re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area and continued counteroffensive operations in at least three other sectors of the front on July 7.

Russian forces have reportedly committed almost the entirety of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine.

The deployment of almost the entirety of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces and extensive SMD elements to the frontline in southern Ukraine suggests that Russian defenses in southern Ukraine may be brittle.

Russia temporarily disconnected at least partially from the global internet during a test of its “sovereign internet” system overnight on July 4-5.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against rear areas in Ukraine on June 6 to 7.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border. Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in the Bakhmut area between July 6-7.

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a renewed wave of counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 7.

The Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) continues to restrict international monitors’ access to the facility.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly drafted a law that would expand the list of gross disciplinary offenses within the Russian Armed Forces.

Russian authorities continue to portray themselves as responsible custodians of Ukrainian children in an effort to discredit Ukraine while continuing to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia.

A Belarusian military official stated that Wagner Group forces have not yet decided to deploy to Belarus while giving a press tour of the speculated Wagner Group base in Asipovichy on July 7.

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They don't like NATO membership for the Ukraine? They should play a game of hide and go frick themselves. They don't get to determine it. They want to start a war over that, that's Russia's fault, and no one else's.

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Smaller powers can only destroy a couple cities.

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Smaller powers like Pakistan and India lobbing nukes at each other? That could just as easily lead to a global catastrophe.

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Yeah but that doesn’t really have anything to do with blackmailing the US into anything.

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It was an example of a nuclear exchange between "minor powers" being a little less inconsequential than you're predicting. Come on man.

Some unconfirmed, but backed up by sources, reports of morale issues in the Russian ranks.

Sources linked in the twitter post
https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1677373544672419861

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After heavy losses at Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, a Russian elite airborne brigade notorious for atrocities at Bucha was forced to make a chaotic retreat under fire, suffering more casualties, and some survivors were detained for refusing orders to immediately return to combat, Russian open-source site CIT says citing Russian reports

A powerful Ukrainian assault forced Russia's 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade to retreat on foot without an evacuation plan, only to be given "illegally issued orders" to go right back to the front, the Russian troops complained in a video appeal

Russian draftees in another unit at Klishchiivka - the 1442nd Regiment - also refused to fight after suffering heavy losses under Ukrainian fire while being sent into combat without ammunition, their relatives said in an appeal. Some of the refuseniks were reportedly being held in a pit

The Russian airborne troops said they were "fraudulently" sent to Klishchiivka, where they spent 15 days under mortar fire without Russian artillery or air support or communications (which had been shut down by Ukrainian electronic warfare)

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones reportedly zipped around freely overhead underhindered by Russian electronic warfare

After refusing to fight, they said they were threatened with being forced to join a "Storm-Z" unit of ex-convicts, notorious for being deployed in Russia's virtually suicidal so-called "meat assaults"

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·After heavy losses at Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, a Russian elite airborne brigade notorious for atrocities at Bucha was forced to make a chaotic retreat under fire, suffering more casualties, and some survivors were detained for refusing orders to immediately return to… Show more
????Ukraine Resists Russian Genocide... Yeah Again
@ArmedMaidan
Following bad losses from Ukraine's counteroffensive at Novodarivka in Zaporizhya (just 40 remain of their 106-man company), Russia's 394th Regiment troops refuse orders to be sent back to the Novodarivka area with no artillery support or heavy equipment

They complain in a video appeal that they have to buy their own ammo, had no provisions, water or artillery support, haven't been paid since January, had no leave in 10 months, that medics have no drugs or bandages and that the wounded aren't evacuated for a long time

"We even blew up on our own mines"

LINK

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https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1677385277080236032

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Ukrainian Defenders advanced in Bakhmut direction in the southern flank. In several areas they advanced more than 1 kilometer deep. Our troops have complicated the enemy's movements to maximum extent - Hanna Maliar, Deputy Defense Minister.

Heavy combat is undergoing in Melitopol and Berdiansk direction, she added. "Our Defenders there are grinding the equipment and weapons of the enemy, destroy ammunition warehouses, hit enemy locations, diminishing the enemy's advancement and defense capabilities" - Hanna Maliar.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 8 July 2023

After a lull during June 2023, over the last seven days Bakhmut has again been the site of some of the most intense fighting along the front.

Ukrainian forces have made steady gains to both the north and south of the Russian-held town. Russian defenders are highly likely struggling with poor morale, a mix of disparate units and a limited ability to find and strike Ukrainian artillery.

The Russian leadership almost certainly see it as politically unacceptable to concede Bakhmut, which has a symbolic weight as one of the few Russian gains in the last 12 months. However, there are highly likely few additional reserves to commit to the sector.

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Thinking about the cluster munitions, I think that there will be two main impacts:

1) Obviously, they will be more effective than standard rounds at helping Ukraine clear trenches, which is a significant part of the challenge that Ukraine faces right now.

The rounds promised today should be hitting Russian troops in a little over two weeks. I expect that Ukraine will be able to make faster progress once they get these shells.

2) They extend the Ukrainian offensive. So far, Ukraine has committed only a small part of its new western-armed brigades to the fight. Ukraine has lost some vehicles, but they've been replaced faster than they've been lost. In fact, Ukraine hasn't lost any Strykers at all yet, so the 32 pledged today will likely go with some Leopard 1 tanks to equip another mechanized brigade.

