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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/14/23 at 6:41 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 6/14/23 at 6:41 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Trained Dolphins
I know the US Navy has dabbled with this before and I know that dolphins can be trained and are very intelligent. But that's just funny.
I have a picture in my mind that resembles the Austin Powers Laser Sharks.
1
Posted on 6/14/23 at 6:58 am to StormyMcMan
There is tons of weirdness going on about the supposed strike against Chechens in the south of Ukraine.
Adam Delimkhanov, Duma deputy and head the chechen Rosgvardia, Kadryov's #2, is reported dead in the strike by some, other reports say he's injured, and others say that he's just fine.
Kadryov posts a bizarre message asking Ukrainian intelligence for help "finding his brother," and there are accusations against Wagner for supposedly leaking his location to the Ukrainians.
It's nuts.
Adam Delimkhanov, Duma deputy and head the chechen Rosgvardia, Kadryov's #2, is reported dead in the strike by some, other reports say he's injured, and others say that he's just fine.
Kadryov posts a bizarre message asking Ukrainian intelligence for help "finding his brother," and there are accusations against Wagner for supposedly leaking his location to the Ukrainians.
It's nuts.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 7:03 am to GOP_Tiger
The other big news this morning (this is a summary of what Russian Telegram channels are saying):
LINK
There's lots of anger in Russian channels for gathering such a big group and leaving in the same place for long enough for HIMARS to kill some 200 or so troops.
LINK
quote:
Near Kreminna, one of the Russian commanders gathered a large column that was going to attack the Ukrainian positions in that area. The column remained immobile for 2 hours.
All this did not go unnoticed by the Ukrainians. The UAV operators found the column, transmitted the exact coordinates, and HIMARS and artillery destroyed the column.
There's lots of anger in Russian channels for gathering such a big group and leaving in the same place for long enough for HIMARS to kill some 200 or so troops.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 7:53 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There is tons of weirdness going on about the supposed strike against Chechens in the south of Ukraine.
Russian General Staff has to send in more troops to stop them from looting and raping.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 7:55 am to GOP_Tiger
Ukraine Weapons Tracker (with video):
All five were destroyed in the area of the Velyka Novosilka axis (the Vremivsky Ledge axis). That's a significant loss of combat power in such a small area -- the area where Ukraine is pressing the hardest right now.
Dr. Jack Watling from London's RUSI institute has a good column today: LINK. Key bit:
Ukraine is making the progress that it has with mostly older units. Syrsky wisely decided that he only needed to use more ammo and a couple of the new brigades to change the balance of power in the area. He may or may not need to use one more new brigade to achieve what Watling is talking about: a 20-mile stretch of front right up against the main Russian fortified line.
That will give him options and the opportunity to attempt a breach in multiple places at once, preventing Russia from concentrating its defense.
But taking out five of the 152mm guns needed for that defense is significant.
quote:
Two Russian 2S19 Msta-S 152mm self-propelled howitzers were hit by GMRLS strikes of the Ukrainian Army North of Novopetrykivka, #Donetsk Oblast.
quote:
At least three more Russian 2S19 Msta-S 152mm self-propelled howitzers were destroyed by GMLRS strikes of the Ukrainian army near Novopetrykivka, #Donetsk Oblast.
All five were destroyed in the area of the Velyka Novosilka axis (the Vremivsky Ledge axis). That's a significant loss of combat power in such a small area -- the area where Ukraine is pressing the hardest right now.
Dr. Jack Watling from London's RUSI institute has a good column today: LINK. Key bit:
quote:
The Ukrainian military is trying to put pressure across the front to advance through the first line of defences in as much breadth as possible. The reason for this is to increase the options for attacking the main defence line and to keep Russian forces uncertain as to where the main effort will be launched. Furthermore, with such a long front, stretching out Russian troops limits their ability to stack units in depth, pulling more forward.
At some point, the Ukrainians will have to decide where to commit their main assault units, and the offensive will enter its decisive phase. This decision must be conditions-based. It isn’t about adhering to some fixed timeline. When these units are committed, the offensive will either achieve a breakthrough or fail. Success is binary, not linear. The line is either broken or it is not, and Kyiv must shape the battlefield to maximise the probability of a breach.
The extent of a success will be determined by how much progress is made on the other side of the breach. If a breach can be achieved, then the critical question will be how many units Ukraine has in reserve to surge forward and exploit the success. If operations are currently methodical, once a breach in the line occurs, speed will be of the essence.
Ukraine is making the progress that it has with mostly older units. Syrsky wisely decided that he only needed to use more ammo and a couple of the new brigades to change the balance of power in the area. He may or may not need to use one more new brigade to achieve what Watling is talking about: a 20-mile stretch of front right up against the main Russian fortified line.
That will give him options and the opportunity to attempt a breach in multiple places at once, preventing Russia from concentrating its defense.
But taking out five of the 152mm guns needed for that defense is significant.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:00 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The extent of a success will be determined by how much progress is made on the other side of the breach. If a breach can be achieved, then the critical question will be how many units Ukraine has in reserve to surge forward and exploit the success. If operations are currently methodical, once a breach in the line occurs, speed will be of the essence.
I have to wonder what sort of reserves the Russians have in place to deal with any Ukrainian breakthroughs. That is key. Logic would dictate they have reserves ready behind their main line of defense. But this is the Russians we’re talking about so who knows?
