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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 6/3/23 at 4:55 pm to
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 4:55 pm to
In my opinion, this is a direct precursor to the offensive. Ukraine is creating an environment that will force russia to respond by strengthening its forces in this region. Those are forces Russia won't be able to use:

1) To strengthen their lines in the south
2) As reserves to deploy in front of Ukraianes axis of advance
3) As forces in a counter-attack.

It will weaken any area where Russia removes troops from the battlefield to use them to strengthen the Belgorod region.

Ukraine will be paying close attention to any Russia troop movements, when they think they have achieved the maximum effect, that's when they will kick off their offensive.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1664972810383507458
quote:

The Russian rebels in the Belgorod/Bilhorod Oblast achieved with less than 500 fighters absolute chaos along the border. Hit-and-run, next target, destroy regime bases and soldiers, next target, rinse and repeat. This is exactly how a rebel army operates, until it establishes permanent bases.

On top of that, the whole episode showed how weak Russia has become. And no, only fools tell you that this is the way to defend a border. It is not. You preemptively strike at the first sign when seeing the enemy to mass troops along the border, especially in wartime.

This event forced redeployments of the Russian regime army which would have been needed along the frontlines in Ukraine. That alone is already another Russian regime defeat.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 5:05 pm to
A few more pictures from Berdyansk





Video of strike https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1664560955982848001/video/1
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5724 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 5:18 pm to
From UKRINFORM

Five loud explosions rock Melitopol
03.06.2023

Five loud explosions rocked the temporarily captured town of Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region.

"Residents of Melitopol report more than five loud explosions which were well heard in the northern part of the town," Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov posted on Telegram.

According to Fedorov, the explosions resulted in thick smoke in the north of Melitopol.


This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 5:19 pm
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30652 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 5:18 pm to
quote:

In my opinion, this is a direct precursor to the offensive. Ukraine is creating an environment that will force russia to respond by strengthening its forces in this region. Those are forces Russia won't be able to use:

1) To strengthen their lines in the south
2) As reserves to deploy in front of Ukraianes axis of advance
3) As forces in a counter-attack.

It will weaken any area where Russia removes troops from the battlefield to use them to strengthen the Belgorod region.



More military buzzwords:

Ukraine is setting conditions (shaping for the youngins) by creating dilemmas for the Russians. A problem has a solution but dilemmas have more than one solution and they all suck. One of the best dilemmas to create is one that splits a finite set of assets.

Early on in this thread, there was a discussion of the usefulness of paratroopers and one of my points in favor of paratroopers is they are extremely good at creating dilemmas. A prime example was Operation Northern Delay when the 173rd jumped into northern Iraq.

Dilemmas put the enemy in a no-win situation and the only correct option is to pick the least bad reaction quickly, the problem is even many military leaders will fail by making errors of omission and delay their reaction usually making the situation worse.


Anyone that has been in the military and likely anyone with some sense can see the guiding hand of the US all over Ukraine's strategy and upper-level tactics.
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 5:22 pm to
Not sure if this account has been shared before but ran across it during my usual rounds.

https://twitter.com/Orion__int/status/1665050764119801856

According to them they have been tracking and plotting ISR flights since January 2022. The below map is a record from between March '23 to May '23. The thread also contains an animated map showing the overlay of each planes flight paths.

Fascinating to see just how active flights have been around the Ukraine theatre - would be interesting to see a comparison of the previous 12 months and how they differed.



Edit: Corrected date
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 8:45 pm
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 5:26 pm to
There are also reports of TU-95MS up again tonight so further missile attacks are expected.

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1665101054235807744

quote:

Faytuks News ?
@Faytuks
Confirmed: 6 russian Tu-95Ms strategic bombers are heading to the Caspian sea. Missile launches against Ukraine is all but certain.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105473 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 5:46 pm to
Interesting that Sweden is so active.
Posted by TitusCrow
Member since Mar 2020
74 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:02 pm to
This is a cool map, and they do some other interesting 3D modeling projects. Should point out though, that image is only the last two months worth of flights.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:07 pm to
That's interesting, thanks for posting!
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:12 pm to
It has been a while since a good updated set of maps has been posted.

You can right-click on these and choose open in a new tab to zoom in.

ETA: Well that didn't work.

Go here if you want to see them
https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-462-summary/
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 6:14 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:22 pm to
At the :13 point in the video a system called Artemis is plotted. I haven't ever heard of Artemis so I looked it up.

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/12/inside-armys-newest-spy-plane/380964/

quote:

Inside the Army’s Newest Spy Plane
Already watching over Ukraine, Leidos’ ARTEMIS is part of the service’s growing fleet of contractor-owned intelligence aircraft.

