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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/12/23 at 6:06 pm to northshorebamaman
Posted on 8/12/23 at 6:06 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
They want to be able to do that. They just need more wild weasel capable aircraft. Per my sauce(s) they have a total of < 10 Mig29s capable of performing wild weasel missions. These are all 40+ year old Migs which means they need a lot of maintenance to stay in the air. Those Migs are also needed for other missions. Which means it might have only 2-4 Migs available for wild weasel missions on any given day. If Ukraine looses a Mig29 capable of performing a wild weasel mission even if the pilot survives and is rescued they don't have the capacity to replace it because only a few of their Migs have the proper hard points to attach HARMS. At least all the F16s have the ability to mount HARMs so if an F16s is lost on a wild weasel mission then it can be replaced by another F16s given to Ukraine.
I swear to god, I'll pistol whip the next person that says wild weasel.
0
Posted on 8/12/23 at 6:22 pm to LSUEnjoyer
quote:
The USA sent $113 Billion to Ukraine in 2022 alone,
Did not happen according to your subsequent link. And I’m gone, I don’t want to beat a dead horse to death.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 6:24 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian sources continue to describe Ukrainian groups operating on the left bank as small in size and fighting to be primarily between light infantry units. No Russian sources have indicated that Ukrainian forces on the left bank have the heavy equipment or vehicles likely required to establish a bridgehead that would be necessary to enable wider offensive operations into left bank Kherson Oblast.[5] An effective Russian mechanized counterattack could threaten this Ukrainian advance position, but it is unclear if Russian forces possess the mechanized reserves necessary to do so. ISW will continue to offer a conservative assessment of the situation on the east bank of Kherson Oblast until or unless ISW observes visual confirmation of an enduring Ukrainian presence on the east bank of Kherson Oblast. ISW has not yet observed visual evidence that Ukrainian forces have established a permanent position or have deployed a substantial number of personnel near Kozachi Laheri
I disagree with ISW's take for two reasons:
1) Ukrainian infantry operating near Kozachi Laheri are well protected by Ukrainian artillery on the other side of the Dnipro, and that artillery is currently pounding Russian positions.
2) Russia has very little heavy armor itself in South Kherson. The Ukrainian lack of armor over the river (for the time being) is not such a big disadvantage if Russia is also lacking in that department.
EDIT: On this topic, Ukraine just hit a Russian base and ammo depot due south of their position near Kozachi Laheri.
LINK with video
quote:
Strikes on Russian base in Radensk, Kherson region were reported today. Military vehicles with ammunition were hit.
This post was edited on 8/12/23 at 7:10 pm
Posted on 8/12/23 at 6:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
You either just straight up lied, or you lack middle-school level reading comprehension. Which was it?
Give the orc a break. He understands English far better than I understand Russian but lacks junior high (my era) reading comprehension.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 8:57 pm to OutsideObserver
Y'all are still fricking feeding the trolls I see.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 9:40 pm to gizmothepug
quote:
Maybe it’s about time for a DMZ
But how would that work? Would Russia not break another promise as doin as they rested and were ready to attack again? I think they’d lie again and do whatever they wanted. DMZ or no DMZ.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 9:46 pm to doubleb
Barring some significant breakthrough that I don’t see happening, the lines probably won’t change much over the next year. So if you get some sort of ceasefire and DMZ you can then arm and train Ukraine with modern aircraft and weapons, possibly even admit what’s left of Ukraine into NATO, which should deter Russia from any further aggression.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 9:51 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
I’m not for letting Ukraine into NATO.
It’s too risky. I think we’d be asking for trouble.
It’s too risky. I think we’d be asking for trouble.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 10:06 pm to doubleb
Well me either. But if Ukraine can’t retake their territory, and I don’t think they can without about 10x the amount of weapons than we’re willing to give, then a truce and and DMZ like structure will give them the breathing room to build a capable and trained army and more importantly an Air Force that is truly trained and well versed in western tactics. It also gives the rest of the west time to rebuild its weapons manufacturing infrastructure.
Posted on 8/12/23 at 10:11 pm to doubleb
Just give them back their nukes and problem solved
Posted on 8/12/23 at 10:34 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 8/13/23 at 4:37 am to Sayre
?British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 August 2023
The Wagner Group is likely moving towards a down-sizing and reconfiguration process, largely to save on staff salary expenses at a time of financial pressure.
Since the abortive mutiny of June 2023, the Russian state has acted against some other business interests of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin. There is a realistic possibility that the Kremlin no longer funds the group.
If the Russian state no longer pays Wagner, the second most plausible paymasters are the Belarusian authorities.
However, the sizable force would be a significant and potentially unwelcome drain on modest Belarusian resources.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 August 2023
The Wagner Group is likely moving towards a down-sizing and reconfiguration process, largely to save on staff salary expenses at a time of financial pressure.
Since the abortive mutiny of June 2023, the Russian state has acted against some other business interests of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin. There is a realistic possibility that the Kremlin no longer funds the group.
If the Russian state no longer pays Wagner, the second most plausible paymasters are the Belarusian authorities.
However, the sizable force would be a significant and potentially unwelcome drain on modest Belarusian resources.
Posted on 8/13/23 at 7:20 am to cypher
Russian take
LINK
Others take
LINK
LINK
quote:
?????????? Vremivka sector
Situation as of 11.00 a.m. on August 13, 2023
During the night, combined detachments of the 35th and 37th Marine Brigades of the Ukrainian Navy, supported by artillery fire from the 55th brigade and tanks from the 1st brigade, entrenched themselves in the northern part of Urozhaynoye. According to intercepts of conversations between members of the AFU, the Ukrainian marines took up a circular defense, expecting an attack by the RF Armed Forces.
