re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9.

Pervasive issues with Russian combat capabilities, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces struck a command center where Ukrainian military commanders and officials were located, likely to support an ongoing effort to frame Russian operations as constraining Ukrainian capabilities to launch a counteroffensive.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully shot down a Russian missile using the Patriot missile defense system. The Biden administration also announced a new $1.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Kupyansk and Kreminna areas.

Russian and Wagner Group forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut on May 10, despite Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s previous threat that Wagner would withdraw from the area at midnight.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front.

Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an annual decree calling up citizens from reserves for military training.

Russian occupation authorities are continuing the removal of Ukrainian residents from their homes in occupied areas under the guise of humanitarian evacuations.

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I think this one needed some more info

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constraining Ukrainian capabilities to launch a counteroffensive. Russian milbloggers claimed on May 10 that Russian forces struck the command post near Chasiv Yar (12km west of Bakhmut), killing Ukrainian Chief Advisor to the Directorate for Domestic and Humanitarian Policy Alexei Titarenko.[11] Russian milbloggers speculated that the strike may have killed other high-ranking Ukrainian commanders and officials and stated that the strike has prompted completely unsubstantiated rumors, which Ukrainian officials have explicitly denied, that it killed Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valery Zaluzhnyi.[12] Milbloggers acknowledged that the strike likely did not kill Zaluzhnyi but argued that it may be affecting his decisions to attend certain events.[13] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that all the Ukrainian commanders in question are alive and that claims about the killing of Ukrainian commanders are a part of a Russian information operation aimed at degrading Ukrainian morale.[14] ISW assessed that Russian ultranationalists recently claimed that Russian forces struck a vehicle carrying Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Commander General Ihor Tantsyura to frame Russian operations as limiting Ukrainian abilities to conduct counterattacks in the Bakhmut area.[15] Russian sources have also largely framed increasingly routine series of Russian air and missile strikes as similarly constraining potential upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[16] There is no evidence to support these Russian claims.

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Plus, there's only so many ways to get into Crimea (which I understand works both ways). I don't see Ukraine pulling off a massive amphibious landing from the sea, so Russia basically has to defend two points and hope their missile defense is up to the task at Kerch.

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Does Ukraine have enough boats for amphibious assault to be plausible? If so, would it make sense to feint one to draw Russian troops to the west and further away from advancing Ukrainian troops to the northeast of Crimea to aid the offensive, assuming an offensive moving south to Melitopol and potentially then marching west towards Mariupol?

Just a thought that hit me as I read your comment.

This is what they're claiming is a Kinzhal?



Link

Actual Kinzhal





Are y'all seriously buying this bullshite? It looks like a BETAB-500 concrete piercing bomb.

Just like ashli babbits

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This is what they're claiming is a Kinzhal?

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The US has technical readout data from the Patriot that confirms that it intercepted a Kinzhal.

Twitter - @John_A_Ridge

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Regarding questions about the geometry of the debris not matching Kinzhal's nose section. Per
@AndreiBtvt
, it seems this debris is not the nose of the missile, rather it is the warhead itself. Overall, it seems similar to the BETAB-500ShP, a 500 kg anti-concrete bomb.

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To clarify, it seems that Kinzhal's warhead is directly derived from the BETAB-500ShP, a 500 kg parachute-retarded anti-concrete bomb, sans the parachute compartment.

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This makes sense - the outer body of the missile would have been destroyed or ripped off when intercepted or hitting the ground, the solid penetrator would much more likely have withstood such impacts.

It is possible for both to be true…patriot shot one down, and Ukraine is displaying something else because they don’t have it anymore…we do. The wreckage they are displaying dosent look like one to me…maybe there are other pics…I will go look.

Thanks for posting. That clears it up.

You are welcome.

I surf all these accounts every day. For the last few months there has been a lot of repetition and retweeting. Because I’ve surfed the war for so long twitter’s algorithms have noticed and serve me up all kinds of Ukraine related tweets. It’s is pretty easy to differentiate between good sources and bots. The Russian content on twitter sucks compared to Telegram. The Russians prefer Telegram, there is a LOT of Russian content on Telegram.