- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/23/23 at 7:57 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 8/23/23 at 7:57 pm to Darth_Vader
A really good post
Based off history, I’m going with Russia.
quote:
Thus, the crux of the matter in this war of attrition is what will hold out longer? NATO support for Ukraine or the will of the Russian people to tolerate the war? Only time will tell.
Based off history, I’m going with Russia.
2
Posted on 8/23/23 at 7:59 pm to Veritas
quote:
Based off history, I’m going with Russia.
Based on history I’m going with Afghanistan.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 8:01 pm to Veritas
quote:
Our sanctions did Jack shite and propped up Russian oil and gas.
What does this mean? You think Russia is getting more real income from their oil and gas now than if they weren't sanctioned?
Posted on 8/23/23 at 8:07 pm to Veritas
quote:
Russia’s goal is to suck the west into a proxy war and drain our resources over time, not just tangible
There you have it folks. Russia didn’t *actually* want to win any tangible gains by invading. They meant to stall 1/5 of the way in. The failure to capture Kyiv was 4d chess by Putin. Getting their shite pushed in and routed out of Kharkiv and across the Dnipro? More grand strategy !
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 8:12 pm
Posted on 8/23/23 at 8:24 pm to REG861
If there are semi-intelligent trolls, I understand engaging with them, and I have certainly done it myself.
But, y'all, we really should just ignore the true dumbass trolls.
But, y'all, we really should just ignore the true dumbass trolls.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 8:43 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
have lost upwards of 100k KIA/WIA/MIA
That’s a high estimate, it’s probably closer to 60k.
The BBC could only find 14k obituaries when they did their survey in February.
quote:
because nothing screams competent like not ending a war quickly when you can
Moscow doesn’t way to pay the economic price of a total war.
They’re also being patient in a very unAmerican way. When plan A failed in 22, and they realized they didn’t have enough men in uniform to win the war, they one, rapidly expanded military production, two, mobilized their reserves and dramatically expanded recruiting, and three, wrote off an entire year of fighting. Which is interesting. Other than the units that supported Wagner, the Russians largely stayed on the defensive. There was no real winter campaign.
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 8/23/23 at 8:53 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Other than the units that supported Wagner, the Russians largely stayed on the defensive. There was no real winter campaign.
If you want to pretend that Russia didn't lose over 100 pieces of equipment attacking Vuhledar, then you can. You can pretend whatever you want.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:16 pm to GOP_Tiger
So Putin takes out Wagner and the politards come to jerk off in this thread. Why?
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:18 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Does anyone know what happens to Wagner now?
They'll cease to exist after a power struggle.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:22 pm to Veritas
quote:
Based off history, I’m going with Russia.
Well, even there it’s a mixed bag. Russia’s win loss rate when it comes to war over the last roughly 130 years is checkered at best. The main thing that determines how well they do is public support.
In the Russo-Japanese War, the Russian public went into it with high hopes for squashing what they perceived was a weaker and racially inferior enemy. When things turned sour, specifically the Japanese crushing the Russian Navy and taking Port Arthur, the public turned against the war. When the fighting there devolved into a stalemate and Russia was forced into an unfavorable end of the war via the Treaty of Portsmouth, Revolution broke out in Russia. This one failed, but it left the Romanov Dynasty tottering on the brink of the abyss.
Nine years later, when WWI broke out, again there was widespread initial support in Russia for the war effort. This despite the war was, from the Russian point of view, to protect its interests in the Balkans and not a matter of national survival. However, this support soon collapsed amidst astronomical casualties, a seemingly endless stream of failed offensives or even outright defeats, and the realization this war, like the Russo-Japanese war just under a decade before was for all intents and purposes, a stalemate. Once again revolution broke out in Russia, but this time it swept away the Romanov Dynasty and ushered in the world’s first communist country.
Following the October Revolution that ushered the Bolsheviks into power, Russia saw itself embroiled in a civil war and wars against Ukraine and Poland, who’d both gained their independence with the collapse of the Russian Empire. The Reds won the Civil War, managed to subdue Ukraine (thanks to Ukrainian communists) but were forced to sue for peace with Poland after once again the Russian people grew weary of war and tired of fighting for conquest.
That brings us to WWII where what most people’s knowledge of Russia comes from. In this war, the Russians endured over 20 million dead and still had the will to see the war though to the end. So why this war? What was different about this war from the string of wars Russia had lost in the previous 40 years? Simple, Russia was faced with not only political but also actual inhalation. Simply put, the Russian people saw only two options available to them in WWII, victory or national extinction. Thus, the Russians of 1940-45 were willing to endure far more losses and privations than those of 1905, 1917, or 1921.
Russia would not itself become embroiled in another actual war, if you don’t count their limited “advisors” in places like Korea and Vietnam, until their invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Once again the Russian people were asked to support a war outside their borders and not for national survival. This war, as Russian wars tend to usually do, developed into a stalemate. And while the communist government in Russia had a massive amount of control over information, the public still turned against the war once they realized thousands of Russian men were dying for basically nothing. The trust the Russian people had in the Soviet System was gone after 10 years of futile losses. The Soviets were forced withdraw in defeat in 1989. Following this, the Soviet Union collapsed just two years later.
