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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:54 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 5/27/23 at 6:54 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Wagner Group mercenaries appear to be withdrawing from Bakhmut city to reconstitute and regroup in the rear as Russian offensive operations decrease in and around the city.
The Russian military command may be transferring Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut city.
The Russian transfer of DNR elements to Bakhmut may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
The Russian military command appears to be reinforcing Bakhmut’s flanks with regular formations, however.
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership.
Ukrainian officials denied Western reporting that suggested that a Chinese diplomat expressed interest in a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine amidst the likely renewal of Russia’s information campaign surrounding negotiations.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk and south of Kreminna.
Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian forces continued to strike rear logistics nodes in southern Zaporizhia oblast.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) warned on May 26 that Russian forces are preparing to conduct large scale provocations to create radiological danger at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
The Russian Ministry of Justice registered the civil society group “Council of Mothers of Wives” as a foreign agent on May 26, likely to curb resistance to ongoing and future Russian force generation efforts.
Russian authorities are escalating efforts to portray Russia as a safe guardian of Ukrainian children.
0
Posted on 5/27/23 at 7:27 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I’ve always mistakenly sort of put the border between the Sunni & Shia world as the border between Iraqi and Iran. It’s not as simple ad that though.
Thanks Great Britain. God they screwed up the Middle East.
And OBL paid for sanctuary in Afghanistan. Cash > religion
Posted on 5/27/23 at 7:41 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
StormyMcMan
Posted on 5/27/23 at 8:02 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Ah. Ok. That makes sense. I thought both were Shia. It’s hard to tell what part of that world is Shia or Sunni.
Here's a handy guide for you. LINK
Shia groups live mainly in Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and India, with groups in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Yemen, and Turkey, among many others.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 8:11 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I wouldn’t think the Taliban and Iran would be enemies. After all, both a fundamentalist Islamic states. Can anyone shed some light on what’s behind this?
The Taliban are part of the only group of Hanafi fundamentalists, a South Asian variety of fundamentalism called Deobandi. Historically, they, like other Sunni fundamentalists, dislike Shia groups. In fact, South Asia was where Shia persecution was extremely prevalent up until the modern day.
The Taliban and Iran nearly fought a war in the late 90's over border issues. The Iranians fought on the American side during the 2001 Uprising in Herat, but later started supporting the Taliban to undermine the US. The Iranians also supported ethnic minorities like the Hazara, who are Shia. Iran at one point had around 2 million to 3 million Afghan refugees from various conflicts, most of whom had never integrated into Iranian public life. For that reason, Iran's civilian interest in expatriating those refugees collided with its military interest in undermining the US military presence right next door.
It gets a lot more complicated than that, but that's a brief intro.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:11 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
We were expecting those American weapons that fell into the Taliban's hands to turn up somewhere. I didn't have "pointed at Iran" on my Bingo card
Trump ain't the only one that can play 4D chess.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 9:45 pm to crazy4lsu
The vast majority of the Muslim world is Sunni. All of North Africa, all of Indonesia, etc.
Important Shia areas include:
- Iran is mostly Shia. Sunni minorities exist among several tribes, but especially among the Kurds in the northwest. Much of the last uprising in Iran was in Kurdish areas, as Kurds suffer linguistic and cultural as well as religious discrimination.
- Iraq is majority Shia. Baghdad is split between Shia and Sunni, and the area to the north and west of the capital is mostly Sunni, including Mosul.
- Syria is mostly Sunni, but Assad is Alawite, and the Alawites are an offshoot of Shia Islam. Because Assad is of a minority religion, his oppressive government actually allows religious freedom, which is why many Christians actually supported Assad over the rebels (many of whom, including Al-Queda, are devotees of radical Sunni Islam).
- Lebanon has a strong Shia minority, dominated by the political structure of Hezbollah, supported by Iran. This is a key factor in Lebanon's frequent wars with Israel.
So, from Lebanon, across Syria, and Iraq to Iran, there is Shia control.
- In Yemen, the Houthi rebels are Shia and supported by Iran, while the other groups are Sunni.
