re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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If Lukashenko is being taken out, expect Russia to swoop in and assert control quickly.

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Perhaps I am in the minority here, but I think Lukashenko dying right now is terrible news for Russia.

The gloves are off between the west and Russia. The collective West will have few reservations about pushing in resources to back an anti-Putin horse to replace Lukashenko. Russia simply doesn’t have the ability to dictate that succession at the present time, and Belarus will almost certainly enter into a period of instability and asymmetric conflict within its borders.

Russia is currently choking on its attempt to swallow Ukraine. The last thing it needs is another theater of conflict to open up.

If Putin loses Erdogan and Lukashenko in a matter of months he is doomed.

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Zelenskyi has arrived in Paris. After his trip to Italy and Germany he will now visit Macron and talk about further support for Ukraine.

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LINK

Italy generally keeps its donations quiet, so we don't know what Meloni promised Ukraine. But Macron broadcasts donations loudly, so we'll see what he comes up with in terms of gifts.

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Perhaps I am in the minority here, but I think Lukashenko dying right now is terrible news for Russia.

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One of the issues that has received comparatively little discussion during the war is the way that Belarus becoming a pure vassal of Russia has damaged Poland's security.

Before the war, many in Poland thought that Belarus was something of a buffer state between them and Russia. Now, they know that they essentially have Russia on their eastern border.

If Lukashenko recovers or if another Russian puppet is put in place in Belarus, then the status of Belarus will be a big factor in any end-of-war negotiations, both for Ukraine and for NATO. For the US, for example, a truly independent Belarus is going to be a condition of ending the sanctions.

I don’t know if you are In minority but you are correct, a significant number is not significant majority of people in Belarus are anti Russian now and if he dies it’s going to be a civil war. You can expect Poland and NATO to pour weapons and money into the conflict.

Russia isn’t competently fighting one war, so I don’t see how that they can fight a messy Civil war too.

If the other side wasn’t potentially destabilizing terrorist we would have opened up the conflict in Syria.

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82nd Air Assault Brigade

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Just so much wrong with this....

Yeah I saw this the other day about the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. Just based on the weapons they possess you’d think they are the tip of the spear wherever Ukraine decides to attack. Also saw an article that said Russia has lost 48 artillery pieces in the last 48 hours alone.

Meanwhile, while I'd like to see @wartranslated do a full translation of this rant, I've seen it enough places to believe that the following is an accurate summary:

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Strelkov-Girkin said that Prigozhin is a Jew who is being pushed into power by another Jew, Sergei Kiriyenko, and therefore Prigozhin should not be allowed to power in Russia.

The theme of the Jewish conspiracy has finally been revealed.

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Another post said that Girkin referred to Prigozhin as "a Jewish project."

If, like me, you think that too many Americans believe stupid conspiracy theories, then you should know that almost everyone in Russia believes stupid conspiracy theories.

But, considering how stupid and oppressive their government actually is, perhaps it's understandable.

Of course, I don't know (and I don't think that any analyst does), but I now believe that the four aircraft kills yesterday were the result of NATO air-to-air missiles fired from Ukrainian MiG-29s.

I think we talked about it at the time, but do y'all remember this Politico article from March 7th?

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The U.S. military is studying whether it’s possible to integrate advanced Western air-to-air missiles with Ukraine’s Soviet-era fighter jets, in the latest attempt to jury-rig old platforms with new capabilities ahead of what’s expected to be a bloody spring.

Officials are looking into whether AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, designed to be fired from Western fighter jets such as the U.S.-made F-16, can be mounted on Ukraine’s existing MiGs, according to two Defense Department officials and another person involved in the discussions.

If the work is successful, it would be the first time the U.S. has given Ukrainian aircraft the capability to fire air-to-air missiles, some of which are already in their inventory.

The effort, if successful, could be part of a solution to Kyiv’s need for additional firepower and air defenses as both Ukraine and Russia prepare for major offensives this spring.

