re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Here's some more quality cope:

Armchair Warlord:

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We're now on D+5 of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which was predictably launched into the Bakhmut flanks after Prigozhin spent months losing his mind on social media.

The modest gains shown have cost multiple AFU brigades and thousands of casualties to achieve.

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In the coming weeks, France will train and equip several battalions with tens of armored vehicles and light tanks including AMX-10RC. Besides, France is focusing its effort in supporting Ukraine’s air defense capacities in order to defend its population against Russian strikes. 

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Britain also announced it would begin basic training of Ukrainian pilots this summer, "hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets – Ukraine’s fighter jets of choice."

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Bakhmut update. Thread

1/ Based on testimonies from PoW's, it has been revealed that several Russian regiments, predominantly composed of mobilized troops, were hastily deployed from rear positions without training or preparation after Prigozhin's statement about Bakhmut.

2/ These regiments were swiftly relocated to the flanks of Bakhmut, where deployed companies and battalions suffered devastating losses. Within a short period of three to five days, the casualties exceeded 40%, primarily comprising soldiers killed in action.

3/ The enemy soldiers reported a complete absence of commanders at the frontline, along with a severe lack of communication and the absence of clear orders. They complained over the mistreatment from the Wagner forces - who treat them as the lowest caste

4/ It was also reported that Wagner forces have assumed control over some of the Ministry of Defense units in the Bakhmut area. Because of that, there is a mistrust between units, as soldiers are systematically assigned by Wagner to areas where their chances of survival are low.

5/ Multiple prisoners of war expressed skepticism regarding Wagner's claims of limited ammunition and equipment. They claim to have significantly fewer resources in terms of ammunition and equipment compared to the Wagner forces.

6/ This situation further worsened when the Russian Ministry of Defense started deploying units consisting of convicts, a practice that was previously exclusive to Wagner forces. These convicts, have limited military value and sustain high losses.

7/ In the city, Ukrainians continue to face a challenging situation, while situation on flanks continue to decline for russians. Their attempts to reinforce with low-quality units have resulted in heavy losses and a significant blow to russian troops morale.

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Long-range drones with a range over 200km? Hundreds of them. Russia is so screwed. Ukraine doesn't really even need GLSDB now.

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Armchair Warlord

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1/3

To the idealists who keep repeating that the Ukraine war can end very simply right now if Russia just withdraws its troops, a much-needed dose of realism:

There are only 2 options before Ukraine at this stage:

2/3

1. Ukraine surrenders, agrees to demilitarise & be neutral, and gives up 9 Russian oblasts to Russia.

2. Ukraine is forcibly demilitarised by the complete annihilation of its army, is forced into neutrality at gunpoint, and watches as Russia annexes the 9 oblasts.

3/3

Those who want peace and are realistic would prefer the first option.

Only the irretrievably stupid or callous would prefer the second.

Because those are really the only two choices there are.

Compris?

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The $48 billion Ukraine aid package that Congress approved in December has about $6 billion left, meaning U.S. funding for weapons and supplies could dry up by midsummer.

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“It is critical that the administration provide Ukraine with what it needs in time to defend and take back its sovereign territory,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) told Pentagon leaders during a hearing on Thursday. “We expect the administration not to wait until the eleventh hour if the Ukrainians need more before the end of the fiscal year.”

The White House is discussing a new package, and it will be timed to keep support for Ukraine flowing, said a senior administration official who was granted anonymity to speak ahead of an official announcement.

The official added that it’s unclear how Ukraine’s needs might change during or after the counteroffensive, but that the administration is “fully committed” to supporting Kyiv during and after the fight “for the long haul.”

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“It’s clear that it will” happen, Collins said. “I expect there will need to be a supplemental at some point. It’s also clear that it’s taken far too long to get munitions and tanks delivered to the Ukrainians.”

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This month, the U.S. announced a $1.2 billion package of drones, artillery, air defense systems, and software and technical help to network Ukraine’s air defenses. All of those items will be placed on contract with U.S. defense companies, and are meant to help support Ukraine in the long term. That package leaves $4 billion in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, further draining the money available.

One congressional aide who closely tracks the issue estimated that, based on the rate of announcements, the money to draw down existing U.S. stockpiles will expire in July. That would mean the flow of equipment could be disrupted if Kyiv has to wait an extended period for a new tranche of funding.

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Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said it would be a “mistake” for the Biden administration to bank on an additional Ukrainian supplemental funding measure.

“It looks like they’re expecting some sort of a supplemental at some point — they’re going to come back and ask for more money,” Rubio said. “I think that’s a mistake. I think it should be in their baseline” budget.

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If you noodle it around…drones here are being outfitted for many aspects of warfare, from intel to combat, and they can also jam and defeat jamming. A list of all the things they are being used for here, and the no-shite capabilities that will come soon, is a long one. They can act as comm repeaters for low-powered field radios, and can work together (mini swarm). Once all of this gets fully ironed out, it is going to change warfare.

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I guess I am thinking these small, cheap drones (with shaped charges) will become as prevalent as ammo for say, sniper rifles. Mental masturbation. A head crash would drill a hole right through the brain case and brain, completely through. It would be a bit messy since organics are structurally different than concrete or steel. One also has to consider thin skin targets, such as truck radiators, airplanes, fuel storage tanks and so on.

Of course a shaped charge does not live in a vacuum, it needs a power and initiation means, but that is available now.

The real key here is using the full capabilities of drones as is possible and practical now, and combine them with human recon and then feed all that back to assault troops, who then use them in a combat information and direct combat mode.

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