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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:10 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:10 am to StormyMcMan
On the political front, the next big event is the NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is likely to be contentious, as a number of countries are going to make a hard push for Ukraine to be given a clear path to membership.
Reuters reports:
In particular, the US has previously said that NATO membership is a discussion topic for after the war is over, and that the focus now should simply be on military aid.
Everyone understands that Ukraine cannot actually join NATO until the war is over, but what Ukraine wants is a clear path to membership at the end of the conflict.
British PM Sunak is going to be at the White House today, pushing Biden to increase military aid, and Biden is meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday in advance of the Vilnius summit. Sunak met with McCarthy yesterday.
But former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen (who is now an official advisor to Zelensky) warns about the consequences if Ukraine is not given a clear signal in Vilnius. The Guardian quotes him as saying:
I think that the chances of that are extremely low, and Rasmussen said it simply to gain leverage, but the prospect of Poland leading its own military into Ukraine to fight Russia is certainly disturbing. I think that almost all of us do not want a direct war between Russia and any NATO state.
Reuters reports:
quote:
The eastern flank countries of Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia - known collectively as the Bucharest Nine - have been among Ukraine's staunchest backers.
Some NATO members, though, fear a hasty move could bring the alliance closer to direct confrontation with Russia and Hungary's president Katalin Novak warned against making "unrealistic promises".
"We expect that in Vilnius, we will upgrade our political relations with Ukraine to a new level, and launch a new political track that will lead to Ukraine’s membership in NATO, once conditions allow," the Bucharest Nine's joint statement said.
Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda, who will host the Vilnius summit, told reporters that while the nine countries unanimously support Ukraine's membership of NATO, getting support from other NATO allies was "problematic".
"We don't yet see which way this goes," he said.
In particular, the US has previously said that NATO membership is a discussion topic for after the war is over, and that the focus now should simply be on military aid.
Everyone understands that Ukraine cannot actually join NATO until the war is over, but what Ukraine wants is a clear path to membership at the end of the conflict.
British PM Sunak is going to be at the White House today, pushing Biden to increase military aid, and Biden is meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday in advance of the Vilnius summit. Sunak met with McCarthy yesterday.
But former Nato secretary general Anders Rasmussen (who is now an official advisor to Zelensky) warns about the consequences if Ukraine is not given a clear signal in Vilnius. The Guardian quotes him as saying:
quote:
“If Nato cannot agree on a clear path forward for Ukraine, there is a clear possibility that some countries individually might take action. We know that Poland is very engaged in providing concrete assistance to Ukraine. And I wouldn’t exclude the possibility that Poland would engage even stronger in this context on a national basis and be followed by the Baltic states, maybe including the possibility of troops on the ground.
“I think the Poles would seriously consider going in and assemble a coalition of the willing if Ukraine doesn’t get anything in Vilnius. We shouldn’t underestimate the Polish feelings, the Poles feel that for too long western Europe did not listen to their warnings against the true Russian mentality.”
He said it would be entirely legal for Ukraine to seek such military assistance.
I think that the chances of that are extremely low, and Rasmussen said it simply to gain leverage, but the prospect of Poland leading its own military into Ukraine to fight Russia is certainly disturbing. I think that almost all of us do not want a direct war between Russia and any NATO state.
0
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:17 am to StormyMcMan
I’m trying to find info on how the Ukrainian offensive is going. Found this from WaPo on Twitter…
LINK
Anyone else know anything about how it’s going?
quote:
Fighting rages in Zaporizhzhia region, pro-Russian official says
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By Leo Sands
Moscow-backed officials in Ukraine’s occupied territories told Russian media Thursday that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is underway.
Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in the southeastern region, told the Russian state-owned RIA Novosti news agency that Ukraine’s army is applying “maximum force” against Moscow’s positions in the Zaporizhzhia region, with attacks focused around the city of Orikhiv.
In an interview Thursday, Rogov told RIA that Ukrainian forces gained territory near the village of Rabotino, where “continuous battles” rage, although he said Ukrainian attacks were successfully repelled elsewhere.
The pro-Russian official suggested that Ukrainian troops intended to capture the city of Tokmak to reach the Sea of Azov, which would break the “land bridge” that currently connects Moscow’s forces on the annexed Crimean Peninsula to Russia. The Washington Post could not immediately verify Rogov’s claims.
LINK
Anyone else know anything about how it’s going?
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:24 am to Darth_Vader
Summary
Ukraine gained some ground, how much is unknown but the fact is stated by both Russian and Ukrainian sources.
Russia claims it was a massive failure for Ukraine, who committed to a full out offensive, and they have lost all kinds of things although they expect a regrouping and another attack. Also, Russia finally used some air superiority in their defense
Ukraine claims it was just the "tip of the spear" or RIF type of activity.
TLDR Ukraine made some gains, but no one really knows where the dust is settling nor the exact kind of attack Ukraine did.
Ukraine gained some ground, how much is unknown but the fact is stated by both Russian and Ukrainian sources.
Russia claims it was a massive failure for Ukraine, who committed to a full out offensive, and they have lost all kinds of things although they expect a regrouping and another attack. Also, Russia finally used some air superiority in their defense
Ukraine claims it was just the "tip of the spear" or RIF type of activity.