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But integrating the AIM-120s with MiGs would be the first time the U.S. has provided the capability to fire air-to-air missiles from aircraft, however. Ukraine already has a number of the missiles, which were provided by European countries, including the U.K. and Belgium, which are fired from Western-provided air defense systems such as the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System.

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The main problem is that the American and Soviet systems are so different that the missile and aircraft can’t communicate with each other.

The military is working on: “How do you mount this thing? Can you get all the electronics in the aircraft to talk to this thing that wasn’t meant to be launched?” said one of the DoD officials.

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Poland just recently delivered 14 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. I personally believe that those MiGs were successfully modified.

Here's a Twitter thread from March that reviewed previous attempts to put Western radar and air-to-air missiles on MiGs. Simply put, much of the engineering work had already been done.

I believe that Ukraine got enough intelligence that the four Russian aircraft were headed for its airspace such that it was able to have a couple of MiGs ambush those aircraft with AMRAAM or even Meteor missiles.

I further think that, upon receipt of these 14 Westernized MiGs from Poland recently, that Ukraine is likely sending the rest of its MiGs to Poland for retrofits, on a rolling basis.

Fire-and-forget missiles and the ability to hit aircraft beyond visual range would be a tremendous gamechanger for the Ukrainian air force that would substantially reduce the potential of Russia's new tactic of dropping glide bombs.

This, in my view, partially explains why Washington has been so insistent upon not giving F-16s to Ukraine. The complications of "escalation" or a China deal notwithstanding, our DoD came up with a plan to dramatically enhance the air combat ability of the Ukrainian air force, without the need to train pilots, mechanics, etc. on a new jet.

I reject the other three theories on how the aircraft were downed:

1) Friendly fire. This is what Ukraine itself has claimed happened, which is unusual. Ukraine would normally want to take credit for downing these aircraft or at least hint at it (they often talk about things like "smoking accidents." The fact that Ukraine says that it was Russian friendly fire makes it unlikely, in my view.

I simply cannot imagine how Russian air defense could have made four mistakes -- all at the same time. Nor do I know of any EW method that Ukraine has that could have confused Russian air defense into making that mistake. Furthermore, as I understand it, these four aircraft were all still heading towards Ukraine. If they were returning from the front and heading back into Russia, then the "friendly-fire theory" would make more sense.

2) Ukrainian SOF with MANPADS. I could believe this if it were one aircraft. I find it difficult to believe that a SOF group would be moving around in Russia with four MANPADS. In addition, there's the fact that all four aircraft were struck with enough power that none of the crews were able to eject. I would have to look to find the video again, but one of the jets basically had its nose torn off by the strike, so I conclude that the missiles that hit the Russian aircraft were likely more powerful than MANPADS.

3) Patriot or NASAMS pushed up to the border. I can't completely eliminate this possibility, but it seems extremely risky for Ukraine to do something like this. And could they have had the intelligence far enough in advance to ensure that the launcher was in place to do this, without possibly exposing the launcher to Russian attack for some time? Ukraine has so few of these modern air defense systems, so I really struggle to believe that they would risk one in such a way.


Again, these are just random ramblings out of my head and from reading stupid crap on twitter. I am not an expert on these things. LSUPilot, I would love to get your opinion on these thoughts.

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One of the issues that has received comparatively little discussion during the war is the way that Belarus becoming a pure vassal of Russia has damaged Poland's security.

Before the war, many in Poland thought that Belarus was something of a buffer state between them and Russia. Now, they know that they essentially have Russia on their eastern border.

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I see your point, but would argue this has further emboldened Polands security policy which greatly strengthens their security. They have expanded their armed forces significantly, have paid for plans to vastly upgrade their equipment, have been diligent about their borders with Belarus and Kalingrad, I think have greatly strengthened ties with us, the Baltics, and Ukraine. Have seen Finland and Sweden ascend to NATO which gives them more influence as Finland, in particular, understands the Russian threat as they do.

All things the same, yes this has damaged their security, but they’ve done an excellent job of eliminating the “all things the same” part.