re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Olga is on state TV whinging about the bridge.

YT

Here's another post this afternoon from Two Majors, showing the impact of the Kerch bombing on Russian morale:

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There is understanding, but I want cold revenge

After two strikes on the bridge, the Kremlin, the Moscow region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the Graivoron and Shebekino checkpoints, the DRG attacks in the Bryansk Region, the raids on the Crimea, Engels, the Rostov Region and the Krasnodar Territory, the population of Russia has long understood that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not able to "eat" Russia , so he tries to “bite”.

This makes it no less painful and annoying that the enraged people of the neighboring country will be photographed against the background of new stamps with regular shots of the newly damaged Crimean Bridge, which, like many other goals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are iconic symbols of Russia.

The military expediency of such strikes as against the dome of the Kremlin is negligible, but important in the information space. First of all, it is important for the enemy after the failure of the "counterattack", the NATO summit and many other successes of Russia. The same Bakhmut, the capture of which the First Channel no longer promotes, is the merit of our country, our Army, albeit a very specific formation - the Wagner PMC.

The people of Russia are far from stupid, as some elites who own the information agenda think. Critical thinking has already been developed in terms of dispersing the CIPSO panic, the real damage and consequences of enemy sabotage are adequately assessed.

But that doesn't make it easier on the soul. Because a significant part of the enemy's successes is the result of the lack of personnel decisions, softness, incorrect information of the Center about the real situation, smoothing corners and beautiful reports. Do you think that the Supreme Commander was not informed after the first terrorist attack on the bridge "... about the measures taken to ensure ...". It seems to us that they reported, and very cheerfully.

Nevertheless, the Russian people are patient and understand that there will be no change of elites until the end of the war around the Supreme. So all the efforts of the CIPSO to ignite the country from the inside are worthless. Many even looked at the rebellion of PMC Wagner as a showdown between two vassals of one overlord. Then the meeting at the Supreme only confirmed this.

We got the impression that our people want revenge. Cold, accurate, hard blows to the very center of the enemy. With the liquidation of all these Zelensky, arrest, Budanov and others like them. In response to all the "swindles", deceptions, "driving by the nose", non-fulfillment of "grain deals".

And our country has means of destruction for this, even if those that Medvedev writes so menacingly about in telegrams will not be used.

I would like to watch the collapse of Ukrainian statehood, the destruction of the Verkhovna Rada, the office of the President of Ukraine, all bridges, ports and airports without pathos of the general in glasses about "retaliation strikes". Quiet, no hysterics.

Watch and smoke into the night, realizing that the era of agreements and games of international diplomacy for the sake of the oligarchy is already over.

The Supreme Commander gave instructions to the Ministry of Defense. Let's look at the performance and understand how much

the war will be long.

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Some Vehicles have begun to move across the Kerch Strait Bridge tonight as Russian Authorities are attempting to Restore at least Partial-Traffic Flow.

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LINK

And what will they fight with? Rusted T-34's?

If Ukraine had any sort of modern air force and not stitched together Russian relics they wouldn't be near the positions they are now.

All that is just drivel.

I want to talk a bit about what I still consider to be the "main axis" for Ukrainian strategic purposes: the Velyka Novosilka axis, which Russians call the Vremivsky Ridge axis.

Here's today's map of the area from @NOELreports. I took his map and drew in a red line the approximate location of the main Russian fortification, the "Surovikin line," as they call it (after their now-possibly-arrested former commander who first ordered the defensive fortifications in the area).





Today, Ukraine took more of the village of Staromaiorske, and there are intense battles going on for Pryyutne. Once Ukraine takes Staromaiorske, then they will take Urozhaine, which is just on the other side of the small Mokri Yaly River.

Taking and clearing those villages may take another week, perhaps more. Staromlynivka then becomes the next critical objective. If you look at a topographical map, you can see that there's an altitude difference of something like 215 feet from the heights just west of the city down to the city itself.





If we're honest about the rates of Ukrainian advance, it'll take Ukraine another two weeks or so to get to Staromlynivka, and then at least another week to take it.

So, optimistically for Ukraine, it's a month from now that they take Staromlynivka. Then, it will still take them at least two more weeks to advance up to that main fortified line.

That would make our Labor Day weekend about when Ukraine could realistically hope to bring in the Challengers, Strykers, and all the rest of their reserves to begin the assault on that main line (they might even have Abrams by then).

If and when Ukraine manages to take and cross that main line, there's not another one behind it. If that happens, Ukraine will succeed in marching to the Sea of Azov and cutting the land bridge.

That means that, even though Ukraine's pace on this axis is slow, they still have time to succeed in their strategic objectives before the mud season makes maneuver difficult. But not with a lot of time to spare. And only if their ammo stocks can be maintained for the next several months, because the Ukrainian offensive will culminate if they can't continue to use artillery to push Russia back.

Large drone attack ongoing in Odessa at the moment

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The question is does one trust the assessment when there is a significant political reason to keep traffic moving?

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Well, in many cases, they're already dumb enough to be taking beach vacations in a war zone, so ...

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Why wouldn’t the Russian’s be using the slow pace of advance to construct more fortifications and fall back lines? I wouldn’t assume the Russian defensive lines will remain static throughout this summer and fall.

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They are almost certainly building additional fortifications, but I don't think that they can build the kind of multi-layer fortifications that we are talking about close enough to the other line to matter and far enough away not to get destroyed by Ukrainian artillery while doing it.

We're talking about rows of dragons teeth separated by a deep ditch, with a reinforced, mostly-covered trench behind that with gun emplacements.

If Russia tried to build another such line now, they would either have to build it inside Ukrainian artillery range (and get destroyed), or they would have to build it so close to the Sea of Azov as to be of little value. If and when Ukraine gets the coastal road in artillery range, then it's all over.

Besides, these fortifications were built back when the frontline was static and Russian troops had the time to build them. Russian troops in the area are rather busy now, and there aren't reserves.

Finally, Ukraine is now fighting uphill in this area. If and when they can breach that main fortified line, they will quickly approach the highest part of the whole area. It would give Ukrainian artillery a huge advantage at that point.

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Are we sure about this?

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But to answer your question, no I am not sure, lol. You get what you pay for on this site. I am not a military expert, just a guy trying to figure things out.