re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

From Russian Telegram
https://t.me/cmiye/10953

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At night, our positions were subjected to strong pressure from the enemy in the Orekhovskoye direction. The enemy rolled in waves. At least two attacks were repulsed by our military. An unprecedented amount of aviation was in the sky. Apparently, as we all assumed, the task of the Ukrainian was to break through to Tokmak, Melitopol, Berdyansk in order to cut the land corridor to the Crimea. All forces are now rushing there. The enemy managed to take several heights, but on the whole there was no deep breakthrough that night. Eyewitnesses write from there that the enemy is throwing unit after unit into battle. Lots of technology. Our aviation works in a carousel. Many have been destroyed. There is a real harvest.

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https://t.me/cmiye/10950

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??After this difficult night in the Orekhovsky sector, the fighters of the 42nd Motor Rifle Division and the 58th Army valiantly withstood the first powerful grunt, preventing a breakthrough. The data on the number of losses of the enemy and the forces involved are still abrupt, but he lost a lot of armored vehicles on this throw.

The roll-up nevertheless continued in the morning, albeit less intense. Painfully, the enemy was preparing to start.

It is also reported on the Russian aviation involved to consolidate the situation.

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https://t.me/cmiye/10935

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?? The situation on the Zaporozhye front, addition.

The enemy forces, up to a company in number, went on the attack on the settlement of Lobkovoe, managed to gain a foothold on the outskirts of the settlement, on the territory of Lobkovoe, the enemy was ambushed and lost 4 tanks, 4 infantry fighting vehicles, losses in manpower up to 40 people.
Having lost the support of some of the heavy equipment, the enemy infantry is forced to act independently, and the shooting battle continues right now.
Enemy reserves are regrouping and preparing an attack on Nesteryanka.

In the area of the "Vremievsky salient" the enemy plans to continue the tactics of "softening" the positions of the RF Armed Forces (translated from the ukrovenny, the tactics of "erasing" the territorial defense against the defense of the RF Armed Forces), in order to cling to advantageous positions and bring the main forces into battle, it is planned to attract the 110th brigade of the territorial defense , as a reinforcement.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 8 June 2023

Amidst a highly complex operational picture, heavy fighting continues along multiple sectors of the front. In most areas Ukraine holds the initiative.

Russian forces are likely still being ordered to return to the offensive as soon as possible: Chechen units have led an unsuccessful attempt to take the town of Marivka, near Donetsk city, where the front line has changed little since 2015.

Through 07 June 2023, flood levels continued to rise in the lower Dnipro, following the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam, but will likely start to recede during 08 June 2023. Shelling has complicated some attempts to evacuate displaced civilians from inundated areas.

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In particular, they are adjusting the operating mode of hydroelectric power plants and accumulating water above the Kakhovka HPP in other reservoirs of the Dnipro dam cascade in order to reduce flooding in the country's south.

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Interesting, there has been a lot of noise, mainly from Russian channels, about Ukraine not closing the Dnipro dam up to reduce water movement downriver past the breach, and that this was some how proof that they were the ones behind the dam failure.

Russian elite no longer believes that Putin will win the war - Bloomberg
Iryna Balachuk — Thursday, 8 June 2023, 12:18

Representatives of the Russian elite - even those who support the Russian invasion of Ukraine - have lost faith in Putin's ability to win the war and are considering a "frozen" conflict to be the best option for the Kremlin now, writes Bloomberg.

Source: Bloomberg with reference to seven people familiar with the situation who wished to remain anonymous.

Quote from Bloomberg: "A mood of deepening gloom is gripping Russia’s elite about prospects for President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, with even the most optimistic seeing a ‘frozen’ conflict as the best available outcome now for the Kremlin.

Many within the political and business elite are tired of the war and want it to stop, though they doubt Putin will halt the fighting. While nobody’s willing to stand up to the president over the invasion, absolute belief in his leadership has been shaken by it."

Details: The publication's sources believe that the most favourable prospect would be negotiations at the end of the year, turning the conflict into a frozen one and allowing Putin to proclaim a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, retaining part of the occupied Ukrainian territories.

Quote from Kirill Rogov, ex-adviser to the Russian government who left the country after the invasion began: "They are afraid to become scapegoats for a meaningless war. It is really surprising how widespread among the Russian elite became the idea of a chance that Putin won’t win this war."

Details: The publication believes that growing despondency will likely increase the shifting of responsibility for the failed invasion, which has already led to acute social divisions.

More Details

Seismic signals have been recorded from explosion at Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine
2023-06-07 16:28

NORSAR has analysed seismic signals from regional stations in connection with the collapse of the dam in Ukraine on Tuesday night.

Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 CET). The time and place coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there is talk of an explosion.

The magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.

The figure below shows a signal from the Bukovina (BURAR) seismic array, a monitoring station in Romania. Distance from the dam is 620 km.



NORSAR

LINK

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3rd Separate Assault Brigade update from Bakhmut;

- Yesterday, another 1.2km advance on the flanks.

- Ru 57th Bde and “Storm Z” had 30 KIA and 40 wounded.

- Ammunition, artillery and tanks were also destroyed.

Side note - “Storm Z” is Ru MoD’s own prisoner formation.

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On the topic of aviation, we got this interesting news story yesterday from Australia:

LINK

Retired Australian F/A-18 Hornet jets a step closer to joining Ukraine's war effort

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High-level international negotiations are continuing between Australia, Ukraine, and the United States over the fate of the decommissioned fighter aircraft, in what could become this country's largest-ever single transfer of military equipment to a foreign power.

The Royal Australian Air Force's fleet of Boeing "Classic" Hornets were retired in late 2021 after almost 40 years of service, which included bombing missions in the Middle East against Islamic State.

After the FA/18s were retired, Texas-based company RAVN Aerospace paid a deposit to purchase 41 of the multi-role fighters currently housed at RAAF Base Williamtown in varying states of airworthiness.

Sources familiar with the negotiations say RAVN Aerospace is willing to "on-sell" the Hornets to Ukraine but first requires approval from the White House given the fourth-generation fighters have American intellectual property (IP).

Australia's defence department would also have to formally change its contract with RAVN given the end user is currently listed as being in the United States, not Ukraine.

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"There are still many hurdles to clear before the F/A-18s can be sent to Ukraine," the official told the ABC, pointing to a shortage of appropriate personnel, training and a lack of spare parts.

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Reading that makes it sound like it's actually going to happen, though the article is clear that it's not going to happen very soon.

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The signals indicate that there is talk of an explosion.

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Am I reading this wrong? A seismic array in Romania picked up “talk of an explosion” in a dam hundreds of miles away?

This image is from the footage of the explosion that reportedly occurred after the breach.



Note the time at the bottom.

Would this be what was registered on the seismic array? Some quick checking on how quickly seismic waves moves showed they can travel between 1.8 to 7.3 km/sec depending on rock and wave type. The slowest extreme would have seen it arrive about 2:53:50, assuming the time in the footage is accurate.

Any geologists/seismologists who might be able to shed some light on the mechanics as I do question if such a small explosion would register that far away and how do they differentiate it from the other explosions likely going on?

Edit: Added questions

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Am I reading this wrong? A seismic array in Romania picked up “talk of an explosion” in a dam hundreds of miles away?

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No you read it right but the article is translated from Norwegian so there may be issues with that