- Azerbaijan is mostly Shia, though decades of atheist Soviet influence means that most people are nominal Muslims only, and what religion that exists is very moderate.
Important Shia areas include:
- Iran is mostly Shia. Sunni minorities exist among several tribes, but especially among the Kurds in the northwest. Much of the last uprising in Iran was in Kurdish areas, as Kurds suffer linguistic and cultural as well as religious discrimination.
- Iraq is majority Shia. Baghdad is split between Shia and Sunni, and the area to the north and west of the capital is mostly Sunni, including Mosul.
- Syria is mostly Sunni, but Assad is Alawite, and the Alawites are an offshoot of Shia Islam. Because Assad is of a minority religion, his oppressive government actually allows religious freedom, which is why many Christians actually supported Assad over the rebels (many of whom, including Al-Queda, are devotees of radical Sunni Islam).
- Lebanon has a strong Shia minority, dominated by the political structure of Hezbollah, supported by Iran. This is a key factor in Lebanon's frequent wars with Israel.
So, from Lebanon, across Syria, and Iraq to Iran, there is Shia control.
- In Yemen, the Houthi rebels are Shia and supported by Iran, while the other groups are Sunni.
- Azerbaijan is mostly Shia, though decades of atheist Soviet influence means that most people are nominal Muslims only, and what religion that exists is very moderate.
Posted on 5/27/23 at 10:12 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Good point. I’ve always mistakenly sort of put the border between the Sunni & Shia world as the border between Iraqi and Iran. It’s not as simple ad that though.
30 year drought in Iran and there is a dispute over rights to water from the Helmland River.
quote:
LINK
It's not always about religion.
Edit: corrected error, drought is in Iran.
This post was edited on 5/27/23 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 5/28/23 at 12:37 am to CitizenK
Looks like Ukraine has made some gains north of Bakhmut, confirmed by Rybar.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1662213962023452672
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1662381928559923200
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1662213962023452672
quote:
To the front. Quite a lot has happened north of Bakhmut. The AFU has taken over much of the area south west of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, cutting off Russian supplies to Dubovo-Vasylivka. It is unclear how far Russian troops have withdrawn, but the AFU has taken over strategic places.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1662381928559923200
quote:
I like how, among other things, Crybar mentions a 1km retreat of Russians northeast of Bakhmut.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 5:50 am to Chromdome35
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 28 May 2023
In recent weeks, the tone of public debate in Russia has moved beyond merely punishing those who criticise the 'Special Military Operation' towards mandating citizens to actively make sacrifices in support of the war effort.
Russian state-backed media and business groups have petitioned the Economic Ministry to authorise a six-day week for workers in the face of the economic demands of the war, apparently without additional pay. On 21 May 2023, leading Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan mooted that citizens should work for two extra hours in munitions factories each day, after their regular jobs.
The evolving tone of the conversations clearly echoes a Soviet-style sense of societal compulsion. It also highlights how the leadership highly likely identifies economic performance as a decisive factor in winning the war.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 28 May 2023
In recent weeks, the tone of public debate in Russia has moved beyond merely punishing those who criticise the 'Special Military Operation' towards mandating citizens to actively make sacrifices in support of the war effort.
Russian state-backed media and business groups have petitioned the Economic Ministry to authorise a six-day week for workers in the face of the economic demands of the war, apparently without additional pay. On 21 May 2023, leading Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan mooted that citizens should work for two extra hours in munitions factories each day, after their regular jobs.
The evolving tone of the conversations clearly echoes a Soviet-style sense of societal compulsion. It also highlights how the leadership highly likely identifies economic performance as a decisive factor in winning the war.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 5:54 am to cypher
More than 40 Russian drones shot down over Kyiv overnight
by The Kyiv Independent news desk May 28, 2023 7:01 AM
Kyiv's air defenses shot down over 40 drones Russia launched at the capital overnight on May 28, in what the Kyiv City Military Administration says was the largest drone attack on the city since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
The administration wrote on Telegram that the drones were mostly Iranian-made Shahed drones and that the attack occurred in several waves.
