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Message
1
Posted on 8/3/23 at 9:47 am to GOP_Tiger
When does the winter weather start to a point of effecting operations of either side?
Posted on 8/3/23 at 9:54 am to TBoy
Honestly I think Ukraine is just looking for movement anywhere they can get it at this point. If they can move the line around bakhmut, then around bakhmut they will push.
And I don’t really think it’s to gain any morale advantage over the Russians. The Russians will have plenty to crow about if there is no major change to the front lines through the fall. Ukraine needs something to show the west.
And I don’t really think it’s to gain any morale advantage over the Russians. The Russians will have plenty to crow about if there is no major change to the front lines through the fall. Ukraine needs something to show the west.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 9:59 am to ColtRange
How many more days until Kiev falls, pinko?
Posted on 8/3/23 at 10:01 am to XenScott
quote:
When does the winter weather start to a point of effecting operations of either side?
It starts earlier in the north than in the south. It's obviously impossible to give exact dates, but my understanding is that motorized movement begins to get challenging around mid-October in the north, and at the end of October in the south.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 10:09 am to TBoy
quote:
From a tactical standpoint it apparently has little importance. However, for the Russians it represents the only “success” from their winter offensive, taken at a cost of hundreds or thousands of lives. If Ukraine takes it right back, it becomes a symbol of Russian weakness and failure. That may be its only value at this point.
Yes, most of Russia is still pretending that they will "win"; i.e. they will hold on to the south and eventually (after the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine) finish taking the rest of the Donbas.
If someone in Russia were to argue that Russia hasn't taken anything in the last 12 months, another person could reply, "Well, we took Bakhmut."
If Russia were to lose Bakhmut, it would confirm in the minds of many ordinary Russians that Prigozhin was right about Shoigu and Gerasimov. Russian milbloggers would lose their sh*t, and then Girkin wouldn't be the only one of them in jail.
It would be very dangerous for the Kremlin if the Russian public writ large were to conclude that Prigozhin was right, as Prigozhin then becomes a major threat to make another march on Moscow, as he might then get a lot more support from inside the Russian military. Who knows?
In other words, no, a possible Ukrainian recapture of Bakhmut doesn't unlock the door to Donetsk or anything like that. It's not strategic in the simply military sense. But the symbolic importance of the city could be very significant.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 10:10 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
most of OTL is still pretending that they will "win"
Fify
Posted on 8/3/23 at 10:56 am to doubleb
quote:
Bakmut isn’t important, then it becomes important, no it’s not, yes it is...... The propaganda goes back and forth.
it is more of a propoganda at this point for both sides.
however, since Bakmut front was only recently taken compared to all the other regions that basically have been in russian control since march of 22, the Bakmut front does not have the buult up defensive lines like everywhere else. fighting there likly has lower loss rates vs the south and its a point to lock down russia forces with lower cost then elsewhere.
Also, Ukrain's goal is to take back All of their pre 2014 territory so it will need to be take eventually, why not kee the pressure on it now while defenses are lighter...
Posted on 8/3/23 at 10:57 am to GOP_Tiger
I think focusing resources on bakhmut is a tacit acknowledgement from both sides that neither can muscle the other.
Russia needs it because they need a win.
Ukraine needs it because they need propaganda as they can’t just ignore bakhmut and use those resources to push Russia out where it matters.
Russia needs it because they need a win.
Ukraine needs it because they need propaganda as they can’t just ignore bakhmut and use those resources to push Russia out where it matters.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 11:21 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If Russia were to lose Bakhmut, it would confirm in the minds of many ordinary Russians that Prigozhin was right about Shoigu and Gerasimov. Russian milbloggers would lose their sh*t, and then Girkin wouldn't be the only one of them in jail.
I think people should not be concerned about what ordinary Russians think. It’s not their Vietnam. Their opinions do not matter. Putin will continue being Putin. Trying to change Russian public opinion is foolish.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 11:31 am to XenScott
quote:
When does the winter weather start to a point of effecting operations of either side?
As already mentioned, exact dates are hard to pin down outside a broad range and varies with location.
Historically mid to late November is when you start to see sub-zero (in celsius) temperatures.
At this point you will start to see mobility issues until the ground hardens enough to not be slush and also see morale issues as troops out in trenches start to freeze.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 12:40 pm to OutsideObserver
I don't think that knocking bridges and other things 20 -30 miles behind the front lines is going to make a hill of beans in this conflict. If the Ukranians cannot solve the minefields they will not win. The Russians can have thinly manned lines behind the minefields and put up an effective front.
It will take some sort of massive remote operated mine clearing operations with effective artillery suppression to break the lines. Not sure if that can be accomplished without a new approach or new technology. This is turning into WW1 over one hundred years later.
It will take some sort of massive remote operated mine clearing operations with effective artillery suppression to break the lines. Not sure if that can be accomplished without a new approach or new technology. This is turning into WW1 over one hundred years later.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 12:52 pm to Pfft
quote:
I don't think that knocking bridges and other things 20 -30 miles behind the front lines is going to make a hill of beans in this conflict
Weren't the Ukrainians able to retake Kherson by hammering logistics routes way behind the line and eventually forcing a retreat? That's how I remember it, anyway.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 1:16 pm to El Mattadorr
quote:
Weren't the Ukrainians able to retake Kherson by hammering logistics routes way behind the line and eventually forcing a retreat? That's how I remember it, anyway.
The Russians were stuck on the other side of the river for that one. It was an untenable position really.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 1:50 pm to MrLSU
n
This post was edited on 8/11/23 at 10:28 pm
Posted on 8/3/23 at 2:45 pm to MrLSU
With the history of Africa, Russia is taking a high risk high reward investment approach.
Africa is very unstable with governments since colonial days.
Africa is very unstable with governments since colonial days.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 3:49 pm to MrLSU
Hinkle is most definitely a Russian propagandist.
Good for Russia with their lower grade wheat.
Egypt could feed its own population but has opted to be a major cotton producer instead. Higher dollar value for the government.
France having the only expeditionary capability in Europe can now focus on Europe instead of its African interests. Nigeria's new giant fertilizer plant and soon to be fully operating giant refinery is a very big deal.
Good for Russia with their lower grade wheat.
Egypt could feed its own population but has opted to be a major cotton producer instead. Higher dollar value for the government.
France having the only expeditionary capability in Europe can now focus on Europe instead of its African interests. Nigeria's new giant fertilizer plant and soon to be fully operating giant refinery is a very big deal.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 4:32 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Hinkle is most definitely a Russian propagandist.
You’re a military industrial complex propagandist. Possibly a profiteer, definitely a Warhawk, likely a Fed.
Posted on 8/3/23 at 4:44 pm to ThanosIsADemocrat
quote:
You’re a military industrial complex propagandist. Possibly a profiteer, definitely a Warhawk, likely a Fed.
Name calling is the last refuge of those that have lost an argument
Posted on 8/3/23 at 5:00 pm to ThanosIsADemocrat
What Military Industrial Complex? We shutdown most of the weapons manufacturing over the last decade.
Have fun with the other nutters.
Hinkle has had PEDO Ritter and idiot MacGregor on to interview each more than once. Definitely Russian propagandist.
CASE CLOSED
Have fun with the other nutters.
Hinkle has had PEDO Ritter and idiot MacGregor on to interview each more than once. Definitely Russian propagandist.
CASE CLOSED
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