re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Depends what the F-16 is carrying in weaponry

Very good reply and I agree with you. It seems that we are on the same page in nearly all details.

But it seems to me that the west could have provided the necessary equipment earlier to deter Russian defense build up in the South and they did not do it.

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The F-16 is capable of wild weasel missions. The last time I spoke with someone in the Ukrainian air force it had < 10 Mig29s capable of performing wild weasel missions. A handful of F16s would double their capacity to take our Russia's anti-air defenses over the front line. If Ukraine can take out or significantly reduce the air defenses over the front line then Ukraine can attack with air cover which would be a game changer for any offensive operation.

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Have the Ukrainian MiGs been successful in their wild weasel missions? The S-300 and other air defenses are a lot more advanced than the air defenses that even the F-16 was designed to conduct SEAD against.

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There are more interesting details at both links, if you want to read more about how Russian central bankers prevented the economic collapse that the West expected (and that they themselves feared).

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for the links, will peruse.

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Have the Ukrainian MiGs been successful in their wild weasel missions?

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Ukraine claims that they knocked out both S300s and S400s during their Kherson offensive last fall. However, it is not the S300 and S400 that is keeping Ukrainian helicopters and ground attack aircraft away from the frontline. The presence of wild weasel aircraft and long range drones have forced the S300 and S400 to be redeployed to Crimea and other places. According to my sauce(s) in the Ukrainian defense forces S300s and S400s are hardly ever fired at Ukrainian aircraft near the front lines. It is Russian medium and short range SAMs that are keeping the Ukrainian aircraft away the front lines. Those are much older systems and systems that wild weasels are perfectly capable of taking out. Ukraine just needs more wild weasel capable aircraft.

It would seem to me that Ukraine would concentrate their limited wild weasel assets to concentrated sector of the line where they wanted to breakthrough and create hole for the helos and CAS aircraft to operate in to support the ground troops in a punch through the line.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are maintaining a presence on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast in contrast to previous Ukrainian raids, but ISW does not yet assess that these positions constitute a bridgehead.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 12 and reportedly made tactically significant advances along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.

Ukrainian forces reportedly launched two missile strikes targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge and a drone attack targeting occupied Crimea on August 12.

Russian forces conducted counteroffensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 12 and made no confirmed gains.

The Russian Ministry of Digital Development is preparing an amendment to the law on the conscription age that would increase the military service deferment age for IT specialists from 27 years to 30 years, likely in response to concerns about “brain drain” from Russia.

Russian authorities are reportedly adjusting propaganda language about the war aimed at Russian schoolchildren in Russia and occupied Ukraine.

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Kerch bridge statement

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Russian authorities claimed that Russian air defenses downed up to three Ukrainian ground attack missiles fired from S-200 systems targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge.[12] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also reported Ukrainian forces targeted occupied Crimea with 20 drones on the night of August 11­–12.[13] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian air defenses shot down 14 Ukrainian drones and downed another 6 drones with electronic warfare (EW) systems.[14] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian air defense units of the 31st Air Defense Division shot down one of the Ukrainian missiles near Kerch in occupied Crimea.[15] Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities stopped traffic on the bridge for several hours following the Ukrainian missile and drone strikes, creating a traffic jam of almost 1,300 cars.[16] Russian sources claimed that Crimean occupation authorities are initiating tougher criminal liability for publishing photos and videos showing locations of military installations such as air defenses, likely in response to a photo posted today showing the location of a Russian air defense system in occupied Crimea.[17] Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian logistics in Crimea are a part of a deliberate interdiction campaign aimed at setting favorable conditions for larger counteroffensive operations. Previous Ukrainian strikes on bridges along Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) between occupied Crimea and occupied Kherson Oblast continue to disrupt Russian logistics.[18]

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It would seem to me that Ukraine would concentrate their limited wild weasel assets to concentrated sector of the line where they wanted to breakthrough and create hole for the helos and CAS aircraft to operate in to support the ground troops in a punch through the line.

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They want to be able to do that. They just need more wild weasel capable aircraft. Per my sauce(s) they have a total of < 10 Mig29s capable of performing wild weasel missions. These are all 40+ year old Migs which means they need a lot of maintenance to stay in the air. Those Migs are also needed for other missions. Which means it might have only 2-4 Migs available for wild weasel missions on any given day. If Ukraine looses a Mig29 capable of performing a wild weasel mission even if the pilot survives and is rescued they don't have the capacity to replace it because only a few of their Migs have the proper hard points to attach HARMS. At least all the F16s have the ability to mount HARMs so if an F16s is lost on a wild weasel mission then it can be replaced by another F16s given to Ukraine.

Boy is this one ironic post.

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Boy is this one ironic post.

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His link destroyed his post. We all can read. Well at least most of us.