- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:00 pm to El Mattadorr
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:00 pm to El Mattadorr
quote:
This is great. How can I get on that email list?
I would assume by subbing his substack.
0
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:02 pm to OutsideObserver
Does anyone else feel like they need a tetanus shot just from looking at those ancient tank rounds?
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:28 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
How goes the offensive? I haven’t been following?
You're posting in a thread with over 2800 pages. You could probably follow if you scrolled back a few pages.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:29 pm to GOP_Tiger
Thanks, GOP. 
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:33 pm to El Mattadorr
Also on Twitter
LINK
LINK
Posted on 6/14/23 at 8:55 pm to GOP_Tiger
I am in same boat as you, no military experience beyond schoolboy cadets, just an avid interest in armed conflict and warfare and their permutations, so for what it is worth:
I wouldn't say territory hasn't changed hands as there are many reports of a back and forth between Russia and Ukraine, especially around the settlement of Makarivka on the Velyka Novosilka axis in the last 48 hours. It now appears Ukraine has managed to secure it after the Russian 127th motorised rifle division made repeated counterattacks.
I think Ukraine recognised rightly that without dominant air power their ability to strike fast and deep is very limited and their offensive will rely on small hops with massed artillery to obliterate stubborn areas to make up for this, at least until they can breach the main defense line. Throw in the constant threat of drones on slow moving or stagnant troop concentrations and they have a difficult operational theatre to contend with.
Regarding the Velyka Novosilka axis, pushing down the river valley without securing the heights before assaulting Staromaiors'ke was going to see Ukraine trapped in a turkey shoot so a slow down to achieve this is needed. If they can successfully take Staromaiors'ke and hold it then it can become an excellent staging area to start ripping apart the actual defensive lines further south with concentrated artillery strikes.
It is going slower than many would like, especially with the expectation that was built up over the last 6 months, however we have also gotten used to near real time documentation of this war and also more broadly in our lives, so not having daily or even hourly changes can seem slow.
I agree that they most likely started sooner than they wanted - primarily they wanted more airborne assets in my view. I don't think any armed force ever has everything they want in wartime, though effective command can recognise how this can be compensated for, Ukraine has had mixed results in this regard, especially in the Orikhiv direction.
I also believe the 2 week or so missile blitz by Russia prior to the offensive played a part in motivating Ukraine as well as they saw their potential offensive going up in smoke if they kept stagnant, they retook the initiative somewhat as well optically by committing in the field and putting all the equipment to use, even if a decent portion was used poorly.
The potential is there but until water recedes significantly more to dry the river bed, and they stabilise the humanitarian issues in that region, any offensive efforts will be severely hampered logistically.
100%. Till now they have been fighting to get to a position where they can assault the defensive lines with a measure of alacrity and be able to make up for the lack of air power with massed artillery strikes. This would also explain the severe shell rationing we saw since their last offensive.
Also agree that the constant deep strikes on logistics, command and military hubs in key areas that have been going on over a month now indicate this approach. The more they can strain Russian logistics, the more fractured Russian morale and it's the defensive front becomes, so when the time comes to attempt to punch through, it is as brittle as possible.
If Russia hasn't started to further fortify the lines into Mariupol and west towards Crimea along the lines this axis could take already then they are in a much worse command and supply situation than I thought. There have been many reports of Ukraine having amassed a huge inventory of drones prior to the kick off, if true I would expect to see them unleashed on reserve movements once these become more prevalent as this is where they can excel - but this is countered by claims of Russian EW becoming more effective - whether true and maintainable under movement remains to be seen.
I have little doubt on this as well, however the effect on morale for Russia would be interesting to watch considering the time and resources expended to take it if Ukraine is quickly able to even just push back past Bahkmut let alone retake it in a short period of time with a small investment of resources on their part.
Edit: Clarity
I wouldn't say territory hasn't changed hands as there are many reports of a back and forth between Russia and Ukraine, especially around the settlement of Makarivka on the Velyka Novosilka axis in the last 48 hours. It now appears Ukraine has managed to secure it after the Russian 127th motorised rifle division made repeated counterattacks.
