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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:01 am to
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:01 am to
June 2nd ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to respond disproportionately to limited raids into Russian territory, likely to project confidence and competence in the MoD’s ability to respond to perceived threats.

Select Russian milbloggers continue to use the situation in Belgorod Oblast to criticize Russian leadership while others downplayed the recent raids.

Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine using cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on the night of June 1-2.

Head of the Russian Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate of the General Staff Colonel General Yevgeny Burdinsky announced that the Russian military will form two new military districts and other new formations by the end of 2023. Budinsky's statements likely aim to reintroduce and reamplify Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s standing proposals to significantly expand the Russian military.

Russian sources appear to be reorienting the debate about the attribution of responsibility for small-scale tactical gains in the Bakhmut area to an ongoing offensive operation to capture Marinka, a small, almost leveled settlement where Russian sources have struggled to advance since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These discussions about responsibility coincide with the reported arrival of Chechen forces to assume responsibility of the Donetsk front and complete the capture of Marinka and other settlements in the area.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on June 2 that calls for a ceasefire are unacceptable because they will freeze the current lines in place and enable Putin to consolidate control of occupied areas and prepare for future attacks on Ukraine.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Kreminna directions.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks in Marinka.

A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces made territorial gains during limited counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian sources claimed that Ukraine struck the port area in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, with Storm Shadow missiles.

Ukrainian sources continue to report that Russian cadets from higher military academies are deploying to areas near the Ukrainian border within Russia.

Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly transport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of medical rehabilitation schemes.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:11 am to
Random tweets

quote:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine criticized the so-called "peace plan" for Ukraine proposed by Indonesia.

The spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Oleh Nikolenko emphasized that there are no disputed territories between Ukraine and the russian federation to hold referendums there, and the occupation of part of Ukraine is a fact recorded in official UN documents.

Nikolenko also invited Indonesia to join the peace formula proposed by Ukraine.

LINK

quote:

Russia has failed to achieve any of the goals that Putin set at the beginning of the "Special Military Operation. This was stated by First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots Konstantin Zatulin.

"What were our goals officially declared at the beginning of the Special Military Operation? Denazification, demilitarization, neutrality of Ukraine and protection of the citizens of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, who suffered all this time. On which of these points have we achieved results? None of them.

Moreover, some of them are no longer meaningful. For example, the neutrality of Ukraine. What is the sense of making this demand? None at the moment," said the deputy of Putin's "United Russia" party.

LINK

quote:

Protests are taking place again in Moldova. Activists from pro-Russian parties oppose the "rewriting of history" and the cancellation of the May 9 celebration.

LINK

quote:

Children under 15 should not use the Internet and social networks, stated the head of the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation.

LINK
quote:

Ukraine has 'plan B' to continue exports if grain deal collapses, says the Minister of Agriculture of Ukraine Mykola Solskyi to Reuters.

According to him, Ukraine will offer insurance guarantees to companies to continue deliveries without russia’s participation in the new deal

LINK

quote:

We will not wait for an invitation." Prigozhin declared his readiness to "protect" the Belgorod region

PMC "Wagner" fighters can come to the region, if the Russian Defense Ministry does not stop the "lawlessness" taking place there in the near future, said Yevgeny Prigozhin, adding that in such a case, the PMC will ask the authorities for munitions.

The head of the "Wagner" mercenaries also claims that his conflict with Kadyrov is over

LINK

Between this and the mining comment yesterday I wonder what the odds are for Wagner vs Russian MOD Civil war

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 9:48 am to
Girkin chiming in
https://twitter.com/S1epanS/status/1664941308635500544
quote:

Some interesting key points from Igor "Strelkov" Girkin's stream yesterday. Includes his usual pessimism and begging for mobilizations as well as commentary on Transnistria's fate and the events in Belgorod.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 9:55 am to
Good article

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

quote:

Our instructors were training a Ukrainian national guard unit near the Moldovan border. When we arrived at the range, a Ukrainian unit was already on the range throwing hand grenades in an open field less than 200 meters from us, then just dropping to the ground and watching them explode without any cover. These soldiers then proceeded to conduct machine gun training, shooting from positions from the left range berm across the range (not against the backstop). Our instructors were conducting round-robin training about 150 meters behind the range, and the rounds were whistling over our heads. When we approached the person in charge, he said not to worry; he was a Ukrainian marine who had survived Mariupol, and the range was to NATO standards. The bravery and elan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not in question, but this example is a small indicator of the issues plaguing the training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces — the lack of an ingrained understanding on how to conduct uniform, consistent training.



Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
38722 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 10:30 am to
Why would the leader of the nazis flee to Jerusalem?
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 10:44 am to
Russian Logic
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 10:44 am to
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1664922561400938496
quote:

Russian reporter Sladkov, who is known for his reassuring posts, says the Russian army is completely lacking counter-battery fire, and notifies of "unpleasant events" in Zaporizhzhia direction, a place where an important Ukrainian strike might occur during the counter-offensive. He says Ukrainian artillery is better than the Russian.