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:03 am to CitizenK
quote:FIFY
Russian General Staff has to send in more troops to stop them from raping and looting and raping.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:07 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I have to wonder what sort of reserves the Russians have in place to deal with any Ukrainian breakthroughs. That is key. Logic would dictate they have reserves ready behind their main line of defense. But this is the Russians we’re talking about so who knows?
this is my thought too. and to add to Russia's problems, you either bring men and supplies from the east or from the south through Crimea. Whereas Ukraine has more options of supply routes. and as the offense drives south they put more pressure on those supply routes.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:29 am to soccerfüt
Then the Russian regulars rape, loot and rape.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:30 am to tigeraddict
FWIW, it seems to me that the reason which Putin wants Wagner and all the other PMC's under command of the General Staff is more about his security. Having rival warlords isn't good for his control.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:49 am to GOP_Tiger
Excuse me for failing to feel sympathy for fatass Kadryov’s loss. If I were Ukraine I would tell him they would be happy to help right after he takes his men out of Ukraine and denounces Putin’s bullshite war. Until then he go drown his sorrows in a gallon of vodka and 10 lbs of beef stroganoff. Not all is list though. I would comfort Kadryov by explaining g to him that his “brother” will make excellent fertilizer for the sunflower fields.
This post was edited on 6/14/23 at 9:01 am
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:21 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I have to wonder what sort of reserves the Russians have in place to deal with any Ukrainian breakthroughs.
Talking about reserves, I did find out which units they used to reinforce their troops in front of the main axis south of Velyka Novosilka: two motorized regiments and a DNR regiment.
Enough to slow the Ukrainian advance? Yes. Enough to stop it? I don't think so.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:29 am to GOP_Tiger
Putin is going to meet with the prime minister of Cuba today. I guess that, when you only have a few friends, each of them is a big deal.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:30 am to GOP_Tiger
Prolly gonna try to move SRBMs there again.
Putin is just a boomer trying to relive the good ol days
Putin is just a boomer trying to relive the good ol days
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:31 am to GOP_Tiger
Rybar is as confused as I am by the Chechen antics today:
quote:
There are many questions about the story of Adam Delimkhanov: in the morning, the Ukrainian media announced that a blow had been struck on the Chechen commander-deputy, and his arm had been torn off.
??If the Ukrainian formations really struck at the bases of the Akhmat detachments, then the panicky denials from the deputies of the State Duma and the Zvezda TV channel play into their hands.
??If something is really wrong with Adam Delimkhanov, then Alautdinov’s posts about how Akhmat units are being removed from Maryinka, and Ramzan Kadyrov’s words about the search for Delimkhanov are a rather strange reaction, which is designed to assure the enemy that he has something happened.
??If all this is part of a campaign to mislead the enemy, then this campaign is going on somehow directly “on the forehead”. We hope that there really is a rationale for it.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:38 am to GOP_Tiger
Just another country to add to glen greenwalds map that just shows the majority of the world stands with Russia and NOT the west
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:38 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Near Kreminna, one of the Russian commanders gathered a large column that was going to attack the Ukrainian positions in that area. The column remained immobile for 2 hours.
All this did not go unnoticed by the Ukrainians. The UAV operators found the column, transmitted the exact coordinates, and HIMARS and artillery destroyed the column.
Rybar forwarded this commentary on the incident:
quote:
- It was near Kremennaya, a tragic incident occurred in one of the divisions that were going to go on the offensive. For two hours people stood in a crowd in one place and waited for the division commander to say his motivating word. But instead of him, the HIMARS MLRS and enemy artillery had their say. In the Yuzhnodonetsk direction, in a few days there were fewer victims in the battles than from the criminal stupidity of the division commander (c) @rybar
- If by the middle of the second year of the war there are commanders that carry columns to the front and build personnel in one big pile, and then wait for the enemy artillery to strike, then such commanders must be shot before the formation, even if they are colonels or even generals (c) @ vysokygovorit
- Bitch, you can't stand in a column for two hours in one place! Well, what are you doing, father commanders, you are commanding people! Will bloggers be looked for again instead of degenerates with high shoulder straps? The Armed Forces of Ukraine have no merit in this war. We are at war with our own stupidity and sloppiness, smeared from above with beautiful reports (c) @dva_majors
Posted on 6/14/23 at 10:09 am to GOP_Tiger
Konrad Muzyka sent another email update, with some maps and unit information:
I would say that these conclusions are fairly obvious:
I would say that these conclusions are fairly obvious:
quote:
Conclusions
• The likely objective of the Ukrainian offensive is to sever the Russian defensive formations along strategically favourable directions, based on the terrain configuration and along the contact line between Russian operational groupings;
• Ukraine likely can potentially breach the Russian defence only on one axis;
• The centre of gravity of Ukrainian operations is in the VELYKA NOVOSILKA axis;
• Breaking through the Russian defence will require an increased deployment of manoeuvrer formations and artillery fire support.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 10:19 am to GOP_Tiger
Rain is mostly over with along the front lines. Former USAF meteorologist David Helms: LINK
quote:
Discussion (14 June 2023): Overnight (13-14 JUN) most areas near the LoC received 10-20 mm rain (except west Donetsk) degrading trafficability for wheeled vehicles especially north/west of Melitopol. Light rain showers predicted next week.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 10:38 am to GOP_Tiger
2 hours mobilizing a large formation is not much time. The Ukes did a good job of identifying and hitting.
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