I think Ukraine recognised rightly that without dominant air power their ability to strike fast and deep is very limited and their offensive will rely on small hops with massed artillery to obliterate stubborn areas to make up for this, at least until they can breach the main defense line. Throw in the constant threat of drones on slow moving or stagnant troop concentrations and they have a difficult operational theatre to contend with.
Regarding the Velyka Novosilka axis, pushing down the river valley without securing the heights before assaulting Staromaiors'ke was going to see Ukraine trapped in a turkey shoot so a slow down to achieve this is needed. If they can successfully take Staromaiors'ke and hold it then it can become an excellent staging area to start ripping apart the actual defensive lines further south with concentrated artillery strikes.
It is going slower than many would like, especially with the expectation that was built up over the last 6 months, however we have also gotten used to near real time documentation of this war and also more broadly in our lives, so not having daily or even hourly changes can seem slow.
quote:
1) Ukraine was under political pressure to begin the offensive, but really believed that they needed more Western weaponry. A slowly-developing offensive means that Ukraine might be able to prosecute this operation while experiencing only a small net loss of materiel, as new equipment comes in to replace losses.
I agree that they most likely started sooner than they wanted - primarily they wanted more airborne assets in my view. I don't think any armed force ever has everything they want in wartime, though effective command can recognise how this can be compensated for, Ukraine has had mixed results in this regard, especially in the Orikhiv direction.
I also believe the 2 week or so missile blitz by Russia prior to the offensive played a part in motivating Ukraine as well as they saw their potential offensive going up in smoke if they kept stagnant, they retook the initiative somewhat as well optically by committing in the field and putting all the equipment to use, even if a decent portion was used poorly.
quote:
2) The blowing of the Nova Kakhovka dam will create significant opportunities for Ukraine to attack into southern Kherson province in a few weeks. By working slowly and saving most of its combat power, Ukraine preserves those opportunities.
The potential is there but until water recedes significantly more to dry the river bed, and they stabilise the humanitarian issues in that region, any offensive efforts will be severely hampered logistically.
quote:
3) The great difficulty will be to break the fortified Russian line, the "Surovikin line," as it is now sometimes called. We have no way to know if Ukraine will be able to break that line, but it may need all the combat power available to succeed. Gen. Syrsky is therefore determined to use as few of his new mechanized brigades as possible until that fateful battle.
100%. Till now they have been fighting to get to a position where they can assault the defensive lines with a measure of alacrity and be able to make up for the lack of air power with massed artillery strikes. This would also explain the severe shell rationing we saw since their last offensive.
quote:
4) A slowly-developing offensive allows Ukraine to choke Russian supply lines. Ukraine took Kherson via a logistics operation, and it might do the same now in southern Ukraine. We have seen multiple strikes on Russian railroads and bridges. If Ukraine can starve local units of fuel and ammo, the big battle will be much easier when it happens.
Also agree that the constant deep strikes on logistics, command and military hubs in key areas that have been going on over a month now indicate this approach. The more they can strain Russian logistics, the more fractured Russian morale and it's the defensive front becomes, so when the time comes to attempt to punch through, it is as brittle as possible.
quote:
I'm sure that the Russians are trying to establish further fortifications behind that main line, but that's hard to do when the enemy is as close as it is. Indeed, I saw a video earlier today of an FPV drone hitting a Russian mining truck in that sector. And the more reinforcements that Russia tries to bring into that area, the more opportunities there are for Ukrainian artillery to hit them as they move.
If Russia hasn't started to further fortify the lines into Mariupol and west towards Crimea along the lines this axis could take already then they are in a much worse command and supply situation than I thought. There have been many reports of Ukraine having amassed a huge inventory of drones prior to the kick off, if true I would expect to see them unleashed on reserve movements once these become more prevalent as this is where they can excel - but this is countered by claims of Russian EW becoming more effective - whether true and maintainable under movement remains to be seen.
quote:
I think of the operations around Bakhmut as mostly diversionary, but Ukrainian advances there also serve to keep Prigozhin cussing out the Russian MoD. It's helpful to keep damaging Russian morale.
