re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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To compare it to football, I'd say we're at halftime, they have the 2nd half to do something.

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To compare the Ukrainian offensive to football, I would say that they began by attempting LSU's 2019 offense. Unfortunately, they do not have the military equivalent of Burrow, Jefferson, and Chase; and it turned out that the Russians have excellent pass rushers and defensive backs.

Since that didn't work, Ukraine is instead trying something like a Les Miles offense. They are pounding the rock and softening up the defense, with the hope of wearing them out so that the running backs can go wild in the fourth quarter, after the defense is too tired.

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But to answer your question, no I am not sure, lol. You get what you pay for on this site. I am not a military expert, just a guy trying to figure things out.

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And amazingly, I think this thread is as good as it gets for coverage and analysis of this war. Your post was the first I read that pointed out the importance of Staromlynivka in terms of bringing all east/west Russian movement into full Ukrainian artillery range.

Hopefully the Ukes are better at game management than Les.
In terms of offense, they are taking what the Ruskies give them.
Patience.
I think Ukraine can sustain this dynamic longer than Russia.

Several reports of drone and missile launches towards Odessa region - possible retaliation towards Ukraine following the strike on the Kerch bridge earlier and to signify their intent to not engage with the grain deal again as Odessan port of Chornomorsk is where the shipments left.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1681105972855463936

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NEW: Missile launches reported towards Odesa oblast from Russia's black sea fleet


Explosions heard in Odesa oblast. Air defence activity reported.

Loud explosions heard in Odesa

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https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1681087485479116801

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Pretty massive drone attack currently taking place in Odessa

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Edit: Clarified shipment port location

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Interested to see if resumption of use is true with footage of traffic over the actual damaged section rather than random spots supposedly from the bridge and Ministry statements.

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This appears to confirm that traffic has indeed resumed over the right hand side of the Kerch bridge. You can see some of the same damaged structure from other footage and the car clearly goes down a ramp. Curious to see if this is a PR stunt or how they will operate the bridge until the more damage side can be fixed.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1681111874157391872 - Video

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Holy shite, they have actually just put down a ramp and are having people drive over the displaced section.

The section on the right that while not in the water, clearly has severe structural damage to the underside, is shifted off its supports and is no longer straight.

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I will happily wear the moniker of keyboard warrior if I can have one of these.

https://twitter.com/palpeet/status/1681015770824822784 - Video

So, if Russia launches an offensive in the far east, what are the expectations? Will it be successful?

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1681144022029545472

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Ukrainian Officials as well as the Deputy Minister of Defense, Hanna Maliar are reporting that they have begun to observe a Large Buildup of Russian Forces in the Kharkiv Region near the City of Kupyansk which consist of roughly 100,000 Troops alongside 900 Tanks, 555 Artillery Pieces, and 370 Multiple-Launch Rockets Systems, they are also reporting the Deployment of Russian Support Assets including Fixed-Wing and Helicopter Aircraft towards the Frontline in the Region; these Officials have stated this may be in preparation for a Major Offensive on the City of Kharkiv that will be done in an attempt to “Draw” Ukrainian Forces away from their Counteroffensive in the South.

There have been “Rumors” regarding this Buildup for almost a week now but this is the 1st time that Ukrainian Officials have stated that it is actually ongoing, however I would still wait for some kind of Confirmation from U.S. or at least the Western Intelligence Community before fully believing this.

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Good thread on this from Tatarigami, worth reading the comments where there is some decent back and forth.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1680989729599242245

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The recent counteroffensive in the Torske-Kupyansk axis has come as a surprise to many. However, I had previously written about their preparations for this counteroffensive almost a month ago.

Currently, the Russians are conducting extensive training of new motorized units in the Soutern military district. In order to strengthen our troops, we will need additional weaponry and improve training conditions

I don't mean to doom, but it is important for analysts, politicians and military observers to take these warnings seriously. By doing so, we can effectively prioritize obtaining the necessary armament for Ukraine, as well as exert pressure on our own MoD to address internal issues

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If the build up is as large as claimed then that is a significant amount of combat power that could pose serious problems if used correctly but could also become a double edged sword if they don't if they lose substantial amounts of equipment and manpower while at the same time Ukraine achieves success further south.

Most likely they want to take pressure off the Southern front, as Tatarigami puts it:

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I think it's just a part of their Active Defense approach - hold defenses to attrit technologically superior opponent while training new forces to launch a counter-offensive, when assaulting forces are exhausted. They are just following the doctrine and wait for an opportunity.

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If a breakthrough becomes successful I would expect to see a drive down towards Sloviansk/Kramatorsk as these are quite important logistically and would mean the troops further east around Siversk and south to Bahkmut face encirclement, especially if the Russians can simultaneously push north west through Toretsk towards Druzhkivka

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 July 2023

Over the last week, fighting has continued in multiple sectors of the front, with both sides achieving marginal advances in different areas.

In the north-east, Russian forces have attempted to push west through forests west of Kremina. Ukraine continues to resource significant effort around Russian-held Bakhmut. Here Russian forces are likely fragile but holding for now. Further south in Donetsk Oblast, especially around Avdiivka, Russian forces continue to attempt local assaults, with little success.

In the south, Ukraine continues to attack on at least two axes, but is unlikely to have yet broken into Russia's primary defensive lines. In this area, Russia has likely implemented a shell-rationing regime for artillery in an attempt to preserve its critical indirect fire capability. In Kherson Oblast, Ukraine maintains a small bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River near the ruined Antonivsky Bridge which is an added challenge for Russian commanders who are likely concerned about the vulnerability of their south-western flank.