Posted by PhilipMarlowe
Member since Mar 2013
21956 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 11:20 am to
quote:

Victor drives some of the hardliners nuts, like in this clip. Kazakov (the bearded Duma member) is an eternal optimist and seemingly can't stand Olevich as they have had multiple run-ins on this show as well as Solovyoz's, and Simonyan's shows.


In their defense Olevich does have a very punchable face.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16110 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

In their defense Olevich does have a very punchable face.


I thought that a year ago upon first seeing it. Not that the other's don't need their noses to be rearranged to a more bent look.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16110 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:49 pm to
European natural gas now down to Mid April 2021 price. Russia's flagship crude, Urals still at NEGATIVE $15 per barrel after discounts.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

Our instructors were training a Ukrainian national guard unit near the Moldovan border. When we arrived at the range, a Ukrainian unit was already on the range throwing hand grenades in an open field less than 200 meters from us, then just dropping to the ground and watching them explode without any cover. These soldiers then proceeded to conduct machine gun training, shooting from positions from the left range berm across the range (not against the backstop). Our instructors were conducting round-robin training about 150 meters behind the range, and the rounds were whistling over our heads. When we approached the person in charge, he said not to worry; he was a Ukrainian marine who had survived Mariupol, and the range was to NATO standards. The bravery and elan of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not in question, but this example is a small indicator of the issues plaguing the training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces — the lack of an ingrained understanding on how to conduct uniform, consistent training.


Going to any type of range with non Americans is an eye opener. They just go shoot, sometimes each other.
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8198 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 12:55 pm to
When you are being shelled, I doubt that it ever feels like you are getting enough counter battery fire. Both sides complain about the artillery advantage.

ETA: this is my assumption based on no firsthand experience
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 1:00 pm
Posted by PhilipMarlowe
Member since Mar 2013
21956 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 1:29 pm to
Absolutely. Especially that younger looking guy that hosts.
Posted by BrainKellyRespecter
Member since May 2023
238 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 2:48 pm to
It is great to see Ukraine continuing to embrace Western Democracy.
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 2:59 pm
Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 3:00 pm to
You edited because what you posted proved my point about who is behind this entire situation.
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 3:17 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 3:05 pm to
Some pro-Russian accounts are apparently anxious for the Ukrainian offensive to begin.





I personally don't think it will be long. The ground in the south is drying out from the big rains a few days ago. The forecast is for sun and rapid drying.


Posted by BrainKellyRespecter
Member since May 2023
238 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 3:28 pm to
It will be a PRIDe month offensive.

Putinist Russians Incinerated to Death
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 4:34 pm to
Follow up to my post a few pages back about a big boom in Berdyansk.

Before/after pictures of what got hit at link
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1665045114215972869
quote:

The Storm Shadows are worth every cent. Those two warehouses in the port of Russian-occupied Berdyansk and their inventory are ashes. Precise hit.


There are also multiple reports of new hits on Berdyansk today
https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1665106318032613381
quote:

More footage from ruZzian -controlled territories today.
The first video - someone writes that Belgorod People’s Republic, someone Berdyansk. Second video- Berdyansk.
Special military operation going according to plan.


In this video you can see what looks to be flak explosions in the air

https://twitter.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1665029864372436993
quote:

???????????? Ukrainian formations again attacked the settlements of the Zaporozhye region. #Russia

?? About 30 minutes ago, a series of explosions sounded in Berdyansk: according to preliminary information, Russian air defense systems intercepted six missiles.

The air defense system also went off in Melitopol, with local residents reporting five explosions in the northern suburbs.

There are currently no reports of casualties or damage.


The expected Russian response
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1665085617556815874
quote:

Remember the smoke in #Berdyansk earlier? All the missiles shot down says #Russia?

Well the occupiers' propaganda channels published this of a "shot down Tochka-U" missile fired by #Ukraine.

And we all believe it landed right there and not a single window pane broke??????

This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 4:36 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 4:42 pm to
It is very obvious that the tempo of the conflict is increasing right now.

Here is a video from the town of Shebekino (supposedly) which is not very deep into Russia.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1665098193644732417
quote:

Chaos and lawlessness in Russia: Looting is out of control in Shebekino as Russian police and military have fled the city. Everything is getting cleaned out - from groceries to mobile phones.


Map of location
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Shebekino,+Belgorod+Oblast,+Russia/@50.2684309,36.6729814,9.75z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x41265f9bb5370a23:0xff5abe9f45f9ebce!8m2!3d50.4118663!4d36.8947618!16zL20vMGM5Zjlt?entry=ttu
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 4:51 pm to
Brilliant to hit the border towns.
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