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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/18/23 at 3:04 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
Posted on 7/18/23 at 3:04 pm to AnotherWin4LSU
quote:
How is Ukraine going to pay for that military? Mail order brides and H2A farm workers won’t be able to send enough money back to Ukraine for the kind of military that they need.
They weren't going to get the brass ring and get NATO membership, but they did get a lot of guaranteed cooperation and funding for the future.
Poland has long been where Ukrainians earned a living. Their "tech" industry is doing quite well and has gotten better over the last year and a half. There is a lo of industry in the west side, including mining especially of titanium, used by the world in medicine, power plants and chemical processes, not counting military uses.
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Posted on 7/18/23 at 3:11 pm to GOP_Tiger
@DefMon3
This is right up against the eastern edge of where the reservoir used to be. Def Mon posted his map, but I decided to draw a blue line on a different map and show how this advance works with the Ukrainian push west from Pyatykhatky towards Zherebyanky.
quote:
It seems like UA forces have crossed the "river" in Kam'yans'ke.
The "river" is more like dry ditch, but it has still been the divider between troops since RuAF tried to cross it during the winter.
This is right up against the eastern edge of where the reservoir used to be. Def Mon posted his map, but I decided to draw a blue line on a different map and show how this advance works with the Ukrainian push west from Pyatykhatky towards Zherebyanky.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 3:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It seems like UA forces have crossed the "river" in Kam'yans'ke.
Does this mean that the Ukes have come up upon the main Russian defense line in that area yet?
Posted on 7/18/23 at 3:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Postwar, Ukraine will be joining the European Union, and the EU (along with many other nations) have budgeted vast sums for Ukraine's reconstruction. Ukraine is a large country, with significant natural resources and a well-educated population. It's economy will take off as it aligns with the EU, just as has happened in the Baltics, Poland, Romania, etc.
This has been linked before I believe but will provide it again.
While it will need Ukraine to reduce its corruption issues and substantial investment and development, these sorts of resources will go a long way to securing its economic future.
It is also a likely way in the event of Ukraine pushing Russia out that they will reimburse all the assistance they have been given from abroad.
https://www.mei.edu/publications/ukraines-critical-minerals-and-europes-energy-transition-motivation-russian-aggression
quote:
Ukraine, in turn, is also among the most richly endowed European countries when it comes to rare earth metals and lithium reserves, with estimates of the value of these deposits ranging from $3 trillion-$11.5 trillion.
This one delves deeper into Russian motivations for wanting eastern Ukraine.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/28/ukraine-war-russia-resources-energy-oil-gas-commodities-agriculture/
Posted on 7/18/23 at 4:06 pm to doubleb
quote:
Does this mean that the Ukes have come up upon the main Russian defense line in that area yet?
No, this advance (the purple arrow that I marked at the left of the below map, is in an area with multiple layers of defense -- I don't think there's a "main" line.
I don't think that Ukraine is really trying to push through here all the way to Melitopol. I think that the objective is to get close enough to wreck Russian logistics through the South.
In contrast, the Ukrainian advance on the Velyka Novosilka axis, marked with an arrow to the right of this figure, is in an area with only one main Russian defense line.
Here's where you can see this map: LINK. You have to click to show the Russian defense lines.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 4:12 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
They can be seen with the GUR-issue Sig 516
I wonder if Sig and the US military has gotten a few of the new Sig rifles that shoot the 6.8x51mm rounds over to Ukraine to get a good field test of how these things are going to perform under stress for our guys when they become the standard issue.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 4:14 pm to doubleb
Not going by Brady Africk's fortification map. While progress is always welcome this means little in my view at this point.
A possible strategy is to roll down the bank of the river using it to protect one flank and then use that to secure river crossings.
From there push faster down the bank and get behind the defensive lines - I am curious how manned those rear lines likely are and if taken before a withdrawal could be made then retreating Russians would not be in a fun place.
This is all highly hypothetical and the slow progress of Ukraine's movement forward thus far pretty much occludes that happening at this stage.
Edit: Clarity
A possible strategy is to roll down the bank of the river using it to protect one flank and then use that to secure river crossings.
From there push faster down the bank and get behind the defensive lines - I am curious how manned those rear lines likely are and if taken before a withdrawal could be made then retreating Russians would not be in a fun place.
This is all highly hypothetical and the slow progress of Ukraine's movement forward thus far pretty much occludes that happening at this stage.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/18/23 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 7/18/23 at 4:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The big unknown (at least to me) is what Russian inventory of artillery pieces looks like now. We can see them pulling T-55s out of storage and know that they are running out of tanks, but I don't think we (meaning the OSINT community) have the same visibility on artillery stocks.
One thing I have noticed in the past few weeks is that there is growing footage of towed artillery, particularly in transport columns being hit by Ukraine where previously the bulk was SPGs and Grads.
Whether this is intentional information control, a temporary depletion while Russia moves new equipment up, or an indicator that Ukraine has successfully attrited their better platforms is hard to say at this point but worth keeping an eye on over the next month to see if the trend continues.
In tandem with this are reports of "shell rationing" by Russians and that Ukraine is gaining a real tube advantage, at least in the south which is another indicator that Ukraine's month or so of logistics and artillery strikes is having an effect.
Of course the counter to this is the claimed equipment build up in the north is where Russia is concentrating its power, though as yet this is still largely unconfirmed.
Edit: Quote
This post was edited on 7/18/23 at 5:05 pm
Posted on 7/18/23 at 4:52 pm to OutsideObserver
Rybar's comments on Bakhmut: LINK
Ukraine has been in this position around Klischiivka for over a week now. I would have thought that they would have already gone ahead and made a big push to take the town, but controlling the heights above town does allow them to attrit troops there.
quote:
(July 18, 2023)
Fierce fighting continues on the flanks of Bakhmut. Russian artillerymen together with Airborne Troops repel enemy attacks in the Berkhivka area.
