re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I can't claim credit though, I found it in Michael Bond's twitter timeline https://twitter.com/HelloMrBond, it's about the fourth or fifth time I have found good technical and/or analysis pertaining to the war since bookmarking him a couple of weeks ago, his channel is worth a look if folks haven't already imo.

Russian soldier gives up to drone

LINK

Edit: Sorry for the second long post - I separated this from my previous one due to length as the other one was already quite long and this seemed to merit its own.

In answer to Noel's question below - No.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1669038889812516866

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These are reportedly shells provided by the Russian Federation to its fighters. Would you dare to use these?

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I also traced it back to where it appears to be taken from, a Russian language telegram account that was created in September '22, which claims to be a:

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Dossier Spy Channel – a telegram channel of an employee of one of the special services. I am among you and know a lot about you.
Any question or wish? Want to share data?

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The images are from this post on the 15th of June.

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/344

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Shoigu! Gerasimov! And here is the ammunition!

Dear subscribers,

To your attention photo ammunition, which are placed at the disposal of units Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Lugansk direction.

As you understand, times have come alarming, so need a lot of ammunition and « on yesterday ».

You may have noticed that the ammunition itself is slightly rusted. But those responsible from the warehouses assure that the damage occurred during the transportation, because they went off being in perfect condition.

Also, I want to draw your attention to innovative way to transport BC – in bulk. Do not worry, it is completely safe. And it fits more.

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Going back over their post history there is a lot of photos of hand written reports claiming to detail Russian losses and other war related information. Even if this is a disinformation account it makes for fascinating, though morbid, reading.

This is an example from 13 September '22

https://t.me/s/dosye_shpiona/26

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Units Western Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation today carry very heavy losses in personnel as a result counteroffenses of the Ukrainian army in the Izyum direction. So at my disposal were lists of the wounded who were transported by air from Belgorod in. Pushkin, Leningrad region. ( 06.09, 09.09, 10.09 ), where RF is one of the most equipped hospitals for receiving the wounded. Such a distant transfer (more than 1000 km) justified by the fact that injuries in affected military personnel are characterized as « heavy » and « very heavy ». In just three days it was transported 206 military personnel.

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This is the 2nd day in a row that no territory has been confirmed to change hands. The offensive appears to have slowed down again significantly, and I wanted to offer my thoughts and see what y'all think.

DISCLAIMER: I never served and have no military expertise. I offer this not in search of praise but to understand -- so that y'all can tell me where I'm right and where I'm wrong.

So far, the offensive has concentrated in two areas: south of Velyka Novosilka and south (and SW) of Orikhiv. Each of these axes got exactly one of the new, Western-equipped mechanized brigades: the 31st and the 47th, respectively, but both of them have been joined with a number of pre-existing units.

South of Orikhiv, the 47th had a disastrous first night, losing a number of Bradleys and Leopards, though many of these were later recovered and can be repaired. Indeed, a number of them seem to have simply detracked by mines, and some of them have probably already returned to the fight.

Since then, though, the 47th has avoided any big losses, and they and their associated units have pushed the Russian front back a bit towards Robotyne and captured the small town of Lobkove. Overall, though, these gains are minor and not worth the loss of vehicles.

On the other axis, south of Velyka Novosilka, the 31st had a bit of a minor breakthrough. They were able to get their AMX-10s past the initial Russian defense and into the forest belt just east of Blahodatne. They took the road through the forest, unseen by Russia, bypassing more Russian defensive positions, to get to the rear and force Russian troops to rapidly retreat to avoid being trapped.

Associated units have taken several small towns near those positions, and they are now slowly advancing in several areas in that sector, after Russia brought in three regiments of reinforcements.



Needless to say, this has been very different from what I expected the offensive to look like. I thought that we'd see something like ten of the new mechanized brigades on the 1st day, with only a couple held in reserve. All the "experts" that I read said things like "the first 24 hours will be critical." They were wrong.

Why has the offensive developed so slowly? I have a number of theories, which are not mutually exclusive. Perhaps all of them are true.

1) Ukraine was under political pressure to begin the offensive, but really believed that they needed more Western weaponry. A slowly-developing offensive means that Ukraine might be able to prosecute this operation while experiencing only a small net loss of materiel, as new equipment comes in to replace losses.

2) The blowing of the Nova Kakhovka dam will create significant opportunities for Ukraine to attack into southern Kherson province in a few weeks. By working slowly and saving most of its combat power, Ukraine preserves those opportunities.

3) The great difficulty will be to break the fortified Russian line, the "Surovikin line," as it is now sometimes called. We have no way to know if Ukraine will be able to break that line, but it may need all the combat power available to succeed. Gen. Syrsky is therefore determined to use as few of his new mechanized brigades as possible until that fateful battle.

4) A slowly-developing offensive allows Ukraine to choke Russian supply lines. Ukraine took Kherson via a logistics operation, and it might do the same now in southern Ukraine. We have seen multiple strikes on Russian railroads and bridges. If Ukraine can starve local units of fuel and ammo, the big battle will be much easier when it happens.

What Gen. Syrsky seems to be doing is keeping his powder dry while using only two new brigades + a number of older units to push the front line in the Velyka Novosilka area up to the main Russian fortified line.

I'm sure that the Russians are trying to establish further fortifications behind that main line, but that's hard to do when the enemy is as close as it is. Indeed, I saw a video earlier today of an FPV drone hitting a Russian mining truck in that sector. And the more reinforcements that Russia tries to bring into that area, the more opportunities there are for Ukrainian artillery to hit them as they move.

I personally think that Gen. Syrsky needs to introduce another of the new mechanized units into that sector. He doesn't want the offensive to be seen as grinding to a halt. Ukraine needs to keep the momentum. But, so far, it looks like the plan is good.

- I still have no idea what Gen. Syrsky is doing around Kupiansk, in the far north of the front. The Russians say that they have seen a huge military buildup there, but nothing happens.

- I think of the operations around Bakhmut as mostly diversionary, but Ukrainian advances there also serve to keep Prigozhin cussing out the Russian MoD. It's helpful to keep damaging Russian morale.

Thoughts?

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It's interesting that the WSJ put that outside of their pay wall.

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They released another video today which shows the amazing saga of a Russian soldier surrendering to a drone. It is old footage from last month but IMO it is quite a compelling watch. 7 minutes long:


Youtube

How goes the offensive? I haven’t been following?

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How goes the offensive?

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Slow. Not much action the past two days

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How does the offensive? I haven’t been following?

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It's slowed for now. Russia seems to be taking heavier than normal losses for an army playing defense. Some speculation that Ukraine still has a strong force in reserve and is biding its time deciding where to commit them. A lot of fury in Russia over an incident where around 250 troops were brought together for 2 hours before being thrown into a counter attack. Maybe waiting for a speech from a big wheel. Ukraine noticed and lit them up with around 200 casualties.

https://rochanconsulting.substack.com/