No, Ukraine has been taking ground slowly specifically so as not to lose men and equipment. The problem with the slow pace of the Ukrainian offensive was that Ukraine was going to run out of ammo, and the offensive would culminate.

Ukraine can now feel confident that won't happen anytime soon. Some 400,000 or so cluster rounds, when added to Ukrainian stocks, will extend the offensive by several months. Ukraine can be confident that they will continue to have the necessary ammo to attack until the mud season arrives in late fall.

By then, Abrams and GLSDB will have entered the fight. Ukraine will continue to get stronger over the next few months, while Russia continues to replace destroyed modern tanks with ancient T-55s.

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Michael Kofman made a realistic assessment of the counter offensive thus far and had thoughts of a similar vein regarding how the cluster munitions will benefit the Ukrainian offensive by extending how far they can sustain operations until culmination.

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A few thoughts on DPICM. Providing cluster munitions to Ukraine, at this stage, could have a significant impact beyond what other capabilities might achieve. Despite the drawbacks, unlocking this stockpile has important implications for the course of Ukraine's offensive. 1/

Ukraine's offensive is limited by the artillery ammunition available. The US, and other countries, provided a significant amount for this operation. Much of this was borrowed from South Korea. Without this ammunition it is difficult to imagine this offensive taking place. 2/

Progress has been slow, difficult, and without sustained breakthroughs thus far. While UA retains the bulk of its combat power, artillery use rate is likely higher than anticipated, especially as the past weeks have seen a largely attritional approach. 3/

Consequently, Ukraine's hardest limit is proably not manpower, or equipment, but arty ammunition. This is foremost about the numbers. Providing DPICM gives access to a sizable stockpile of artillery ammo that can alleviate the time pressure on UA operations. 4/

With DPICM the US is also in a much better position to sustain Ukraine's war effort into next year, which requires significant amounts of artillery ammunition on a monthly basis. While other capabilities may be great to have, providing DPICM may prove more impactful. 5/

While UA retains options, the offensive may culminate whenever the ammunition runs low. Extending that timeline is critical. I wont get into the debate on effectiveness vs the risks, dud rates, etc. My view is these considerations are ultimately best left for Ukraine to weigh.

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I agree very much with his final point as well, that it is up to Ukraine to determine if they want to use them as they are the ones facing the risks either way.

The extension of how long Ukraine can maintain operations is likely greater than we realise since they will consume fewer rounds when clearing areas of troops with them so there is a multiplier factor to consider. Furthermore if it also enables them to clear more effectively this leads to shorter engagement times and reduced shell consumption.

Finally a couple of questions for any engineer/military types, I can google but am looking for more real world testimony:

1) How effective would cluster munitions be on clearing mined areas?

2) My understanding of the cluster munitions they are receiving is that they come with a failsafe that detonates them after several days to avoid unexploded ordinance issues - how effective is this failsafe?

Edit 2: It appears the failsafe was retrofitted in 2003 but no information on how effective or how thorough their installation was that I could find.

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The base bleed mechanism reduces the submunition count to 72. Work was budgeted in 2003 to retrofit the M42/M46 grenades with self-destruct fuses to reduce the problem of "dud" submunitions that do not initially explode, but may explode later upon handling. In Vietnam they were known as "firecracker rounds" owing to the rippling detonation of submunitions over a couple of seconds.

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LINK

Edit: Clarity and additional query.

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2) My understanding of the cluster munitions they are receiving is that they come with a failsafe that detonates them after several days to avoid unexploded ordinance issues - how effective is this failsafe?

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Have not seen this mentioned. I have seen it mentioned with respect to the mines that are delivered via artillery.

Politico:

Top Dems break with Biden over sending cluster bombs to Ukraine

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Key Democratic lawmakers are breaking with President Joe Biden over the controversial decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine, arguing that providing the weapons, which are banned by more than 120 countries, cedes the moral high ground and will end up indiscriminately killing civilians.

Top Democrats on the House Rules Committee and the panels that fund the Pentagon and State Department lashed out in rare public statements broadcasting their break with their party’s president.

“The decision by the Biden administration to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine is unnecessary and a terrible mistake,” said Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Mo.), the ranking member of the House’s defense appropriations subcommittee. “The legacy of cluster bombs is misery, death and expensive cleanup generations after their use.”

“These weapons should be eliminated from our stockpiles, not dumped in Ukraine,” she added.

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Progressive Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), the ranking member of the House panel that funds the State Department, tweeted she was “alarmed” at the move, while House Rules Committee ranking member Jim McGovern said that while he supports helping Ukraine, sending cluster bombs represents a break with NATO allies such as the U.K., France, Germany and Spain.

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Still, even some more hawkish Democrats ripped the administration. Air Force veteran and House Armed Services member Chrissy Houlahan, in a statement Friday, challenged the assessment that cluster bombs would be the most effective means to back Kyiv.

“I challenge the notion that we should employ the same tactics Russia is using, blurring the lines of moral high ground,” said Houlahan, who co-chairs the bipartisan Unexploded Ordinance (UXO)/Demining Caucus.

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