From a distance, the all-white business jet parked neatly in a hangar underneath a giant American flag looks a lot like the other sleek, luxurious private planes arriving and departing from this Virginia airport. But inside, this plane is far more working class.

The cabin, full of server racks, looks more like an IT closet than an executive aircraft. The seats are cloth and two computer consoles are connected to a dozen or so antennas protruding from the plane’s belly.

To the U.S. Army, this plane—or something like it—is a ticket to the future of warfare, built to monitor the complex communications of an adversary nation-state from standoff distance, rather than the simpler chatter of insurgents right below.

Called ARTEMIS, the plane uses its antennas and computers to intercept and decipher enemy communications. The aircraft itself is made by Bombardier, but the specialized modifications are made by Virginia-based defense and technology firm Leidos.



And another article discussing it
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/11/15/experimental-artemis-aircraft-used-in-real-world-ukraine-operations
quote:

Experimental ARTEMIS Aircraft Used in ‘Real-World’ Operations

ARTEMIS was recently pulled out of the Project Convergence experiments in Yuma Proving Grounds, Arizona, to help U.S. European Command keep tabs on a reported buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Evans said.

“It was supposed to be here all through the end of last week. We terminated support to PC '21. We put it back in Europe to cover Ukraine,” Evans said.

Project Convergence is the Army’s version of the Pentagon's joint all-domain command and control concept, which calls for a seamless mesh of sensors and shooters connected to a network, all working at computational speeds. ARTEMIS was one of some 100 technologies the Army tested during the months-long experiments.





ETA: Having a hot war to test and debug, is a gift from Russia to the US.

From the 2nd Article
quote:

Defense contractor Leidos integrated the jet and the sensors, which includes the high accuracy detection and exploitation system, or HADES, which has multiple eavesdropping sensors. L-3 Communications Integrated Systems and Raytheon Applied Signal Technology have provided prototype sensors for the program, which is intended to replace legacy fixed-wing sensor platforms such as the Guardrail.

But the prototypes, along with the aircraft, are being put to good use, Evans said.

“ARTEMIS is ... more than an idea. It's a real-world combat system,” he said.

Yet, “it is still an experiment of sorts. We don't have the central configuration nailed down completely right. But we're getting close,” he added.


Combine this with AI, Drones, networked artillery & missiles, and Integrated Combat Management Systems (Like the one the US gave Ukraine recently) and you have what the future of warfare will look like.

This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 6:28 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:45 pm to
"Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest you be like him yourself."

Proverbs 26:4
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8182 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

"Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest you be like him yourself."

Proverbs 26:4


Sorry, not following you?
Posted by facher08
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2011
6139 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

Sorry, not following you?


It means ignore the trolls.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21024 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 7:46 pm to
Did not mean to respond to you.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4691 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:16 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukrainian forces are prepared to start counteroffensive operations.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin escalated his feud with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely hoping to draw criticism back to the Russian military leadership and downplay his ongoing conflict with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov. Prigozhin’s flamboyant allegations are also likely an attempt to retain his heightened initiative within the Russian information space following the capture of Bakhmut.

Prigozhin seized on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner Group forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command.

A Russian Duma Deputy stated during a public forum on June 1 that Russia has failed to accomplish any of its articulated goals for the “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line and northwest and south of Kreminna.

Regular Russian forces have likely largely relieved Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.

Russian forces focused offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line near Marinka.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continued efforts to establish defensive positions in Kherson Oblast.

The Russian military leadership is attempting to create and staff new military formations.

Likely Ukrainian partisans assassinated a Russian collaborator in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.


Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8657 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:32 pm to
I would like to know what was in those 2 warehouses at Berdyansk port. Looks like it was hit with 2 Storm Shadows so it had to be something fairly important to spend $2 million on. It didn’t have a huge secondary explosion like you would normally see from an ammo or fuel depot. You’d think if tanks were in there they would have popped their turrets and be visible. We will never likely know.
This post was edited on 6/3/23 at 8:34 pm
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

that image is only the last two months worth of flights.


Thanks for spotting that, I misread the thread and didn't double check the actual image - I have corrected my post.

Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

Interesting that Sweden is so active.


Pulling their weight to show commitment to NATO perhaps?
Posted by OutsideObserver
Oceania.
Member since Dec 2022
784 posts
Posted on 6/3/23 at 8:50 pm to
quote:

At the :13 point in the video a system called Artemis is plotted. I haven't ever heard of Artemis so I looked it up.



Nice spotting, thanks for the info in return.
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