re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It'll be interesting to see whether there are enough Wagner true believers to come at Putin again--in substantial part for killing Prigozhin.

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There is not the slightest doubt in my mind that the killing of Prigozhin will result in a greatly increased number of individuals willing to act as guerillas to avenge him. Putin may have just signed his own death warrant.

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but lots of people in the west short Vladimir as in Putin to Vlad, to associate Putin with Vlad the Impaler.

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People just don’t know Russian, and Vlad seems like it would be correct.

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will result in a greatly increased number of individuals willing to act as guerillas to avenge him. Putin may have just signed his own death warrant.

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not even close. It will be confusing, but ultimately they just now have a new boss.

I guess we'll find out tomorrow

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Is there any proof that this is an S-400? The video starts as it's exploding and Russia said it was an S-300 from the start. It's certainly not impossible but I haven't seen anything convincing, have you? Maybe OutsideObserver can find some info, he's good at the deep dives.

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Unfortunately given the distance of the available footage seen thus far it is pretty much impossible to identify which one it was and given other overshadowing events around the Wagner leadership I think this has already fallen off the radar (yes pun intended) so we won't get much more leaving us stuck with each side claiming their preferred version was there.

Also even if the footage was much closer the similarity between the typical vehicle section and TEL's would make discrimination difficult.

https://www.recomonkey.com/Land-Platforms/Air-defence/Self-Propelled

S300


S400


Mark Krutov has a good thread with geolocation and some other footage of the area.

He has the same video and the opening second is pre explosion without a fade in. It definitely looks like a 4 launcher battery with the radar in the middle and whatever sets the left 2 off appears to impact just in front of them but beyond that is anyone's guess.

Also interesting information that it was a former S-300 site under the Soviet era and has a time lapse of its reinstatement which only happened earlier this year.

Given its position it is likely covering north and west Crimea as well as Sevastopol to the SE and the maximum range of S-300 missiles (150km) would be enough for that but that is an observation rather than statement it must be one or the other.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1694346200466534721




Side note: Russia has claimed that they hit and destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 battery today as well.

https://t.me/sitreports/13796

Edit: Clarity, added Russian claim.

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Prigozhin's mutiny was a great victory for Ukraine. Russia's two most effective military leaders in this war, were Prigozhin and Surovikin, and now they have both been permanently removed from the battlefield.

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Quite the coincidence that Surovikin was removed as chief of aerospace forces just a few days before the reported downing of Priogzhin's jet.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 24 August 2023

On 19 August 2023, President Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to Southern Military District HQ at Rostov-on-Don, approximately 160km from the front line.

The HQ hosts the staff running the war in Ukraine.

Putin held a meeting with senior officers, including Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov who continues to command the operation in Ukraine.

Wagner Group briefly seized the HQ in June 2023. Putin highly likely wishes to project his authority and to portray the senior military command as functioning as usual.

After a couple phone calls this morning I believe I have a more fulsome understanding of Prigos last hours. I’m hearing that both of his planes (A and B)were wired with just enough explosives to cause catastrophic engine failure. He effectively replayed poisoned chalice scene from the Princess Bride movie anticipating that there may be something nefarious underway so at the last moment he would switch to the other plane having implied strongly he would be using plane A he would switch to Plane B. Both planes wired up to explode Plane B landed safely and the extra wiring removed before the Russian equivalent of the Transportation safety board showed up for examination. Not that they would look particularly hard.

Reports of fighting, explosions in occupied Crimea as Ukrainian special forces raid Russians
August 24, 2023, 07:47 AM

Sounds of battle were heard near the village of Mayak on Crimea's Cape Tarkhankut early on the morning of Aug. 24, with Ukrainian intelligence sources later revealing Ukrainian that special forces had carried out a daring commando raid on the Russian-occupied peninsula.

Ukrainian intelligence sources told Radio Liberty project Krym.Realii that the raid, which involved naval and air assets took place at around 5 a.m.

While details remain scarce, the village of Mayak is home to a base of Russia's 3rd Radio Regiment of the Aerospace Forces, according to Krym.Realii. There is also reportedly a Nebo-M and Kasta-2E2 radar node on the Tarkhankut Peninsula with air defense positions deployed along the perimeter, suggesting Ukraine may have engaged Russian military sites in the region.

Later on Aug. 24 video of parts of the raid started circulating on social media, with the sounds of gunfire and pictures of Ukrainian special forces soldiers with a Ukrainian flag.

The Defense Intelligence agency of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, known by its Ukrainian acronym HUR, then released a statement on the raid:

"Overnight on Aug. 24, an operation of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine took place, with support from the Ukrainian Navy, in temporarily occupied Crimea. Special units on watercraft landed on the shore in the area of the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak.

“During the execution of the mission, Ukrainian forces engaged in combat with the units of the occupier. As a result, the enemy suffered losses among personnel, and enemy equipment was destroyed. Also, the state flag flew again in the Ukrainian Crimea. All goals and tasks were completed.

“At the end of the special operation, Ukrainian forces left the scene without casualties. The occupation administration of Crimea does not comment on the events, despite the mass appeals of local residents. The only message refers to supposedly ‘destruction of munitions according to a set schedule.’

“The Ukrainian Defense Forces will continue to assist the occupiers in destroying ammunition, equipment and manpower."

The New Voice of Ukraine