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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/12/23 at 9:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 7/12/23 at 9:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1679228466795880450
quote:
First video of Swedish Stridsvagn 122 tanks preparing for battle against the Russian Army in Ukraine
2
Posted on 7/12/23 at 9:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
As a number of people have pointed out, Gen. Popov organized the Russian resistance on the Tokmak axis, which has generally been regarded as very capable.
He will be fine, just creating some distance between him and his bosses just like Prigozhin, they will be aligned with Putin and blaming the brass for the whole fiasco just before executing them on a live stream, its the only way Vlad can pull his nuts out the fire.
Posted on 7/12/23 at 9:04 pm to Chromdome35
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1679094531004813312
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1679213351811837960
quote:
BREAKING:
Handelsblatt reports that German government has decided to terminate its agreement with Poland to set up a repair center for damaged Ukrainian Leopard 2 tanks in the country.
The German side argues that the Polish price demands were too high.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1679213351811837960
quote:
Witold Waszczykowski, Poland’s Foreign Minister between 2015-2018, has stated that Poland should send all its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as Germany is too unreliable when it comes to providing spare parts and repairs for the tanks.
Poland has 236 Leopard tanks left.
(1/2)
Poland wouldn’t be able to send all the tanks immediately, but will have to wait for the delivery of 366 Abrams tanks from the U.S. and 180 K2 tanks from South Korea.
These will arrive in batches arriving over the coming 3 years.
(2/3)
Poland could be able to send more Leopard tanks to Ukraine in batches as the American and South Korean tanks start arriving in Poland in large numbers.
Polish military experts have stated that Poland long-term goal is to get rid of the Leos in order to operate just 2 MBTs
(3/3)
This post was edited on 7/12/23 at 9:08 pm
Posted on 7/12/23 at 9:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
You know who's smiling today? Yevgeny Prigozhin, that's who.
I’m watching for verification of Girkin’s comments about a shift in control after the Wagner revolt. This may be evidence of factions lining up.
Posted on 7/12/23 at 10:20 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
I am on Zelensky's side in this, Wallace, in these comments, comes across as a snobbish colonial Brit who expects to have his arse kissed.
I agree. I understand his very real frustration with NATO. The NATO position on all this is quite problematic, and puts his country in an impossible position.
NATO says Ukraine cannot join NATO until the war ends, and the war cannot end with Russian victory. And yet NATO has withheld certain weapons systems that could more quickly end the war and achieve the desired result. These two things are hard to square.
NATO saying Ukraine cannot join until the war concludes also creates a scenario where Russia has no incentive to let the conflict ever truly end. So long as Russia keeps this conflict at least in a simmer, they keep Ukraine out of NATO.
View that from the perspective of a man seeing his country destroyed, and I get it.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 4:40 am to ned nederlander
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 July 2023
In June 2023, there have been several reports of Russian forces using antiquated armoured vehicles packed with several tonnes of explosives as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). The crew likely bail out of the vehicle after setting it on its course.
Most Russian VBIED cases have been reported around Marinka, near Donetsk city, and started days after Chechen units reinforced the area: there is a realistic possibility that Chechen forces are pioneering the tactic.
There is a heritage of Chechen fighters being skilled in IED use, dating back to the Chechen Wars from the 1990s. Chechens fighting for Ukraine were also reported to have made similar VBIEDs in January 2023.
Most of Russia's VBIEDs have almost certainly detonated before they reached their target through a combination of anti-tank mines and direct fire, bringing into question the viability of the capability. However, these VBIEDs cause extremely large explosions, which are still likely to have a psychological effect on defending forces.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 July 2023
In June 2023, there have been several reports of Russian forces using antiquated armoured vehicles packed with several tonnes of explosives as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). The crew likely bail out of the vehicle after setting it on its course.
Most Russian VBIED cases have been reported around Marinka, near Donetsk city, and started days after Chechen units reinforced the area: there is a realistic possibility that Chechen forces are pioneering the tactic.
