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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:07 pm to
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138905 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

Okay, you think the US is going to spend 10 to 20 times what they've spent so far. The US spent 2 trillion after twenty years in Afghanistan, and I'm skeptical this conflict will last that long. It really just seems like you don't understand the scale of the spending, if you are throwing out figures in the trillions so casually.


How much do you think it costs to rebuild not only a country but its entire industrial base?
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

How much do you think it costs to rebuild not only a country but its entire industrial base?



Again, do you understand that total is included in direct investments which have economic outputs attached? Rebuilding its industrial base is going to be dependent on a lot of factors, but given that something like Phillips investments in the Taiwanese semiconductor industry were something like 150 million in the 1990s, I'm going to suggest that it is going to be a lot cheaper than the trillion totals. It's like you have no frame of reference other than to be aghast at the total amount of spending. It's getting towards OML levels.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8165 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:16 pm to
While drones have already changed the nature of warfare, the use of mass cheap drones is going to completely rewrite some warfighting doctrine.

If they do what I think they are going to do, we are going to see shock and awe v2.0
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8165 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:20 pm to
I saw an article the other day discussing Russia's attempts to jam Starlink signals. They are working very hard to come up with a way to do so.

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/spacex-beating-russian-jamming-attack-was-eyewatering-dod-official/
quote:

WASHINGTON: The US military’s electronic warfare enterprise needs to take a page from SpaceX when it comes to responding to new threats, the Pentagon’s director for electromagnetic warfare said today.

After SpaceX sent Starlink terminals to Ukraine in February in an apparent effort to help Ukraine maintain its internet connection amid war with Russia, SpaceX founder Elon Musk claimed that Russia had jammed Starlink terminals in the country for hours at a time. After a software update, Starlink was operating normally, said Musk, who added on March 25 that the constellation had “resisted all hacking & jamming attempts” in Ukraine.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/18/discord-leaks-starlink-ukraine/
quote:

Russia’s quest to sabotage Ukrainian forces’ internet access by targeting the Starlink satellite operations that billionaire Elon Musk has provided to Kyiv since the war’s earliest days appears to be more advanced than previously known, according to a classified U.S. intelligence report obtained by The Washington Post.

Moscow has experimented for months with its Tobol electronic warfare systems in a bid to disrupt Starlink’s transmissions in Ukraine, the top-secret assessment, which has not been previously disclosed, contends.

The document, among a cache of sensitive materials leaked online through the messaging platform Discord, dates to March and does not indicate whether any of Russia’s tests have been successful. But the intelligence finding is striking nonetheless as it appears to affirm what observers had only hypothesized previously: that a program ostensibly designed to protect the Kremlin’s satellites can be employed instead to attack those used by its adversaries.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

The US spent 2 trillion after twenty years in Afghanistan, and I'm skeptical this conflict will last that long. It really just seems like you don't understand the scale of the spending, if you are throwing out figures in the trillions so casually.


Just plan curiosity got me a few numbers

Dollars spent for WWII in 2023 dollars - ~$4 trillion
The Marshall Plan in 2023 dollars - $176 billion
Pre Marshall Plan investment ($17B) in 2023 - $230 billion
Post WWII Japan in 2023 dollars -$30 billion

Going off of that, it costs a hell of a lot less to rebuild than fight.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8165 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:46 pm to
quote:

You have been vocal in this thread about our spending on Ukraine, have you been equally vocal about all the other government spending?

It matters because it establishes if you are just a troll or not. If you have been arguing against all of the spending, not just the Ukraine spending, then I wouldn't class you as a troll. However, if you only complain about the spending on Ukraine and not about all the other spending, then you come across as a Russian talking point troll.

Which are you?


Your refusal to answer provides the answer...troll, as suspected.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20968 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

While drones have already changed the nature of warfare, the use of mass cheap drones is going to completely rewrite some warfighting doctrine.

If they do what I think they are going to do, we are going to see shock and awe v2.0


Yeah, that's why I disagree with those people who suggest that Ukraine's spring offensive will be a little here and a little there for a while.

The greatest impact of new weapons systems is immediately after first use, when the enemy has not had time to adapt, and Ukraine will be using a great number of new weapons systems -- not just new drones (and possibly drone swarms).

It's why I very much hope that GLSDB is arriving in time for this offensive. It would be good for Ukraine to hit fuel and ammo depots, C2, vehicle repair yards, etc. right at the outset. Ukraine could throw the Russian rear into disarray right as it hits the front with everything from drones to Bradleys to Leopards.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8165 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

It would be good for Ukraine to hit fuel and ammo depots, C2, vehicle repair yards, etc. right at the outset. Ukraine could throw the Russian rear into disarray right as it hits the front with everything from drones to Bradleys to Leopards.


