re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Does Russia have the combat power available to send into Belarus ?

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I see your point, but would argue this has further emboldened Polands security policy which greatly strengthens their security. They have expanded their armed forces significantly, have paid for plans to vastly upgrade their equipment, have been diligent about their borders with Belarus and Kalingrad, I think have greatly strengthened ties with us, the Baltics, and Ukraine. Have seen Finland and Sweden ascend to NATO which gives them more influence as Finland, in particular, understands the Russian threat as they do.

All things the same, yes this has damaged their security, but they’ve done an excellent job of eliminating the “all things the same” part.

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We're now on D+5 of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was predictably launched into the Bakhmut flanks after Prigozhin spent months losing his mind on social media.

The modest gains shown have cost multiple AFU brigades and thousands of casualties to achieve.

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In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.
Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

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Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin has spoken several times to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous.
A U.S. official also cautioned that there are similar doubts in Washington about Prigozhin’s intentions. The Ukrainian and U.S. officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

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Against that tense backdrop, Prigohzin has carried on a secret relationship with Ukrainian intelligence that, in addition to phone calls, includes in-person meetings with HUR officers in an unspecified country in Africa, one document states. Wagner forces provide security to several governments on the continent.

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According to one document, Prigozhin told a Ukrainian intelligence officer that the Russian military was struggling with ammunition supplies. He advised Ukrainian forces to push forward with an assault on the border of Crimea, which Russia has illegally annexed, while Russian troop morale was low. The report also referred to other intelligence noting that Prigozhin was aware of plummeting morale among Wagner forces and that some of his fighters had balked at orders to deploy in the Bakhmut area under heavy fire, for fear of suffering more casualties.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment about Prigozhin’s communications with Ukraine.

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When informed that U.S. intelligence documents revealed Prigozhin’s communications with Ukrainian intelligence, the mercenary commander appeared to make light of the situation. “Yes of course I can confirm this information, we have nothing to hide from the foreign special services. Budanov and I are still in Africa,” Prigohzin wrote on Sunday via his Telegram channel.

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If this is actually true Prigozhin is a good as dead.

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