There is a heritage of Chechen fighters being skilled in IED use, dating back to the Chechen Wars from the 1990s. Chechens fighting for Ukraine were also reported to have made similar VBIEDs in January 2023.
Most of Russia's VBIEDs have almost certainly detonated before they reached their target through a combination of anti-tank mines and direct fire, bringing into question the viability of the capability. However, these VBIEDs cause extremely large explosions, which are still likely to have a psychological effect on defending forces.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 5:31 am to Chromdome35
quote:
BREAKING:
Handelsblatt reports that German government has decided to terminate its agreement with Poland to set up a repair center for damaged Ukrainian Leopard 2 tanks in the country.
The German side argues that the Polish price demands were too high.
One of the Polish accounts I check regularly, and his associate, have some insight into the matter from their side as they have been involved in the process.
The gist, as I read it given the crap translation, is that the increased repair costs are mainly due to not being able to get spares from Germany so Poland has to fabricate them, or in some cases wait for parts only Germany has the technology for, as Poland had extensive experience in this issue already they factored it into the repair costs.
Through their experience and production ability it also sounds like Poland has offered to assist Germany in production of parts but Germany didn't want to use Polish sub contractors.
Going through the thread comments the impression is the Leopard 2 has not been a happy purchase for Poland due to supply on the German end for quite some time, hence why they are want to divest them for the Abrams and K2 which has made the Germans even more difficult to get parts off.
Apologies on translation, it isn't brilliant.
https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1679095428019638275
quote:
Ocho starts again: not "overestimated" but made more realistic based on the fact that we have experience with repairs of a quarter of a thousand Leopard 2A4 / A5 in the Polish Armed Forces. As a result, the Polish industry has real experience with repairs in the amount of several hundred cars, and the need to make extra money in the conditions of the manufacture of missing components. Experience with the Polish Armed Forces also shows that before dismantling the vehicle, it is not known what the scope of work will be. Because, for example, the sides of the hull in the area of ??torsion bar sockets may crack. Which requires very expensive welding work, the technology of which ONLY Germany has. Already on this one thing, the repair of a given hull is more or less 2x in the back in relation to the cost estimate. And there are so many flowers.
Just a wise Pole after the damage once did not think that "somehow it will be" (because it was supposed to be with the 2PL program and it was not finally ...) He only calculated with the assumption of real experiences that he already has.
And the Germans have in relation to ours the manner of a rejected bride who was not wanted. They hurt Abrams and K2 in the Polish Armed Forces and this is also visible in business relations. Germans are lagging behind with repairs and production of Leopards 2. Queues for 5-7 years (!) There are plants in Poland (WZM SA) with experience and know-how of repairs certified by the Germans. Despite the occupancy, there are still free production capacities, but it does not seem that the Germans are willing to hire Polish companies as subcontractors.
It's a shame because it would be a win-win...
https://twitter.com/DawidKamizela/status/1679084722402500608
quote:
Well, let's wait for official confirmation, but I'd be very surprised if it ended differently.
After our recent purchasing decisions, the Germans have no interest in helping us, and we also see no point in it.
Pity.
Edit: Fixed link
This post was edited on 7/13/23 at 5:36 am
Posted on 7/13/23 at 5:38 am to Chromdome35
quote:
First video of Swedish Stridsvagn 122 tanks preparing for battle against the Russian Army in Ukraine
I saw a version without a water mark so my eye didn't focus on them initially and the camo on the parked ones fooled my shite eyes for a few seconds as I focused on the one that drives in - looks bad arse.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 7:45 am to OutsideObserver
@OSINTtechnical
More evidence at the link. Some people have claimed that Ukraine will be unable to take Russia's main fortifications. Here's the first proof otherwise.
quote:
Russian footage appears to confirm that Ukrainian forces were able to occupy portions of the main Russian defensive trenchline on the northeast flank of Robotyne.
Both @DefMon3 and @bradyafr show that this is the main defensive fortification on Robotyne's eastern flank.