However, in the area of Klishchiivka the combined assault groups of the AFU 3rd and 5th Assault Brigades as a result of heavy fighting and at the cost of heavy losses managed to get a grip on the adjacent heights.
The AFU continue their raids in small groups. The rotation of AFU personnel is regularly carried out, which allows them to continue the tactic of "flesh assault" without the support of armored vehicles.
! The AFU control over tactical heights repeatedly complicates the task of defending Klishchiivka. In addition, the return of lost positions by Russian units is hampered by the same problem as on the Zaporizhzhia front - lack of rotation and reinforcements. The delay in resolving the issue of supporting the defending units of the Russian Armed Forces in this area threatens with unfortunate consequences.
Ukraine has been in this position around Klischiivka for over a week now. I would have thought that they would have already gone ahead and made a big push to take the town, but controlling the heights above town does allow them to attrit troops there.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 4:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
How is Ukraine going to pay for that military?
Oh, this just popped up on my Twitter feed. And this is just the EU as a whole -- individual nations will contribute much more.
EU plans €20B fund to stock Ukraine’s military for years
quote:
The EU will propose a dedicated fund to keep Ukraine’s military stocked for the next four years at a cost of up to €20 billion, according to five diplomats familiar with the plan.
The proposal would not involve the EU directly paying for Ukraine’s weapons. Instead, Brussels would help countries cover their own costs of purchasing and donating items such as ammunition, missiles and tanks. It also would help pay to train Ukrainian soldiers.
It’s an approach the EU adopted shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. But the new proposal, drafted by the EU’s diplomatic service, would effectively turbocharge the strategy.
quote:
It also comes on top of an EU proposal to earmark €50 billion in non-military assistance to Ukraine between 2024 and 2027.
And the US will give Ukraine a lot, lot more after the war, when we can train Ukrainians without a time crunch, and when timid diplomats aren't worried about provoking Russia.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
Claims of a significant UV strike attempt towards Crimea tonight.
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1681328017455366145
The last significant UV strike towards Crimea was directly before the latest Kerch bridge hit, will be interesting to see if Ukraine is attempting a repeat.
Edit: Clarity
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1681328017455366145
quote:
1/ Russian Telegram channels are reporting a large-scale Ukrainian UAV strike on Crimea overnight - "five UAV groups (32 UAVs total) from the Shkolny airfield in Odessa took off in several directions to targets - Russian air defense units destroyed 17 drones and..." https://t.me/rybar/49809
2/ "...another 15 drones were suppressed by electronic warfare on approach to the Crimea at Capes Peschany, Priboyny and Tarkhankut. The total number of affected UAVs was at least 32."
The last significant UV strike towards Crimea was directly before the latest Kerch bridge hit, will be interesting to see if Ukraine is attempting a repeat.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 7/18/23 at 5:10 pm
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:15 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
You ever figure out which other countries are being actively invaded by a foreign power while the US sits idly by despite promising protection?
quote:No it wasn't. You responded with Syria and fricking Iraq when pressed to provide the names of the "multiple" (your claim) countries that are currently being invaded that the USA "pledged" to support in the event of an invasion. You're lying again, Roger, which is becoming quite the nasty habit for you. And regardless of your inflated sense of your own intellect, you're not smart enough to get away with it.
Answered immediately. Youre weeks behind.
This post was edited on 7/18/23 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:29 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Ukraine has been in this position around Klischiivka for over a week now. I would have thought that they would have already gone ahead and made a big push to take the town,
Agree. Seems like Ukraine could bring in a bigger force and plow through if this is an area Russia hasn’t laid mines all over the place like they have in other areas
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
We Americans have been burned by trying to build society in Afghanistan and Iraq. But unlike them, Ukraine largely aligns with our values, and it's not full of uneducated simpletons like Afghanistan or ethnic conflict like Iraq.
“Ukraine largely aligns with ARE values”
There’s so much wrong with this post, and this entire thread in general, but this shite right here takes the cake.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:37 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
No it wasn't. You responded with Syria and fricking Iraq when pressed to provide the names of the "multiple" (your claim) countries that are currently being invaded that the USA "pledged" to support in the event of an invasion. You're lying again, Roger, which is becoming quite the nasty habit for you. And regardless of your inflated sense of your own intellect, you're not smart enough to get away with it.
My favorite part of that thread was when people took him to task for his lie he came back and said he at least had the courage to make up a lie and try to pass it off as fact.
Like what? Lmao
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:39 pm to Kurt Eichenwald
quote:
“Ukraine largely aligns with ARE values” There’s so much wrong with this post, and this entire thread in general, but this shite right here takes the cake.
Did you just insert your own typo into someone else’s post and then criticize them for your typo?
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:50 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
You're lying again, Roger, which is becoming quite the nasty habit for you. And regardless of your inflated sense of your own intellect, you're not smart enough to get away with it.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:51 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Did you just insert your own typo into someone else’s post and then criticize them for your typo?
I’m pretty sure he was criticizing the actual quote, and that the typo was incidental.
Dunno if that makes it better or worse.
Posted on 7/18/23 at 5:52 pm to lostinbr
Certainly a possibility. And yea I’m not if that’s better or worse lol
Posted on 7/18/23 at 6:06 pm to Kurt Eichenwald
quote:
We Americans have been burned by trying to build society in Afghanistan and Iraq. But unlike them, Ukraine largely aligns with our values, and it's not full of uneducated simpletons like Afghanistan or ethnic conflict like Iraq.
quote:
“Ukraine largely aligns with ARE values”
There’s so much wrong with this post, and this entire thread in general, but this shite right here takes the cake.
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