re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Why should we expect Russia to be ok with MORE NATO (American) military on its border?

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Russia should stop doing things that make its neighbors nervous. Then they wouldn't be so eager to join NATO

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Why should we expect Russia to be ok with MORE NATO (American) military on its border?

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I also wonder if the cluster bomb decision is responsible for the recent slower pace of Ukrainian attacks in the south. Ukraine has known that this decision was coming, and they may have slowed down a bit to wait for these cluster shells.

In contrast, the Bakhmut area doesn't face the same problems (mines and extensive fortifications), so Ukraine has been making more progress there.

In fact, there are reports this morning that Ukraine has captured the last key hill overlooking Klischiivka, which would mean that the capture of the town is imminent.

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Without assurance Ukraine will not join NATO, that will never happen. Why should we expect Russia to be ok with MORE NATO (American) military on its border

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Guess the US should be invading Cuba any day now that China is building a base there

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That's the logic here right?

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2) My understanding of the cluster munitions they are receiving is that they come with a failsafe that detonates them after several days to avoid unexploded ordinance issues - how effective is this failsafe?

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The base bleed mechanism reduces the submunition count to 72. Work was budgeted in 2003 to retrofit the M42/M46 grenades with self-destruct fuses to reduce the problem of "dud" submunitions that do not initially explode, but may explode later upon handling. In Vietnam they were known as "firecracker rounds" owing to the rippling detonation of submunitions over a couple of seconds.

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"A single [DPICM] round can achieve a similar or greater operational effect as five or more rounds armed with GMLRS-U [227mm Guided Multiple Launch System artillery rockets with unitary warheads] or other high-explosive warheads," that letter also said.

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In 2008, at the very tail end of President George W. Bush's tenure in office, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates did put a policy into place calling for the elimination of cluster munitions in U.S. inventory with failure rates above one percent. For nearly a decade after, the U.S. military was steadily moving away from cluster munitions more generally in favor of alternative options. The policy was suspended in 2017 under Preisdent Donald Trump. Congress has since blocked the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions that do not meet the one percent standard, but the Biden administration officials are of the view this can be waived by citing vital national security interests, according to a report from The Washington Post.

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It is also worth noting that the U.S. military has already publicly acknowledged the inclusion of cluster munition artillery shells loaded with scatterable anti-tank mines (which also present a threat to other kinds of vehicles) in previous aid packages for Ukraine. It is unclear why the 155mm Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) rounds did not prompt the same kind of policy debate.

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The failure rates of different DPICM munition types are a matter of significant debate. One U.S. Army study in 2000 determined that up to an average of 14 percent of at least some lots of these submunitions could malfunction. Dud rates as high as 20 percent have been documented during past conflicts.

Issues in particular with the sensitivity and reliability of the fuzes in certain DPICM submunitions, as well as older ICM submunitions, especially when presented with certain environmental factors, are well established.

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“Cluster munition” means a conventional munition that is designed to
disperse or release explosive submunitions each weighing less than 20 kilograms, and
includes those explosive submunitions. It does not mean the following:
(a) A munition or submunition designed to dispense flares, smoke,
pyrotechnics or chaff; or a munition designed exclusively for an air
defence role;
(b) A munition or submunition designed to produce electrical or electronic
effects;
(c) A munition that, in order to avoid indiscriminate area effects and the
risks posed by unexploded submunitions, has all of the following
characteristics:
(i) Each munition contains fewer than ten explosive submunitions;
(ii) Each explosive submunition weighs more than four kilograms;
(iii) Each explosive submunition is designed to detect and engage a
single target object;
(iv) Each explosive submunition is equipped with an electronic selfdestruction mechanism;
(v) Each explosive submunition is equipped with an electronic selfdeactivating feature;
3. “Explosive submunition” means a conventional munition that in order to
perform its task is dispersed or released by a cluster munition and is designed to
function by detonating an explosive charge prior to, on or after impact;

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Key Takeaways:

Five hundred days ago Russia launched an unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 8. US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl noted on July 7 that current Ukrainian operations across the front are the "beginning of the middle” of the wider counteroffensive and that it is therefore "too early to judge” how the counteroffensive is going.

The United States announced a new military aid package for Ukraine that includes cluster munitions on July 7.

Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed 131/136 drone and missile strikes against Ukraine's industrial and infrastructure facilities overnight from July 7 to 8.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Ukraine “deserves NATO membership” ahead of the July 11 to 12 NATO summit in a press conference on July 7 in Istanbul with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky returned to Ukraine from Turkey with five Ukrainian commanders involved in the defense of Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast whom Ukraine, Russia, and Turkey had previously agreed would remain in Turkey until the end of the war.

Ukrainian intelligence indicated that Russian authorities are capitalizing on the fear of a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to drive out Ukrainian personnel and increase the Russian presence at the ZNPP ahead of the upcoming NATO summit.

A Wagner commander stated that the Wagner Group will go to Belarus after completing rest and recuperation through August 2023. The status of the deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin is unclear, and the deal may be in flux.

The Kremlin may be attempting to ensure that it has control over Wagner leadership and personnel in Africa and the Middle East.

A prominent Russian milblogger speculated that the Russian military leadership may be in the process of making the decision to replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, suggesting that the implications of the June 24 Wagner Group rebellion may still be having ramifications on the highest echelons of military command.

Russian authorities reportedly prevented former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin from holding a talk about the Wagner Group rebellion.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border and south of Kreminna, and Ukraine likely continues to conduct strikes on Russian concentration areas deep within the rear of occupied Luhansk Oblast.

Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts on July 8.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly observed combat training of Russian contract servicemen at the Southern Military District (SMD) training grounds on July 8, likely in an attempt to favorably portray Russian formalization efforts and incentivize personnel recruitment.

The Ukrainian government has indicated that Russian occupation authorities struggle to compensate staff in critical industries, resulting in staffing shortages that could hinder the Russian war effort.

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