Despite statements about the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from Urozhaynoye, the "Cascade" brigade is still holding the defense in the south of the village. The onslaught of the AFU does not subside: over the past two days, Ukrainian units attacked the positions of the Russian army with a total force of more than a hundred people and 15-20 units of armored vehicles.
??Today the Ukrainian command has set a task to establish full control over Urozhaynoye, so the onslaught is likely to intensify. For this purpose, three assault groups were transferred to the controlled part of Staromayorske.
??More attacks are to be expected. The lack of meaningful successes on the front is forcing the Ukrainian command to show some results at any cost, and looming control over the destroyed Urozhaynoye has become the No. 1 target.
Paratroopers from the 3rd Assault Battalion of the 80th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard have already arrived in Bolshaya Novoselka, and the 4th Battalion of the 15th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard is expected to move from Komar in the near future.
LINK
Others take
quote:
This is how the Russians were run from the Urozhaine - no trucks, no armored vehicles, just walk under Ukrainian fire.
Everything is going according to the plan.
LINK
quote:
Classic scheme: first they surrender Urozhaine, then they start blaming everyone for their faults. In reality, elite Russian troops were unable to withstand the onslaught and were pushed out. But we are not stopping here.
LINK
Posted on 8/13/23 at 9:15 am to StormyMcMan
With the recapture of Urozhaine, only one small village stands between Ukrainian troops and the transportation hub of Staromlynivka, the village of Zavitne Bazhannya.
But if you look at Zavitne Bazhannya on a map, you'll see that it's surrounded by the Yokri Maly River on three sides. I therefore expect Ukraine to essentially bypass it by advancing towards Staromlynivka in the open fields further away from the river. When that happens, Zavitne Bazhannya will eventually be cut off.
The upcoming battle for Staromlynivka is of critical importance. Since there are roads out of the town to the east, southeast, and southwest, taking it opens up multiple opportunities for Ukraine. The capture of Staromlynivka would also put Mariupol squarely in HIMARS range and allow Ukraine to strike the coastal road.
But if you look at Zavitne Bazhannya on a map, you'll see that it's surrounded by the Yokri Maly River on three sides. I therefore expect Ukraine to essentially bypass it by advancing towards Staromlynivka in the open fields further away from the river. When that happens, Zavitne Bazhannya will eventually be cut off.
The upcoming battle for Staromlynivka is of critical importance. Since there are roads out of the town to the east, southeast, and southwest, taking it opens up multiple opportunities for Ukraine. The capture of Staromlynivka would also put Mariupol squarely in HIMARS range and allow Ukraine to strike the coastal road.
Posted on 8/13/23 at 10:09 am to GOP_Tiger
I don’t think Ukraine has many storm shadow left. It seems like the last few attacks on the Kerch bridge have been with S-200 missiles.
Posted on 8/13/23 at 10:23 am to GeauxxxTigers23
To my knowledge, Ukraine hasn't attacked the Kerch bridge with Storm Shadow missiles at all yet. With the Storm Shadow's range the Ukrainian Su-24 would have to launch the missile from near the frontline or even over occupied territory.
Posted on 8/13/23 at 11:23 am to 03GeeTee
If Ukraine claims Crimea as its own, why would they continually try and blow up a bridge that is bringing critical supplies to civilians of their sovereign country?
Russia says so much aid money is tied up in "largesse" that the actual equipment getting to Ukranians will never be sufficient.
Even Europe is publicly lamenting there was no offensive, or it was rather offensive in its lack of execution.
Zelensky just fired all the heads of their recruiting centers because they were taking kickbacks to get people out of service. Does this sound like a country whose people believe its a just cause. And its probably the same reason he fired half his cabinet a few months ago...they were complaining about the large portion of kickbacks he was taking and not sharing enough.
Could have all been prevented back in 2014 and several times since, but someone has to make some money, and many lives lost on both sides for that reason alone.
Ukraine better step up before they lose the entire country and make some serious concessions, the clock is ticking.
Russia says so much aid money is tied up in "largesse" that the actual equipment getting to Ukranians will never be sufficient.
Even Europe is publicly lamenting there was no offensive, or it was rather offensive in its lack of execution.
Zelensky just fired all the heads of their recruiting centers because they were taking kickbacks to get people out of service. Does this sound like a country whose people believe its a just cause. And its probably the same reason he fired half his cabinet a few months ago...they were complaining about the large portion of kickbacks he was taking and not sharing enough.
Could have all been prevented back in 2014 and several times since, but someone has to make some money, and many lives lost on both sides for that reason alone.
Ukraine better step up before they lose the entire country and make some serious concessions, the clock is ticking.
Posted on 8/13/23 at 11:26 am to TutHillTiger
I mean this is sort of a joke but Ukraine will have to get some meaningful security guarantees, or they’re going to start a nuclear program.
They got invaded by a nuclear power and couldn’t meaningfully retaliate because nukes. All they can do is try to kill them inside their own boarders.
They got invaded by a nuclear power and couldn’t meaningfully retaliate because nukes. All they can do is try to kill them inside their own boarders.
This post was edited on 8/13/23 at 11:28 am
Posted on 8/13/23 at 11:27 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Ukraine better step up before they lose the entire country
Lol. Russia tried that already and failed.
Posted on 8/13/23 at 11:29 am to Hateradedrink
We won’t let them start a nuclear program.
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