I have little doubt on this as well, however the effect on morale for Russia would be interesting to watch considering the time and resources expended to take it if Ukraine is quickly able to even just push back past Bahkmut let alone retake it in a short period of time with a small investment of resources on their part.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 6/14/23 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:01 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
The potential is there but until water recedes significantly more to dry the river bed, and they stabilise the humanitarian issues in that region, any offensive efforts will be severely hampered logistically.
The reservoir bed is mostly sand and gravel so it shouldn't take too long to be passable
This post was edited on 6/14/23 at 9:20 pm
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:04 pm to El Mattadorr
quote:
You could probably follow if you scrolled back a few pages.
I did. Not really anything to substancive. Anecdotal stuff for the most part that gives the impression of Ukrainian progress but nothing concrete
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:11 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I did. Not really anything to substancive. Anecdotal stuff for the most part that gives the impression of Ukrainian progress but nothing concrete
Most of the normal Ukrainian sources are not providing the kinds of updates they provided over the winter due to a request that the movement of Ukrainian troops not be publicly discussed. As a result, most reports available right now, with limited exception, are from either Russian sources or from internet posters who don’t really have information. The Ukrainian offensive is maybe a week old. No huge breakthrough has been reported, but there has been some advances reported and acknowledged by the Russians. But I agree there there is limited front line reporting right now.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:16 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
How goes the offensive? I haven’t been following?
3.6 Roentgen
It is still primarily in the probing phase IMO and the Ukraine bloggers (and/or their sources) have been mindful of opsec so it is one of the dullest times for blow by blow accounts since the beginning of the war.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 9:17 pm to OutsideObserver
Thank you very much for your commentary. Good stuff.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 10:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
I really like your thoughts, well thought out.
I would offer another possible scenario for why this is not progressing as fast as expected.
At the moment, Ukraine has time on it's side. They have time to progress cautiously, it gives Russia time to shift forces in response which is exactly what Ukraine wants it to do. They have pressured the north towards Belgorod and now are pressuring in an almost 180 direction. At the same time they are keeping pressure on Bakhmut so the Russians can't pull troops from there, they have to pull them from other points.
Another benefit to the cautious approach is that Ukraine can keep the pressure on with slow steady advances designed to minimize casualties. Ukraine must be judicious in minimizing losses to soldiers and weapon systems.
I will offer one other variable, Ukraine has been on the attack for more than a week. Units get tired and need to resupply. Vehicles need refueling and rearming. They could be in a tactical pause while they get ready for the next hard push.
I would offer another possible scenario for why this is not progressing as fast as expected.
At the moment, Ukraine has time on it's side. They have time to progress cautiously, it gives Russia time to shift forces in response which is exactly what Ukraine wants it to do. They have pressured the north towards Belgorod and now are pressuring in an almost 180 direction. At the same time they are keeping pressure on Bakhmut so the Russians can't pull troops from there, they have to pull them from other points.
Another benefit to the cautious approach is that Ukraine can keep the pressure on with slow steady advances designed to minimize casualties. Ukraine must be judicious in minimizing losses to soldiers and weapon systems.
I will offer one other variable, Ukraine has been on the attack for more than a week. Units get tired and need to resupply. Vehicles need refueling and rearming. They could be in a tactical pause while they get ready for the next hard push.
Posted on 6/14/23 at 10:56 pm to TBoy
quote:
Most of the normal Ukrainian sources are not providing the kinds of updates they provided over the winter due to a request that the movement of Ukrainian troops not be publicly discussed.
I assume most have seen this video of the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Malyar which is 33 seconds of stoic silence with this caption near the end: "There will be more... plans love silence" and a little grin at the very end. It was published on Sunday.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 2:44 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Thank you very much for your commentary. Good stuff.
Thanks to you and Chrome for discussion, you both raised good points in regards to the how and why things have progressed as they have so far.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 2:59 am to Obtuse1
That video looked real to you, not even a little uncanny valleyish? Japanese flag and all?
