re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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With the counteroffensive likely coming soon, does anyone want to irresponsibly speculate with some wild predictions?

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As most of us that are a bit obsessed with this war, I have spent way too much time looking at maps and reading military opinions. But that road only leads to confusion so instead of predicting where, I’ll chicken out with a few observations.

Number one: the use of drones in this offensive will make all pre-offensive thought antiquated. We are not prepared to see the effect of these weapons but it will be profound.

Number Two: the Ukrainians have been and will continue to be unpredictable to a degree that confounds Western defense experts, let alone the Russians.

Number Three: I don’t believe that anyone knows where the main Ukrainian attack will take place, not even the Ukrainians. Here we have it -

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These are essentially diversionary/fixing attacks. But don't forget that the Kharkiv offensive started out as a diversionary attack and ended up being the greatest success Ukraine has had in this war. If one of these attains a breakthrough, reserve forces could still be poured through to exploit it.

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I’ve been thinking the same thing. I believe the Ukrainians have made a list of 10-12 places where the Russians are weakest AND the logistical network on the Ukrainian side is optimal. They will hit a number of these places and see what falls out. If they get traction, they keep going – IF they can logistically support the offensive. But first and foremost, logistics will be the final arbiter of whether an attack is diversionary or a major, sustained push and that decision will only be made when the attack initially becomes successful.

There are a number of places with very weak Russian defenses but poor logistics. Crossing the Dnieper is a good example of this. Even though a city like Kherson is able to hide large numbers of troops, vehicles and supplies, logistical support over that river would require almost total air defense on a sustained basis. I’ve been wrong before but I don’t think that can happen.

On the other hand, the logistics networks into a number of places in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas are very well established. However, once they would break into these areas, they would run into a difficult road network. Especially in the Donbas. But it can be done and I believe at one or two places in the East the Ukrainians will have another Kharkiv-type success. But if so, it will depend on logistics, not weaponry.

That leaves everyone’s favorite, Zaporizhzhia. Again, logistics will make the decision and in this regard places like Tokmak and Polhony attract the eye. These places have the roads and expected or not, you can’t play bait and switch with the supply chain. Entrenched fuel lines will help, but if we want to take a wild assed guess as to where it happens, don’t look at the Russians, look at the roads.

Finally, an assumption. I believe the Ukrainians have the weapons to destroy the three Crimean bridges. The US DoD insists it won’t be ATACMS and the Storm Shadows seem to still be in the UK, but if the Ukrainians are to take Crimea, these bridges have to go. Especially the Kerch Bridge. So I don’t think the Ukrainians will invade Crimea but will cut it off and wait until the Russians escape. And then we will see a real parade.


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don’t look at the Russians, look at the roads.


I would imagine that a few hundred very heavy armored vehicles and whatnot rolling down any road would pretty quickly reduce it to hammered dogshit? Would this be a safe assumption?

Esp tracked vehicles

My only source: LINK

It is a good read, and wow, a 76 year old guy in a recon unit!

What a waste of a life.

Telling me that you never served in the military w/o actually telling me that you served in the military.

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Telling me that you never served in the military w/o actually telling me that you served in the military.

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If he was serving in the military, we wouldn't know he died in Ukraine.

Another “humanitarian” tard. They can’t openly support Putin so they become humanist.

They don’t give two shits about this kid.

Brainwashed kid. He wasn’t old enough yet to truly understand the government’s manipulation of him

In your opinion, which adds up to dry shite.