More evidence at the link. Some people have claimed that Ukraine will be unable to take Russia's main fortifications. Here's the first proof otherwise.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:10 am to GOP_Tiger
LINK
Live view of Ukrainian commanders right now:
EDIT: It's supposed to rain tonight and tomorrow along the southern front. The inability of drones to fly impacts both sides, but I think that we have enough evidence at this point to say that it's an advantage for Ukraine to be able to remove mines unseen by the eye in the sky.
quote:
United States has already delivered cluster munitions to Ukraine, Tavria grouping commander General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi has confirmed in a comment to CNN.
"We just got them, we haven't used them yet, but they can radically change [the battlefield]," Tarnavskyi said.
Live view of Ukrainian commanders right now:
EDIT: It's supposed to rain tonight and tomorrow along the southern front. The inability of drones to fly impacts both sides, but I think that we have enough evidence at this point to say that it's an advantage for Ukraine to be able to remove mines unseen by the eye in the sky.
This post was edited on 7/13/23 at 8:16 am
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:34 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
The gist, as I read it given the crap translation, is that the increased repair costs are mainly due to not being able to get spares from Germany so Poland has to fabricate them, or in some cases wait for parts only Germany has the technology for, as Poland had extensive experience in this issue already they factored it into the repair costs.
quote:
Experience with the Polish Armed Forces also shows that before dismantling the vehicle, it is not known what the scope of work will be. Because, for example, the sides of the hull in the area of ??torsion bar sockets may crack. Which requires very expensive welding work, the technology of which ONLY Germany has. Already on this one thing, the repair of a given hull is more or less 2x in the back in relation to the cost estimate.
People who have owned German cars:
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:50 am to lostinbr
Bulgarian politician Ivo Mirchev:
quote:
Today we are submitting a decision to the parliament for new military aid to Ukraine. It will consist of about 100 armored vehicles, mostly APCs from the warehouses of the Ministry of the Interior.
The APCs in question were produced in the 1960s and 1970s and were enlisted in internal troops (today's gendarmerie) in the 1980s, around the Revival process.
Fortunately, the armored vehicles were never used, some of them are technically defective and no longer necessary for the Ministry of Internal Affairs. For 40 years, they collected dust in warehouses and bore only the costs of their protection and maintenance.
By providing armored vehicles to Ukraine, we not only do not impair the combat capability of our army, but we must demand compensation from the US. It has already become clear that at the end of 2022, the USA has offered Bulgaria $200 million in the form of American air defense systems, if our country provides old Soviet weapons to Ukraine. Radev's caretaker government did not take advantage of this opportunity, thereby missing a chance to improve the defense capabilities of our army.
In the last 16 months, Ukraine has purchased weapons and ammunition from our military factories for about BGN 5 billion. It is expected that by the end of 2023, the amount will reach BGN 7 billion. earn (directly and indirectly) over 100,000 Bulgarians.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 8:55 am to ned nederlander
quote:
NATO saying Ukraine cannot join until the war concludes also creates a scenario where Russia has no incentive to let the conflict ever truly end. So long as Russia keeps this conflict at least in a simmer, they keep Ukraine out of NATO.
What is the alternative, though?
If you admit them to NATO while the war is ongoing and give them Article 5 protections, aren’t you basically committing to direct war with Russia?
If you admit them to NATO while the war is ongoing and don’t give them Article 5 protections immediately, then what’s the point?
If NATO isn’t prepared to intervene directly, which they pretty clearly are not, I think you can argue that it sets a bad precedent - a NATO member being actively invaded by Russia, without direct intervention, sort of diminishes the alliance IMHO.
I don’t see how there could be any realistic path for Ukraine to join NATO while the war is ongoing. And I don’t think that’s Zelensky’s complaint. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought his issue was more the lack of a clearly defined path after the war.
That being said, I agree that Wallace comes off as a douche in all of this.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:10 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It's supposed to rain tonight and tomorrow along the southern front. The inability of drones to fly impacts both sides, but I think that we have enough evidence at this point to say that it's an advantage for Ukraine to be able to remove mines unseen by the eye in the sky.