Posted on 6/15/23 at 3:57 am to OutsideObserver
A few things since my earlier posts
I'm no financial expert but this seems incredibly short-sighted if accurate, even if Russia is bent on disengaging from trade with the West and the U.S. dollar market. It may give their coffers a short term injection but past the conflict businesses will be very leery about setting up in Russia again if there is a risk of it essentially strong arming their assets off them if they don't "behave".
https://www.ft.com/content/cd627211-68f6-4dfa-8a04-3344deee2e85
An interesting thread claiming Russia had early notice of Ukraine's Operation Order for the offensive. This appears to based on information from Matt Dreizin of the Dreizin report published in May. I have only posted the overall map as the thread is quite long.
Note: Though I consider both these sources to be highly unreliable the Drezin May post does see correlation with what we have seen thus far including unit participation. At the same time Ukraine had limited avenues to exploit so any prediction was going to have hits on target. I also find the phase predictions to be very...optimistic, to say the least.
https://twitter.com/MNormanDavies/status/1669118315531493378
Original Dreizin report post from the 8 May '23.
https://thedreizinreport.com/2023/05/08/dreizin-publishes-complete-ukrainian-battle-plan-for-entire-zaporozhie-front/
There continues to be a large amount of footage despite the information blackout of Russian artillery and munitions being hit, whether by design or because they are hitting so many I cannot say, but there certainly appears to be a focus on these targets at the moment.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1669119330066354183 - Video
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1669208945993433088 - Video
I'm no financial expert but this seems incredibly short-sighted if accurate, even if Russia is bent on disengaging from trade with the West and the U.S. dollar market. It may give their coffers a short term injection but past the conflict businesses will be very leery about setting up in Russia again if there is a risk of it essentially strong arming their assets off them if they don't "behave".
https://www.ft.com/content/cd627211-68f6-4dfa-8a04-3344deee2e85
quote:
Russia moves to seize ‘naughty’ western companies
Russia is to adopt powers to seize assets of “naughty” western companies and will make it harder for them to exit the country, as Vladimir Putin seeks ways to retaliate against US and European sanctions.
The Kremlin last week secretly ordered legislation to enable western assets to be appropriated at knockdown prices and is discussing even more draconian measures to fully nationalise groups, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
The insiders said Putin’s economic team wanted the threat of nationalisation to be part of a carrot-and-stick approach aimed at punishing western countries that seize Russian assets while rewarding those that play by the Kremlin’s rules.
The confidential Kremlin decree, seen by the Financial Times, would give the Russian state priority rights to buy any western asset for sale at a “significant discount” so they could be sold at a profit.
An interesting thread claiming Russia had early notice of Ukraine's Operation Order for the offensive. This appears to based on information from Matt Dreizin of the Dreizin report published in May. I have only posted the overall map as the thread is quite long.
Note: Though I consider both these sources to be highly unreliable the Drezin May post does see correlation with what we have seen thus far including unit participation. At the same time Ukraine had limited avenues to exploit so any prediction was going to have hits on target. I also find the phase predictions to be very...optimistic, to say the least.
https://twitter.com/MNormanDavies/status/1669118315531493378
Original Dreizin report post from the 8 May '23.
https://thedreizinreport.com/2023/05/08/dreizin-publishes-complete-ukrainian-battle-plan-for-entire-zaporozhie-front/
There continues to be a large amount of footage despite the information blackout of Russian artillery and munitions being hit, whether by design or because they are hitting so many I cannot say, but there certainly appears to be a focus on these targets at the moment.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1669119330066354183 - Video
quote:
Ukrainian forces reportedly used a remote mining system (Possibly AT2 fired by the German MARS-II MLRS or 155mm RAAM) to mine the area east of Staromlynivka, on the Velyka Novosilka axis.
As seen here, a Russian transport carrying ammunition hit one of those mines.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1669208945993433088 - Video
quote:
Ukrainian FPV loitering munitions are getting in on the counterbattery activity on the Velyka Novosilka axis, seen here striking a Russian 2S17-2 Nona-SV self-propelled mortar, causing a complete ammunition cookoff.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 4:56 am to 94LSU
quote:
That video looked real to you, not even a little uncanny valleyish? Japanese flag and all?