So what’s the lesson to take from all this? Well, it’s apparent that when Russia becomes entangled in a foreign war, not for national survival, and that war becomes a stalemate, they almost always end up on the losing end of the bargain.
So be careful placing your bets.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:30 pm to Darth_Vader
ISW Update
quote:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization
Prigozhin was likely attempting to counter the Russian MoD’s and the Kremlin’s destruction of Wagner.
Wagner PMC’s future without a leader remains uncertain
Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane
Putin may have concluded that he had sufficiently separated Prigozhin from Wagner and could kill him without turning Prigozhin into a martyr for the remaining Wagner personnel
Alternatively, Putin may have decided that Prigozhin had crossed a pre-established redline with his efforts to retain Wagner’s access to operations in Africa
It is possible that Putin has intended to execute Prigozhin for some time and that the downing of Prigozhin’s plane on August 23 was coincidental timing, although this is unlikely
Putin’s almost certain order for the Russian MoD to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane is likely a public attempt to reassert his dominance and exact vengeance for the humiliation that the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24 caused Putin and the Russian MoD
Specific individuals who may have planned to oppose Putin, the Kremlin, or the MoD have likely taken note of Prigozhin’s ultimate fate and other recent measures to reassert the Kremlin’s backing for the senior Russian military leadership
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military
The wider Russian information space refrained from commenting on the reasons behind the crash, with only a few sources tying the incident to the Kremlin and/or the Russian MoD
Russian milbloggers will likely focus most of their coverage in the coming days on Prigozhin’s assassination and may report less on the Ukrainian counteroffensive
Further tactically significant Ukrainian gains in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast are widening the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in the area and threatening Russian secondary lines of defense.
Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea on August 23
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Pentagon Spokesperson General Patrick Ryder notably pushed back on an alleged US intelligence assessment that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will fail to meet its objectives
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine on the night of August 22 to 23 and destroyed grain infrastructure at the port in Izmail, Odesa Oblast.
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization.
Prigozhin was likely attempting to counter the Russian MoD’s and the Kremlin’s destruction of Wagner and Wagner’s future remains uncertain.
Putin almost certainly ordered the Russian military command to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane.
Putin's almost certain order for the Russian MoD to shoot down Prigozhin’s plane is likely a public attempt to reassert his dominance and exact vengeance for the humiliation that the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion on June 24 caused Putin and the Russian MoD.
Specific individuals who may have planned to oppose Putin, the Kremlin, or the MoD have likely taken note of Prigozhin’s ultimate fate and other recent measures to reassert the Kremlin’s backing for the senior Russian military leadership.
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to deflect overt responsibility for Prigozhin’s assassination away from Putin and the Russian military.
Further tactically significant Ukrainian gains in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast are widening the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in the area and threatening Russian secondary lines of defense.
Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea on August 23.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut area, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on August 23 and did not make any confirmed advances.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:33 pm to StormyMcMan
Has the Kremlin offered any official explanation? Are they calling it an accident?
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:34 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Frankly I always thought it was stupid for Wagner to just stop like they did. Once they began their March on Moscow, the Rubicon had been crossed. Anyone with walking around sense knew Putin would not just let it go. The moment they started the March to Moscow they should have realized from that moment on either they were going to take Putin out or he was going to take them out. Prigozhin was stupid and it got him killed.
It'll be interesting to see whether there are enough Wagner true believers to come at Putin again--in substantial part for killing Prigozhin.
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 9:36 pm
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:38 pm to BayouBlitz
quote:
Just a reminder that moment of truth thinks Damar Hamlin is actually dead and a body double is masquerading as him on a football field.
He also believes that the mental health crisis isn't real and that all therapists are "witch doctors."
quote:
He's a fricking idiot
Yeah, there's that.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:39 pm to NOLATiger163
For what its worth, Vova/Volodya are the diminutives of Vladimir.
Vlad is short for Vladislav.
Vlad is short for Vladislav.
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 9:39 pm
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:58 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Solid posts Darth!
Thanks Chrome. I just call balls & strikes like I see ‘em. And I try to be as objective as possible when it comes to discussing this war.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:01 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Ukrainian forces likely struck a Russian S-400 air defense system in Crimea on August 23.
Is there any proof that this is an S-400? The video starts as it's exploding and Russia said it was an S-300 from the start. It's certainly not impossible but I haven't seen anything convincing, have you? Maybe OutsideObserver can find some info, he's good at the deep dives.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:03 pm to NOLATiger163
Someone said that Shoigu and Gerasimov finally delivered that ordinance today that Prigozhin had been asking for for months.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 10:05 pm to NOLATiger163
quote:
It'll be interesting to see whether there are enough Wagner true believers to come at Putin again--in substantial part for killing Prigozhin.
My gut tells me it would be difficult for Wagner to present anything resembling a threat to Putin. It wasn’t just Prigozhin who Putin killed today. From what I’ve read about this shorting down, the entire senior leadership apparatus of Wagner was likewise wiped out when that plane shot down. For all intents and purposes, Putin cut off the head of the snake. Now, most likely the body will die.
Having said that, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that perhaps individual members of Wagner might seek their own personal revenge against Putin via assassination. How realistic of a threat they pose, is anyone’s guess.
Page 3184 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News