re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Any updates on this reported breakthrough by the Ukrainians?

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Russian channels such as Rybar are still claiming that they are fighting on the outskirts of Robotyne.

Everyone seems to agree that intense battles are ongoing.


My own gut feeling, from reading stuff on both sides, is that Ukraine has made significant gains, but that those currently fall short of a breakthrough.

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Gotcha. So more stalemate.

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The messaging currently at play in the information theatre certainly points towards something large being underway but I don't think any real call can be made at this time.

There is plenty of noise and maps claiming Ukraine breaking through or that Russia has stopped and counter attacked this attempt but little supporting footage to provide firm verification.

We should start seeing plenty of it by the end of the weekend one way or another to give us a picture of whom has met with success.

Edit: Clarity

Can we come up with some codes here.. Novo#1, Novo #2 etc? :)

To me, it looks like this attack was not about breaching the Russian 2nd line, but rather about taking Novoprokopivka and everything else above that 2nd line.

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Those NVGs are worthless without those AA batteries. Russia does not provide socks to its troops why are you expecting them to provide batteries to them?

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Boy you should’ve been around during the early days of the Iraq war.

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I was there in 03. Army though so we actually had everything we needed.

ISW Update

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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 24 remarks about Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death established the Kremlin-approved narrative on the issue, and Russian government officials, Kremlin affiliates, and the Russian information space continued to toe this line on August 25

Some prominent voices in the Russian information space notably deviated from Putin’s established narrative, however

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issued a statement on Prigozhin’s death on August 25 that likely aimed at balancing his relationship with the Kremlin with maintaining domestic control, but that also directly contradicted his previous statements concerning the deal he brokered between the Kremlin and Prigozhin

The Financial Times reported on the bleak future of the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa following Prigozhin’s death.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 25 and reportedly advanced as Russian milbloggers expressed concern over a lack of reinforcements and troop rotations in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified successes in the directions of the Novodanylivka-Novopokropivka (5-13km south of Orikhiv) line and the Mala Tokmachka-Ocheretuvate (9-25km southeast of Orikhiv) line.[25] A prominent Russian milblogger expressed concern about the ability of battle-weary Russian forces to defend against possible future renewed Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) amid claims that fighting shifted to southern Robotyne.[26] The milblogger claimed that many of the Russian servicemen fighting near Robotyne have been on the frontline since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and that these units struggle with a shortage of frontline reinforcements.[27] This claim supports ISW’s assessment that Russian forces fighting in the western Zaporizhia Oblast area have been defending against Ukrainian attacks since the start of the counteroffensive without rotation or significant reinforcement.[28]

Reports of a Russian unit suffering significant losses with inadequate support on an unspecified island in the Dnipro River delta sparked outrage against the Russian military command in some parts of the Russian information space

Ukrainian drones likely struck a Russian duty station in occupied Crimea on August 25

Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful missile and drone strike against targets in Odesa Oblast overnight on August 24-25

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Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 24 remarks about Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death established the Kremlin-approved narrative on the issue, and Russian government officials, Kremlin affiliates, and the Russian information space continued to toe this line on August 25.

Some prominent voices in the Russian information space notably deviated from Putin’s established narrative, however.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issued a statement on Prigozhin’s death on August 25 that likely aimed at balancing his relationship with the Kremlin with maintaining domestic control, but that also directly contradicted his previous statements concerning the deal he brokered between the Kremlin and Prigozhin.

The Financial Times reported on the bleak future of the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa following Prigozhin’s death.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced on August 25 as Russian milbloggers expressed concern over a lack of reinforcements and troop rotations in the area.

Reports of a Russian unit suffering significant losses with inadequate support on an unspecified island in the Dnipro River delta sparked outrage against the Russian military command in some parts of the Russian information space.

Ukrainian drones likely struck a Russian duty station in occupied Crimea on August 25.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk Oblast on August 25 and advanced.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on August 25 and reportedly advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to falsify the results of the September 2023 regional elections in occupied Ukraine. 

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A prominent Russian milblogger expressed concern about the ability of battle-weary Russian forces to defend against possible future renewed Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) amid claims that fighting shifted to southern Robotyne.[26] The milblogger claimed that many of the Russian servicemen fighting near Robotyne have been on the frontline since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and that these units struggle with a shortage of frontline reinforcements.

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This is where Putin is caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, Russia has more than adequate reserves of men and material necessary to meet the demands of this stalemated war of attrition. But on the other hand, for Russia’s manpower and material advantage to actually mean anything, Russia would actually have to declare a genuine mobilization, not these small “call-up” of reserves Putin has done so far. And considering the number of Russians who stampeded to the closest international border whenever he’s had limited call-ups during the war, it’s apparent the support for this war only extends to the point where it impacts the day to day lives of the Russian people. If, key word there being “if”, the Ukrainians can actually achieve a significant breakthrough in this current operation, Russia, and Putin, will find themselves in a tough spot.

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But on the other hand, for Russia’s manpower and material advantage to actually mean anything, Russia would actually have to declare a genuine mobilization, not these small “call-up” of reserves Putin has done so far. And considering the number of Russians who stampeded to the closest international border whenever he’s had limited call-ups during the war, it’s apparent the support for this war only extends to the point where it impacts the day to day lives of the Russian people.

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I've been trying to make this point for months when people prop up Russia's 'manpower advantage.' The manpower advantage doesn't exist if Putin doesn't utilize it and it's clear by now that he won't or more likely can't. The only real manpower advantage that he currently has is that the impact of casualties among the public is more diluted due to the larger population.

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it’s apparent the support for this war only extends to the point where it impacts the day to day lives of the Russian people

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That's my one concern with Ukraine more and more going on the offensive inside Russia. If drones keep blowing up buildings in Moscow, Russians are going to start getting sick of it and I'm not sure they are going to turn their anger inward.

I've seen reports that a full mobilization would tank the economy. Not just in the sens of a recession, but in the sense of key sectors like transportation, agriculture, health care, being completely unable to function.

Putin has been holding back for some reason. Either he thinks he would lose his grip on power or because of the risk of systemic collapse.