TLDR Ukraine made some gains, but no one really knows where the dust is settling nor the exact kind of attack Ukraine did.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:27 am to StormyMcMan
I think this offensive is going to determine the outcome of this war one way or another.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:34 am to StormyMcMan
I feel like wed know if it was a total failure. Like wed sure as shite see some photos of burning leopards and bradleys
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:39 am to GOP_Tiger
Yeah I saw that but I really question the feasibility of acquiring older hornets. The original F/A-18 Hornet is a completely different aircraft from the Super Hornets that are mainly in service today. They have less hard points than the Super Hornet, less powerful engines and their avionics and weapons suites aren’t as advanced. Then you have to wonder what condition those aircraft are in since they were headed for the scrap yard. We were already having to scavenge parts from museum hornets to keep our own fleet of original hornets in the air so I can’t imagine spare parts are in better stock with the RAAF. It’s not all doom and gloom though. The original hornet is still a very mission capable multi role aircraft that can fly just about any type of combat sortie you can ask for. The real question is just how much more life those airframes have left on them to give and how many of those 41 is actually capable of flying versus how many would be scavenged to keep the rest in the air.
This post was edited on 6/8/23 at 8:54 am
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:42 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
I feel like wed know if it was a total failure. Like wed sure as shite see some photos of burning leopards and bradleys
It’s still early. But I’d imagine if the offensive is failing Russia would be eager to publish video of smashed Ukrainian formations.
Both sides in this war are very cognizant of the power of propaganda, so I imagine whatever side is winning will be posting up their proof as soon as possible.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:42 am to WestCoastAg
Russian MOD:
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:44 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I have kept quiet on the counteroffensive and this is by design. But I want to say this:
The Russian troops at many parts of the frontline are getting pounded by tubed and rocket artillery, Storm Shadow, JDAMs etc. Sometimes tanks and IFVs join the fray. The long range strikes such as in Tokmak and Melitopol in the last hours are even more interesting.
Most if not all of that "repelled" attacks Russians claim are in fact them surviving barrage after another one and having a chance to report them. In some limited cases Ukrainian forces launch probing attacks and even get through. There are already permanent liberated areas, but that is not the purpose of probing attacks.
Those few videos which sometimes appear are almost all videos from Russian sources and obviously cherry-picked. But they are not impressive either. Yes, when an army advances or launches probing attacks there are inevitable losses. During D-Day allies lost 2000 men in the first hour. But the enemy loses far more and, more importantly, the enemy has already to react in a forced way.
The main strike hasn't arrived, yet. It can arrive anywhere and anytime at the front, even areas which have not been intensively shelled. Btw. I'm still on track with my predictions. Russians, however, are currently burning down their limited (mobile) reserves which they have in order to deal with the current situation. Intelligence gathering plays an important role at this stage, too, without going into details.
Overall what I see right now is what I would expect from an Ukrainian counteroffensive. Keep calm and wait for the events to unfold.
LINK
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:45 am to StormyMcMan
Not saying that statement from the Russian MoD is false. But It makes me skeptical they’re not releasing any footage of these Ukrainian losses they’re claiming.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:46 am to StormyMcMan
Russia has claimed almost 1000 kills a day since Monday.
Good lord
Good lord
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:52 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Ukraine claims it was just the "tip of the spear"
Posted on 6/8/23 at 8:58 am to StormyMcMan
The Russians can’t tell the truth to save their lives, I don’t know why people even bother to post their bs here. Just like their artillery it’s so fricking inaccurate all you know for sure is that’s exactly what didn’t happen
Posted on 6/8/23 at 9:00 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian MOD
Why no sarcastic nickname like Baghdad Bob?
Kremlin Kevin?
Moscow Mike?
Posted on 6/8/23 at 9:04 am to NC_Tigah
Looks like the 2nd wave might be starting up
quote:
Battles for Velyka Novosilka in the Novopalivka direction are now ongoing, – Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar reports.
"The enemy is actively on the defensive in the Orikhiv area in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Our defenders repelled numerous attacks of the enemy in the area of the city of Mariinka, inflicting significant losses on him", – Maliar writes.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 9:12 am to Darth_Vader
The MOD said the Ukes were repelled in all four directions!!! It sounds like the Russians were surrounded.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 9:15 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
The Russians can’t tell the truth to save their lives, I don’t know why people even bother to post their bs here. Just like their artillery it’s so fricking inaccurate all you know for sure is that’s exactly what didn’t happen
The posters here are fair and balance despite what the Bots and Poli Board trolls say. We get both sides.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 9:16 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
Any geologists/seismologists who might be able to shed some light on the mechanics as I do question if such a small explosion would register that far away and how do they differentiate it from the other explosions likely going on?
You might find this article of interest.
Explosion "Earthquakes"
Posted on 6/8/23 at 9:23 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Not saying that statement from the Russian MoD is false. But It makes me skeptical they’re not releasing any footage of these Ukrainian losses they’re claiming.
Even their claim is that Ukraine attacked with one brigade. If that's the case, then this is definitely a reconnaissance-in-force attack and not the main assault.
Posted on 6/8/23 at 9:31 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Even their claim is that Ukraine attacked with one brigade. If that's the case, then this is definitely a reconnaissance-in-force attack and not the main assault.
Good point. There’s no way the offensive is going to be carried out by an angle brigade.
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