Yeah, I believe it was in this thread but I saw an article about the sappers preferring to work in low light like dusk or dawn and under heavy cloud cover to diminish the capability of drones spotting them and being able to put them under fire. That's just one of the little nuances that I would have never thought about until following this war. Especially with haw valuable these drones have become to carry out operations and recon for defense.
Hopefully the Ukrainian sappers have rested up and can clear a decent path to be able to attempt a bigger push after the weather moves out.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:18 am to lostinbr
quote:
I agree that Wallace comes off as a douche in all of this.
Same. He just looks like a child throwing a fit that he didn't personally get the recognition his ego demands he get.
I've heard Zelensky, along with other top military brass in Ukraine, constantly thank all of the Western partners that have given weapons and aid. These people are trying to win a war after their country was invaded for no real reason. Of course Zelensky and his generals are going to ask for the best options to get the job done. They wouldn't be fulfilling their obligations to Ukraine or it's citizens if they weren't asking for these weapons.
Wallace can go cry to someone else about not being thanked enough because I don't think many people give a shite.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 9:48 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Commander of 58th Combined Arms Army of Southern Military District, Major General Ivan Popov (Spartak), wrote down an appeal where he announced his resignation from his post and the reasons for it.
Popov reports that he raised questions about lack of counter-battery combat, artillery reconnaissance stations and supplys, as result, death of Russian soldiers in connection with this.
According to major general, issues raised by him at the highest level led to his lightning resignation in one day.
"Our enemy could not be broken through front of Armed Forces of Russia, we were hit from rear by senior commanders (Alluding to Gerasimov and Shoigu)
Treacherously and vilely decapitating army at most difficult and tense moment," Popov summed up.
Well, it gets worse, waaay worse:
quote:
And this is post from a small russian tg-public. By the way, the information was posted here BEFORE the news with Popov was published.
LINK
Posted on 7/13/23 at 10:24 am to Coeur du Tigre
Boy Russia seems like they're teetering on the road two self destruction. Ukraine isn't doing much better ( see the reporting on the 47th this week) but they are far ahead of Russian with morale and cohesion.
A couple of real pushes by Ukraine could send them off a cliff.
And if that's guy seriously leaked the location hes a dead man. And he might still get killed just for this public outburst.
A couple of real pushes by Ukraine could send them off a cliff.
And if that's guy seriously leaked the location hes a dead man. And he might still get killed just for this public outburst.
This post was edited on 7/13/23 at 10:29 am
Posted on 7/13/23 at 11:01 am to jfan244888
quote:
And if that's guy seriously leaked the location hes a dead man. And he might still get killed just for this public outburst.
You've got it backwards. It was the hotel he was staying at that was hit. The implication is that they tried to take him out.
Posted on 7/13/23 at 11:10 am to GOP_Tiger
200 Russians and Kremlin-appointed leader killed in occupied Tokmak
Iryna Balachuk — Thursday, 13 July 2023, 17:56
Ivan Fedorov, the legitimate mayor of temporarily occupied Melitopol, has said that the Ukrainian Defence Forces killed about 200 Russian occupiers and the Kremlin-appointed puppet leader of the city in Tokmak.
Source: Fedorov on Telegram
Quote from Fedorov: "Our Defence Forces have successfully worked on the occupiers' positions in Tokmak. Intelligence reports that the forging and stamping plant is done [struck – ed.], about 200 Russian invaders along with the city's commandant were killed, and FSB officers are panicking and taking their families out."
Ukrainska Pravda
Iryna Balachuk — Thursday, 13 July 2023, 17:56
Ivan Fedorov, the legitimate mayor of temporarily occupied Melitopol, has said that the Ukrainian Defence Forces killed about 200 Russian occupiers and the Kremlin-appointed puppet leader of the city in Tokmak.
Source: Fedorov on Telegram
Quote from Fedorov: "Our Defence Forces have successfully worked on the occupiers' positions in Tokmak. Intelligence reports that the forging and stamping plant is done [struck – ed.], about 200 Russian invaders along with the city's commandant were killed, and FSB officers are panicking and taking their families out."
Ukrainska Pravda
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