It is 100% real, it was posted on the Deputy Minister of Defense's official Telegram page. Looking back I must have been distracted when I posted because that is not the Deputy Minister (who is a woman) that is Kyrill Budanov who is the chief of intelligence.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:03 am to Obtuse1
?British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 June 2023
On 10 June 2023, the Russian MoD demanded that members of 'volunteers formations' such as Wagner Group sign contracts directly with the MoD, a move explicitly endorsed by President Putin on TV on 13 June 2023.
For several months, Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin has been aiming vitriolic criticism at the MoD hierarchy but deferred to Putin's authority.
However, despite Putin's comments, on 14 June 2023 Prigozhin said that, 'none of Wagner's fighters are ready to go down the path of shame again. That's why they will not sign the contracts'. Prigozhin's rhetoric is evolving into defiance of broader sections of the Russian establishment. 01 July 2023, the deadline for the volunteers to sign contracts, is likely to be a key way-point in the feud.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 June 2023
On 10 June 2023, the Russian MoD demanded that members of 'volunteers formations' such as Wagner Group sign contracts directly with the MoD, a move explicitly endorsed by President Putin on TV on 13 June 2023.
For several months, Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin has been aiming vitriolic criticism at the MoD hierarchy but deferred to Putin's authority.
However, despite Putin's comments, on 14 June 2023 Prigozhin said that, 'none of Wagner's fighters are ready to go down the path of shame again. That's why they will not sign the contracts'. Prigozhin's rhetoric is evolving into defiance of broader sections of the Russian establishment. 01 July 2023, the deadline for the volunteers to sign contracts, is likely to be a key way-point in the feud.
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:12 am to cypher
Russians attack Ukraine with cruise missiles, drones at night - air defenses destroyed all Shahed UAVs
15.06.2023 07:37
At night between 00:20 and 04:30 on June 15, 2023, the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles, as well as Shahed-136/131 attack drones.
According to Ukrinform, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this on Telegram.
"Four Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles were launched from four Tu-95ms strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea. One of the missiles was intercepted, while the rest hit industrial facilities in Dnipropetrovsk region. Local military administrations will report on the aftermath of the attack,” the report says.
The enemy launched Iranian-made Shahed drones from the northern and southern directions. All 20 attack drones were destroyed by the forces and means of the Air Force in the areas of responsibility of the Air Commands South and East.
The Air Force added that an enemy UAV of operational-tactical level, which was conducting aerial reconnaissance in the eastern direction, was also destroyed.
UKRINFORM
15.06.2023 07:37
At night between 00:20 and 04:30 on June 15, 2023, the Russian invaders attacked Ukraine with Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles, as well as Shahed-136/131 attack drones.
According to Ukrinform, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this on Telegram.
"Four Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles were launched from four Tu-95ms strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea. One of the missiles was intercepted, while the rest hit industrial facilities in Dnipropetrovsk region. Local military administrations will report on the aftermath of the attack,” the report says.
The enemy launched Iranian-made Shahed drones from the northern and southern directions. All 20 attack drones were destroyed by the forces and means of the Air Force in the areas of responsibility of the Air Commands South and East.
The Air Force added that an enemy UAV of operational-tactical level, which was conducting aerial reconnaissance in the eastern direction, was also destroyed.
UKRINFORM
Posted on 6/15/23 at 5:35 am to cypher
LINK
quote:Japan is considering changing its laws that restrict arms exports. They also donated 100 trucks to Ukraine last week.
June 15 (Reuters) - Japan is in talks to provide artillery shells to the United States to bolster stocks for Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russia, the Wall Street Journal said on Thursday.
The Asian nation is considering supplying 155-mm. artillery shells under a 2016 pact to share ammunition as part of its long-standing security alliance with the United States, the paper added, citing people familiar with the matter.
This post was edited on 6/15/23 at 5:40 am
Page 2880 of 3925
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News