would tank the economy. Not just in the sens of a recession, but in the sense of key sectors like transportation, agriculture, health care, being completely unable to function.
Putin has been holding back for some reason. Either he thinks he would lose his grip on power or because of the risk of systemic collapse.
I think both the economy and public support factor into Putin’s decision to not go on a full war footing. But, due to the nature of the war and the intensity of combat I don’t see how Putin can keep putting it off. Either Russia will have to go on a wartime footing or they’ll have to drastically scale back their combat operations. The losses Russia is sustaining are unsustainable as things are now. Something is going to have to give.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:20 am to No Colors
quote:
Whenever UKA attacks, it gains between .5 and 1.0km per day. Then it spends a couple of days setting up and receiving the inevitable Russian counterattack. Then it consolidates laterally for a day or two. Then launches another successful attack gaining .5 to 1.0 km. This formula has been ongoing for about 6 weeks. It has gained about 10-12 km in this method towards Tokmak. Now Tokmak is less than 20 km away and in range of UKA conventional tube artillery. That's not a stalemate. Another 6-8 weeks of this and Tokmak will fall. And when it does it leaves precisely one highway to supply 200,000 Russian troops in the West. One highway that is literally under Ukrainian observation and fire control. (Look at a topo map and see the terrain height advantage Ukraine will have this winter essentially in the hills overlooking the flat coastal plain around Melitopol). It will be a long, miserable winter for the Russians. Then the spring will bring F-16s and M1A1 tanks. The Russians will try to negotiate at that point. It's not a stalemate. It's a very kinetic battlefield and Ukraine is making material progress towards a very defined goal. What is Russia's goal at this point? What does victory look like?
The key to all this is one question; can Ukraine sustain the inevitable losses in men and material, not to mention ammunition consumption, long enough to achieve what you’ve laid out?
I believe they have the men, and perhaps even sufficient vehicles. Where I think there could be issues though is in ammunition. This offensive is consuming a gargantuan amount of ammunition, particularly artillery shells. Ukraine is heavily reliant on NATO, particularly the US, for artillery ammunition. And there are several report our stockpiles are getting dangerously low.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:28 am to 03GeeTee
quote:
True but if Russia moved those forces south, Ukraine could also move some of their forces defending that area to the south as well increasing the power of their offensive.
Yes, but the offense needs much more power than the defense. Russia has many of its better units in the northeast, while Ukraine is defending that area with some of poorest-equipped units.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:28 am to doubleb
quote:
What is Russia's goal at this point? What does victory look like?
quote:
If you ask some people, they will tell you Russia already won, but like you I ask what did they win? Part of a nation that is fighting every minute to kill you? An Afghanistan on steroids? A broken economy? How long can they sustain this? Others have said they have way more resources and reserves left, but if you can’t use them does it matter?
This is a very good point. We’re not that far from this war entering into its third year. The questions you raised are most certainly on the minds of the Russian people. And the longer the war goes on with no appreciable gains and mounting losses, with no end in sight, or even an idea of what an end to the war looks like, the more Russians will start to question why the war is still going on.
As I discussed last night, just as Ukraine’s Achilles Heel is their dependence on Western military aid, Russia’s is the will of the Russian people.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:34 am to Darth_Vader
Shoot all you want, we’ll make more: Scranton AAP
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:38 am to RockChalkTiger
We’re not expected to be ramped up to production levels high enough to sustain Ukrainian rates of fire for at least 3 more years.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:44 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
To me, it looks like this attack was not about breaching the Russian 2nd line, but rather about taking Novoprokopivka and everything else above that 2nd line.
That's what I wrote last night.
Now, @DefMon3 agrees with me that Novoprokopivka needs to be taken before the big attempt to breach the Russian 2nd line.
quote:
. I believe they need to liberate Novoprokopivka before they attempt a breach of the defensive line.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:45 am to GeauxxxTigers23
No, but we can change that whenever we want. That’s just one plant. As long as the people at General Dynamics are making money hand over fist, one party is happy. And as long as some of that money is filtering down to people in Pennsylvania, so is the other. The PTB aren’t pulling that plug.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:52 am to RockChalkTiger
quote:
No, but we can change that whenever we want.
The whole point of the video is that we don’t have the capacity to ramp up fast enough. There are only two artillery shell manufacturing facilities in the US. Even if we sent every shell to Ukraine it wouldn’t be enough to meet the demand and they aren’t even getting all of the shells.
Posted on 8/26/23 at 9:54 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The Abrams tanks should be delivered inside the next 3-4 weeks. I am still expecting to see them in action this fall.
And don't forget about the 130 Leopard 1 tanks that are being delivered (Ukraine has already received some). Ukraine can afford to risk a lot of its heavy armor now, because they know that more is on the way.
A handful of Abrams tanks are not going to be much use in Ukraine this year. Abrams are just as susceptible to mines as Leopards, Challengers, and Soviet tanks. The 100+ Leopard1s as well as the mine clearing equipment which is still trickling into Ukraine will be much more useful this year. Plus the Abrams will be the targets of air attacks for propaganda purposes. So it would make more sense to hold them in reserve until the F16s and any extra Migs arrive so the Ukrainians can contest the skies over the front. Plus holding the Abrams in reserve allows more crews to be trained on them and I would not be surprised if the USA sends more Abrams to Ukraine later this year or early next year.
Page 3194 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News