Classic US offensive doctrine.

Can Ukraine combine all the various weapon systems (including the battle management system discussed a few posts back) into a cohesive command and control atmosphere?

Can Ukraine deny the airspace over the offensive to the Russians to the point where Ukraine can bring in ground attack aircraft? If they can use drones, HIMARS, JDAM, and HARM combined with US intelligence gathering to suppress Russia's air defense systems and then use Patriot to deny the airspace to the Russians, then perhaps they can achieve at least localized air superiority.

Sounds like we're going to find out.

Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5647 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

While drones have already changed the nature of warfare, the use of mass cheap drones is going to completely rewrite some warfighting doctrine.


Lots of innovation going on. A relatively cheap long range drone (up to 750 km) in the works by One Way Aerospace sounds promising.

AQ 400 - SCYTHE

Long Range Series Specs
This post was edited on 4/24/23 at 2:49 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8165 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 2:54 pm to
That puts Moscow fully in range of this drone.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 3:15 pm to
The theory is to hit some Russian cities and make them prioritize where they put their air defense. Then exploit the gaps.
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
24238 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

It's why I very much hope that GLSDB is arriving in time for this offensive.

They're already there and being claimed to have been used by Ukrainians and intercepted (at least once) by Russia.

How many we sent is something I don't know and I would imagine you would want a significant amount to really cause mass confusion amongst the russian command.
Reuters
quote:

March 28 (Reuters) - Russia said on Tuesday it had shot down a U.S.-supplied GLSDB guided smart bomb fired by Ukrainian forces, the first time Moscow has claimed to have intercepted one of the weapons that could double Ukraine's battlefield firing range.

Newsweek
quote:

Ukraine Launches U.S. 'Small Diameter' Bomb With Longer Range Than HIMARS
Posted by Tantal
Member since Sep 2012
19821 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

Russia gets eastern Ukraine and western Ukraine is a European client state.

Can we give Louisiana back to France and keep the rest of the purchase?
This post was edited on 4/24/23 at 3:42 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20968 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 4:27 pm to
quote:

They're already there and being claimed to have been used by Ukrainians and intercepted (at least once) by Russia.



I mean, Russia claimed to have shot one down, but they didn't provide any evidence. They claimed to have destroyed a Leopard tank as well. I just put zero stock in that.

I don't think that there's any way that GLSDB was in Ukraine in March, and I also don't think that Russia is going to be able to shoot them down, because GLSDB is a small projectile that Russian radar isn't going to be able to see until it's too late.

EDIT: And if Ukraine was using GLSDB, we would know it. There would be all kinds of things blowing up in the areas just out of HIMARS range.
This post was edited on 4/24/23 at 4:28 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

Again, do you understand that total is included in direct investments which have economic outputs attached? Rebuilding its industrial base is going to be dependent on a lot of factors, but given that something like Phillips investments in the Taiwanese semiconductor industry were something like 150 million in the 1990s, I'm going to suggest that it is going to be a lot cheaper than the trillion totals. It's like you have no frame of reference other than to be aghast at the total amount of spending. It's getting towards OML levels.


The biggest problem is his argument implies no private investment in rebuilding effort which is always part of the rebuild because capitalism is the economic goat. It’s already started and the war is ongoing. I’ve already posted private efforts by American oil companies for Ukrainian energy post war.

Yes, trillions will be spent on rebuilding Ukraine, but a lot will come from corporations as investment in future revenue streams and this should be encouraged by western govts. Net cost will likely end up being positive return, assuming a Ukrainian victory and peacetime security.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 4:58 pm to
If the security situation is stable, lots of companies will invest in Ukraine. That's the understated effect of an American-led world. As long as we are in 'charge,' the countries in our orbit stand the chance of seeing their investments through.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 4:59 pm to
quote:

If the security situation is stable, lots of companies will invest in Ukraine. That's the understated effect of an American-led world. As long as we are in 'charge,' the countries in our orbit stand the chance of seeing their investments through.


100%
Posted by nitwit
Member since Oct 2007
13091 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 4:59 pm to
Sorry, but this convincing argument is inconsistent with the notion that we are just “printing money” and airlifting it to Ukraine where corrupt clowns wheelbarrow it off to undisclosed locations.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 5:03 pm to
I heard they just opened the Bombay doors and dropped the cash out like a rapper at a strip club
Posted by SteelerBravesDawg
Member since Sep 2020
43337 posts
Posted on 4/24/23 at 5:37 pm to
quote:


Tucker Carlson is out at FoxNews

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