The first explosions in the capital were reported after 1 a.m. local time. Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko wrote on Telegram after 3:00 a.m. local time that the city's air defenses were once again at work to shoot down aerial targets above Kyiv.
According to local authorities, one person was killed and at least one was injured as a result of debris caused from drones that were shot down.
The drone attack is the 14th mass assault on Kyiv since the start of May.
Edit for context (from Wikipedia):
Kyiv Day, or officially the Day of Kyiv, is a holiday in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv that is usually celebrated on the last Sunday of May.
by The Kyiv Independent news desk May 28, 2023 7:01 AM
Kyiv's air defenses shot down over 40 drones Russia launched at the capital overnight on May 28, in what the Kyiv City Military Administration says was the largest drone attack on the city since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
The administration wrote on Telegram that the drones were mostly Iranian-made Shahed drones and that the attack occurred in several waves.
The first explosions in the capital were reported after 1 a.m. local time. Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko wrote on Telegram after 3:00 a.m. local time that the city's air defenses were once again at work to shoot down aerial targets above Kyiv.
According to local authorities, one person was killed and at least one was injured as a result of debris caused from drones that were shot down.
The drone attack is the 14th mass assault on Kyiv since the start of May.
Edit for context (from Wikipedia):
Kyiv Day, or officially the Day of Kyiv, is a holiday in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv that is usually celebrated on the last Sunday of May.
This post was edited on 5/28/23 at 11:09 am
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:12 am to cypher
quote:
According to local authorities, one person was killed and at least one was injured as a result of debris caused from drones that were shot down.
Is Kiev safer than Orleans Parish? I'm curious see some stats.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 7:26 am to cypher
quote:
In recent weeks, the tone of public debate in Russia has moved beyond merely punishing those who criticise the 'Special Military Operation' towards mandating citizens to actively make sacrifices in support of the war effort.
I always try to relate these statements to something familiar and they’re always simply unimaginable.
For example, imagine Biden telling the US populous they have to work in ammo factories while our sons and husbands are getting their asses kicked while trying to battle Mexico. The absurdity of it is wild.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 8:19 am to TigersSEC2010
quote:
imagine Biden telling the US populous they have to work in ammo factories while our sons and husbands are getting their asses kicked while trying to battle Mexico. The absurdity of it is wild.
This is actually something that I have absolutely no problem wrapping my brain around at all
Posted on 5/28/23 at 8:31 am to TigersSEC2010
Didn't the US do something similar during WW2?
Posted on 5/28/23 at 10:14 am to ticklechain
.+.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 10:31 am to ticklechain
The factories hired Mexicans, women and black men not before employed
Posted on 5/28/23 at 10:53 am to cypher
quote:
In recent weeks, the tone of public debate in Russia has moved beyond merely punishing those who criticise the 'Special Military Operation' towards mandating citizens to actively make sacrifices in support of the war effort.
Putin wanted desperately for this war to be seen at home as being a limited thing. That’s why he called the invasion a “special military operation” and didn’t fully mobilize the country and put it in a war footing. Fast forward to today and it’s clear that strategy hasn’t worked. Now Russia either has to actually go on a full wartime footing or cut bait. The problem Putin faces now is one of morale among the Russian population. Do they have the stomach for it? I am highly skeptical they are.
This post was edited on 5/28/23 at 10:54 am
Posted on 5/28/23 at 12:24 pm to Darth_Vader
The US half assed it in Viet Nam for years and look at what happened. Putin is making the same mistake.
Posted on 5/28/23 at 1:39 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
That’s why he called the invasion a “special military operation” and didn’t fully mobilize the country and put it in a war footing. Fast forward to today and it’s clear that strategy hasn’t worked. Now Russia either has to actually go on a full wartime footing or cut bait.
There's more to it than optics; a real full mobilization would be economically crippling, even without a single sanction existing. The Russian's can't really fully mobilize, and haven't been able to for a while-- things were bad at the end of the Soviet era, and only have gotten worse in that regard; entire sectors, like health care, would be completely gutted-- not to skim along, wartime service reduction levels, but to barely recognizable as ongoing concerns.
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